MLB – On the Hill – August 3

I was able to avoid some of the big disappointments last night including Madison Bumgarner and Carlos Carrasco but was unable to find the top plays such as Dylan Bundy and Jacob deGrom. Today features a big 12-game night slate with only a few afternoon games. There are some solid pitching options to choose from and I go way off the board for my Darkhorse pick.

Ace

Johnny Cueto (FD-$10,700 / DK-$11,900)

Cueto comes in as one of the only big favorites of the night pitching on the road against the Phillies. I expect the Giants to bounce back after the Phillies pounded Madison Bumgarner last night. The Phillies rank in the bottom three in wOBA and wRC+ against righties while striking out 21.5%. Cueto is my top Cash game play tonight and is also a viable GPP option.

Value

Marco Estrada (FD-$8,100 / DK-$9,900)

I like how tonight’s matchup against the Astros shakes out for Estrada. The Astros strike out 24.1% (4th highest) against righties and he should get an additional strikeout boost with Bill Miller calling the balls and strikes tonight. He does have some blow-up potential against a powerful Astros’ lineup so I would limit my exposure to him to GPP lineups.

Steven Matz (FD-$9,500 / DK-$8,800)

Matz is the type of solid, consistent pitcher you like to roster in Cash games. He will usually get you about six innings with 5-6 strikeouts and a good chance for a win. Tonight is no different facing a Yankees’ team that ranks in the bottom five in wOBA, ISO and wRC+ against righties this season. Matz is a solid Cash game option.

Darkhorse

Tyler Duffey (FD-$5,400 / DK-$4,000)

I am going deep for my Darkhorse pick tonight, calling on Duffey who was recently moved to the bullpen after failing to pitch past the third inning in each of his last two starts. However, Duffey is getting another chance tonight against the Indians and I expect him to make the most of it. The Twins have been hitting well in their series against the Indians and I expect that to continue against Trevor Bauer. Also, Duffey has fared well against the Indians in his career with a .270 wOBA allowed and 19 strikeouts over 84 plate appearances. He is a longshot but with such a small price he could be worth it to stack up some hitters in the Rockies/Dodgers game in a GPP.

On the Hill – Results

Tuesday

Season

• DK Cost is the average DraftKings cost per pitcher selected
• DK Pts is the average DraftKings points scored per pitcher selected
• DO Score is the Daily Overlay score for each type

Come back to DailyOverlay later today for the MLB Consensus list and some sample MLB lineups.

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