It is an interesting 10-game slate for a Monday night in the MLB. There are a lot of evenly matched pitching matchup whether it be on the high-end with Corey Kluber facing Luis Severino or in the mid-range with Jeff Samardzija versus Jhoulys Chacin. Because of this, I am not in love with any of the pitching options at their price so I’m going to roll the dice and go cheap while paying up for hitters. On the hitting side, I am head over heels for three teams which I will be loading up on. They will not be contrarian but I’ll go contrarian with my pitching instead of hitting on this slate.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Mike Montgomery (FD-$6,600 / DK-$7,100)
Like I mentioned in the intro I’m going to roll the dice with my pitching tonight. It is a fairly risky move since there are high-priced ace pitching options but I have a hunch that some of the cheap options are going to be solid enough to make it worthwhile. Montgomery is my guy tonight in both Cash and GPPs. He tossed six shutout innings against the Reds in his last start with four strikeouts on 89 pitches. Montgomery will face a Pirates’ team that has been brutal against lefties the last two weeks with a 22.3% strikeout rate, .207 wOBA and 23 wRC+ over their last 112 plate appearances. The Cubs are a decent-sized favorite playing at home and need to keep winning to make the playoffs. Be bold and go with Montgomery.
Value
Ian Kennedy (FD-$6,300 / DK-$6,000)
Kennedy is another cheap option that could outperform his salary tonight. He will face the Rays who still have one of the highest strikeout rates on the year (24.8%) against right-handed pitchers. Kennedy has also had some success against Rays’ hitters in his career posting a 31.3% strikeout rate in 131 plate appearances. I’m willing to give Kennedy a chance as my #2 pitcher on two-pitcher sites in both Cash and GPP lineups. Just think of all the hitters you can get with a Montgomery/Kennedy pairing.
Darkhorse
Drew Pomeranz (FD-$8,700 / DK-$8,800)
Pomeranz is the most expensive pitcher I’m recommending tonight but I would limit my exposure to him for GPPs. He will face a Blue Jays’ team that has been hitting fairly well recently against lefties but Pomeranz has had their number over his career allowing just a .203 wOBA and no home runs in 78 plate appearances. He also has a strong 25.6% strikeout rate against Blue Jays’ hitters. While other DFS players will be rostering Jeff Samardzija or Jhoulys Chacin as mid-priced options look to pivot to Pomeranz.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Rockies vs. Jordan Zimmermann
I wish I could play all eight Rockies’ hitters tonight against Zimmermann and the Tigers’ bullpen. He has allowed seven runs in each of his last three starts. He allows a ton of contact with just a 14.6% strikeout rate and has allowed 1.97 HR/9 to lefties and 1.65 HR/9 to righties this season. Like I said grab any Rockies’ hitter in the lineup tonight but here are my top four.
Charlie Blackmon (FD-$4,800 / DK-$5,500) – Blackmon is my top play on the entire slate. He has nine hits over the last five games and has posted a .521 wOBA and .440 ISO at home versus righties this season.
Nolan Arenado (FD-$4,900 / DK-$5,300) – Arenado is 6-for-12 with three doubles and a homer off Zimmermann in his career.
Mark Reynolds (FD-$3,700 / DK-$4,900) – Reynolds has two homers in his last three games and is 5-for-11 with a pair of long balls off Zimmermann in his career.
Carlos Gonzalez (FD-$3,100 / DK-$3,700) – Zimmermann is so bad that I’m even recommending Cargo. He has a respectable .322 wOBA in August and hit .391 during the Rockies most recent six-game home stand with two doubles and a home run.
Orioles vs. Marco Gonzales
Gonzales is not ready to be starting games in the majors right now. Through five starts this season he has a 7.40 ERA and has allowed 3.05 HR/9. Both lefties and righties have a wOBA over .400 against the southpaw this year.
Jonathan Schoop (FD-$4,100 / DK-$4,600) – Schoop has a .419 wOBA and .328 ISO at home versus lefties this season.
Manny Machado (FD-$4,200 / DK-$5,400) – Machado has posted a .404 wOBA and .336 ISO this month and has a .379 wOBA and .290 ISO at home versus lefties this season.
Tim Beckham (FD-$3,800 / DK-$4,700) – Beckham has a home run off Gonzales in three career at-bats and is riding a six-game hitting streak.
Adam Jones (FD-$3,300 / DK-$4,100) – Jones has doubled in back-to-back games and has a .357 wOBA and .246 ISO at home versus lefties.
Contrarian Stack
Mariners vs. Chris Tillman
I only list the Mariners as a “contrarian” stack since I expect them to be the lowest owned of the three stack I have listed. That said, they should also be fairly popular but with my pay down for pitching strategy tonight you can get all the hitters you want. Tillman has allowed a wOBA over .400 to both sides of the plate this season and righties have a 2.80 HR/9 rate (5.25 at home).
Nelson Cruz (FD-$4,100 / DK-$5,000) – Cruz has hit 25 of his 31 home runs off righties this season with a .289 ISO. He also has two doubles and two homers off Tillman in 16 career at-bats.
Robinson Cano (FD-$3,500 / DK-$4,600) – Cano is batting .417 with a pair of home runs in 36 career at-bats versus Tillman.
Yonder Alonso (FD-$3,400 / DK-$4,500) – Alonso has posted a .382 wOBA and .241 ISO versus righties this season.
Mike Zunino (FD-$3,000 / DK-$3,400) – Zunino has seven hits over his last four games including three for extra-bases and has a .251 ISO versus righties this season.
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