MLB – On the Hill – August 26

Another strong night of pitcher recommendations Wednesday by picking the top two pitchers on the slate with Jose Fernandez and Carlos Martinez and a solid performance from Rich Hill in his Dodgers’ debut. Too bad my Julio Teheran pick blew up in my face, although I was right that Zack Greinke wasn’t a great play either. Oh well, onto Friday night’s 15-game slate where there are quite a few pitchers of interest.

Also, I will have a special edition of the “On the Hill” article on Saturday to help DailyOverlay founder, Greg, in his quest to win the DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship event in Toronto.

Ace

Justin Verlander (FD-$9,600 / DK-$10,400)

I am going to get a little value with my Ace pick tonight going Verlander who has been sensational since the beginning of July with a 1.97 ERA and 9.7 K/9 over his last 10 starts. He is a huge home favorite against Ricky Nolasco and the Angels. His strikeout upside may be limited facing an Angels’ team that has only struck out 15.8% to righties this season but Verlander does have a 26.8% strikeout rate against Angels’ hitters in his career. Verlander is a strong Cash and GPP option.

Value

Steven Wright (FD-$9,400 / DK-$9,400)

Wright is coming off a complete game shutout in his last outing and has the capability to pitch deep into the game tonight against a Royals’ team that might be willing to chase the knuckler with a league-low 6.3% walk rate against righties this season. The Royals also rank in the bottom three in wOBA and wRC+ against righties this season and Wright has held Royals hitters to a .224 wOBA in 45 career plate appearances. I prefer Verlander at a similar price point on FanDuel for Cash games but Wright could be a solid GPP pivot. On Draftkings at $1,000 less than Verlander he is a viable Cash or GPP option.

David Phelps (FD-$7,000 / DK-$8,700)

Phelps actually ranks as my top pitcher of the entire slate tonight. He has pitched very well since joining the rotation with a 1.31 ERA and 11.32 K/9 over four starts and has gone deeper into the game in each successive outing. Tonight he will pitch at home as a big favorite with a low Vegas run total against the Padres who have the league worst wOBA (.291) and wRC+ (81) against righties with a 24.7% strikeout rate. Phelps is an excellent Cash game option if you are looking to save some salary or GPP option on either site.

Darkhorse

Gio Gonzalez (FD-$8,100 / DK-$6,100)

After a couple of rough months in May and June, Gonzalez has pitched better over the last couple of months with a solid 3.38 ERA since July 1. He has a good matchup tonight pitching at home as a big favorite against the Rockies who have struck out 22.5% (9th highest) against lefties this season with the 7th lowest wRC+ (90). They have also, as expected, been worse outside of Coors Field with a 23.6% strikeout rate (4th highest) and an 83 wRC+ (5th lowest). I probably won’t pay up for Gonzalez on FanDuel but priced at just $6,100 on DraftKings makes him a Cash and GPP option on DraftKings.

On the Hill – Results

Wednesday

Season

• DK Cost is the average DraftKings cost per pitcher selected
• DK Pts is the average DraftKings points scored per pitcher selected
• DO Score is the Daily Overlay score for each type

Come back to DailyOverlay later today for the MLB Consensus list and some sample MLB lineups.

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