I really like Tuesday’s 14-game MLB slate. It has a nice mix of high-end and value pitching options to choose from and the stacks that I want to target crystallized fairly quickly. I feel that I have a good read on the slate and where I want to go with my ownership.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Chris Archer (FD-$10,200 / DK-$12,400)
Archer struck out 10 Blue Jays in his last start while allowing three runs over seven innings in Toronto. He will get another crack at the Jays this time in Tampa Bay where Archer has been consistently better over his career. Archer has a 33.1% strikeout rate at home this season while allowing just a .284 wOBA. Archer will be my main Cash game pitcher on both sites and is worth GPP consideration also.
Value
Jeff Samardzija (FD-$8,400 / DK-$8,600)
While I think Jimmy Nelson will have a solid outing and likely limit the Giants’ hitters, I prefer Samardzija for his strikeout upside against the Brewers who have the highest strikeout rate (25.5%) against righties this season. Samardzija racked up 10 strikeouts against the Brewers earlier this season while tossing seven innings of one-run ball in Milwaukee. With a favorable pitcher’s park in San Francisco, he should be able to limit the long ball on his way to a high strikeout night. Samardzija can be used in Cash lineups on two-pitcher sites and GPP lineups. I also like Charlie Morton(GPP) and Lance Lynn(Cash) as value pitchers to consider.
Darkhorse
Patrick Corbin (FD-$8,700 / DK-$9,400)
After my initial glance at the pitchers on Tuesday’s slate, I didn’t think that Corbin would be one of my recommended picks. However, as I did my research and looked at the numbers I think he is the perfect contrarian GPP option. He has pitched lights out over his last two starts without allowing a run over 15 1/3 innings to the Astros and Cubs while racking up 15 strikeouts (he even had 10 Ks against the Giants in his previous outing). Meanwhile, he will face a Mets’ team that is in free fall against lefties. Over the last 30 days, the Mets have the highest strikeout rate (29.9%) and rank 29th in wOBA and wRC+ to lefties. He is a decent sized road favorite and I expect him to go overlooked by the DFS community.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Cubs vs. Homer Bailey
You have to consider stacking against Bailey every time he takes the mound. Even more so when he is pitching at home where he has a 14.33 ERA with a .544 wOBA allowed and 3.31 HR/9. The Cubs just scored six runs off Bailey in his previous start. Listing out five Cubs’ bats as you will want to get as much exposure as possible.
Kris Bryant (FD-$4,300 / DK-$5,000) – Bryant has eight extra-base hits over his last nine games and has a .390 wOBA and .247 ISO versus right-handers this season.
Anthony Rizzo (FD-$4,500 / DK-$5,200) – Rizzo is batting .429 with five extra-base hits over his last seven games and has gone 8-for-21 (.381) with two doubles and two long balls off Bailey in his career.
Ian Happ (FD-$3,200 / DK-$4,500) – Happ has a .366 wOBA and .308 ISO versus righties this season and has three homers in his last four games.
Alex Avila (FD-$2,800 / DK-$3,700) – Avila has a four-game hitting streak including a home run and has hit all 14 of his homers this season off righties with a .393 wOBA and .240 ISO.
Kyle Schwarber (FD-$3,500 / DK-$4,100) – Schwarber has a .257 ISO versus righties this season.
Diamondbacks vs. Tommy Milone
My Diamondbacks’ stack didn’t go as well as I had hoped last night but I’m going right back to them again tonight in an even better matchup. Milone has been an absolute gas can this season allowing 11 home runs (10 to righties) in just 33 innings pitched. He gave up five runs to the Diamondbacks a couple of starts back and has allowed a .452 wOBA to righties this season. Just going with a three-man D’Backs stack and looking to use Corbin as my fourth in a GPP on FanDuel.
Paul Goldschmidt (FD-$4,100 / DK-$5,300) – Goldschmidt is hitless in his last three games but has a .401 wOBA and .232 ISO versus lefties this season and he is 2-for-5 with a homer off Milone.
JD Martinez (FD-$3,900 / DK-$4,800) – Martinez has dominated lefties this season with a .564 wOBA and .518 ISO.
AJ Pollock (FD-$3,200 / DK-$4,100) – Pollock has a five-game hitting streak and went deep last night. He has a .208 ISO versus lefties this year.
Contrarian Stack
Reds vs. John Lackey
A Reds’ stack should not be contrarian tonight but I think it might be with so much attention focused on the Cubs side. Lackey has pitched better over the last month (3.06 ERA) but the Reds are familiar with him and have had some success against him during his career.
Joey Votto (FD-$4,400 / DK-$5,000) – Votto has posted a .472 wOBA and .331 ISO at home versus righties this season and has a .415 wOBA in 27 career at-bats versus Lackey.
Scooter Gennett (FD-$2,900 / DK-$3,900) – Gennett is 10-for-27 (.370) with a home run against Lackey in his career and carries a .390 wOBA and .266 ISO versus righties this season.
Zack Cozart (FD-$3,400 / DK-$4,300) – Check to make sure Cozart is in the lineup, if not look to pivot to Adam Duvall. Cozart is 7-for-20 (.350) with a pair of homers off Lackey in his career.
Billy Hamilton (FD-$3,300 / DK-$4,000) – Hamilton is batting .355 with seven steals in 31 career at-bats against Lackey.
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