Yesterday’s recommendation of paying down for pitching had mixed results. Mike Montgomery did what I expected and was a good cheap pivot off the high-priced Ace pitchers to fit in a bunch of big bats. Unfortunately, the Rockies could only muster three runs against Jordan Zimmermann and the Tigers’ bullpen. Oh, well I still think I would play it that way again if faced with the same slate.
Tuesday has a full 15-game slate and only one high-priced ace on the mound. I will be paying up for Chris Sale tonight and the looking at some value for my second pitcher on two-pitcher sites and discount bats.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Chris Sale (FD-$10,900 / DK-$13,200)
Sale has had some tough matchups recently with four of his last five starts coming against the Indians and Yankees which resulted in less than stellar results for the big southpaw. I expect Sale to get back on track against the Blue Jays. He shut down the Jays in Toronto ringing up 11 strikeouts over seven shutout innings in July. He has also had success, in general, against Jays’ hitters allowing just a .252 wOBA with a 28.6% strikeout rate in 147 plate appearances. He is a big Vegas favorite and should be a lock for Cash games on all sites.
Value
Luke Weaver (FD-$8,400 / DK-$7,600)
Weaver has only made 11 starts in his big-league career but three of them have come against the Brewers. He has excelled in those starts with a 2.95 ERA and 26 strikeouts in 18+ innings. Brewers’ hitters have just a .229 wOBA against him in 52 plate appearances with a massive 40.4% strikeout rate. Weaver is the perfect complement to Sale on two-pitcher sites in Cash lineups and can be used in GPPs on any site.
Darkhorse
Mark Leiter (FD-$6,600 / DK-$6,800)
Leiter tossed seven shutout innings with five strikeouts against the Marlins in his last start. In five starts this season, Leiter has performed well posting a 3.18 ERA. The strikeout upside might not be there against a Braves’ team that only strikes out at an 18.4% clip against righties this season but he can provide solid production for a cheap salary with a pitcher-friendly umpire and favorable weather conditions (cooler with the wind blowing in). Leiter is worth a gamble as a GPP flier.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Twins vs. James Shields
Shields hasn’t had a “blow up” start since July but tonight feels like a spot that one could occur. He just faced the Twins in Chicago last Wednesday and gave up three runs over six innings. I like taking hitters(teams) that face a pitcher for the second time in a short timeframe. Shield has also had trouble with Twins hitters in his career allowing a .375 wOBA and nine homers in 156 plate appearances.
Eddie Rosario (FD-$3,400 / DK-$4,200) – Rosario has been a monster against righties at home with a .448 wOBA and .335 ISO.
Brian Dozier (FD-$4,200 / DK-$4,500) – Dozier has a .511 wOBA against Shields in 40 plate appearances including four homers.
Jorge Polanco (FD-$3,600 / DK-$4,400) – Polanco has been hot at the plate, batting .344 with four doubles and four homers over his last eight games. He has gone 5-for-11 with a pair of homers off Shield in his career.
Byron Buxton (FD-$3,800 / DK-$4,900) – Buxton is coming off a three-homer game on Sunday and has hit two homers off Shields in 11 career at-bats.
Reds vs. Chris Flexen
Flexen has had a rocky start to his big league career with a 5.79 ERA in his first six starts. He has been even worse in his three road starts with an 8.18 ERA. Both righties and lefties have been hitting Flexen with a .422 and .389 wOBA respectively against the right-hander. Long balls have also been a problem allowing 1.46 HR/9 to lefties and 2.30 HR/9 to right-handed hitters.
Joey Votto (FD-$4,200 / DK-$5,100) – Not that Votto is bad on the road but he has excelled at home this season with a .463 wOBA and .325 ISO against righties.
Scott Schebler (FD-$3,000 / DK-$3,700) – Schebler has been hitting well since returning from the DL, batting .370 with six extra-base hits over his last eight games.
Eugenio Suarez (FD-$3,900 / DK-$4,200) – Suarez enjoys playing at home. He has a .428 wOBA and .366 ISO versus righties at home this season.
Scooter Gennett (FD-$3,300 / DK-$4,100) – Gennett has crushed righties this season posting a .387 wOBA and .267 ISO.
Contrarian Stack
Red Sox vs. Brett Anderson
The Red Sox only have the ninth highest Vegas implied run total on the slate tonight, so I’m hoping they will be a little lower owned and contrarian. Anderson started six games for the Cubs earlier this season and posted an 8.18 ERA and 2.09 WHIP. He allows a lot of contact with just a 14.4% strikeout rate and while he limits the long ball I expect the Red Sox to have runners circling the bases on hit after hit. Leaving it as the three-man stack so you can pair them with Sale on FanDuel.
Hanley Ramirez (FD-$2,800 / DK-$) – It hasn’t been the best season for Ramirez but he does have a .406 wOBA and .375 ISO on the road versus lefties.
Mookie Betts (FD-$3,800 / DK-$) – Betts has a .359 wOBA and 15.8% walk rate against lefties this season. He should be on base all night against Anderson.
Rajai Davis (FD-$2,500 / DK-$) – Davis has collected hits in each of his first two games with the Red Sox and will be looking to run when he is on base.
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