Starting off another week of MLB DFS with a small seven-game slate on Monday night. I’ll be going to the Brewers/Twins game tonight, so my rule is to always stack the hitters for “your team” when you go see them play. So, the Brewers make the list as my contrarian stack of the night. Be sure to read the rest of my article to find out who else to stack and if there is any pitcher to use other than Max “pain in the neck” Scherzer.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Max Scherzer (FD-$11,100 / DK-$12,800)
Scherzer was had a pain in the neck in his last outing, cutting it short with just one inning pitched. He is at home on Monday night so he shouldn’t have the same problem sleeping in his own bed. He is by far the most dominant pitcher on the slate as shown by Vegas installing the Nationals as a huge home favorite against the Marlins. While it is going to be hard to fade Scherzer in any lineup, you should probably at least do it in a GPP lineup or two just in case he is still a pain in the neck.
Value
Carlos Martinez (FD-$8,900 / DK-$8,200)
Martinez has been a little hit-and-miss over the last month with a 5.82 ERA over his last six starts. However, with a high BABIP (.330) during that stretch and an xFIP (4.13) just a little higher than his season mark (3.64) he could have some positive regression coming his way. He is a small favorite on the road in Kansas City and has pitched a little better on the road than at home over his career. Martinez is a solid pitcher to pair with Scherzer on two-pitcher sites and as a GPP option if you want to fade Scherzer’s neck.
Darkhorse
Dylan Bundy (FD-$7,600 / DK-$7,400)
It’s dicey to recommend any pitcher as a Darkhorse option on Monday’s short slate. While Bundy’s opposition, JC Ramirez, will likely get some attention I’m looking on the other side of the field. Bundy is coming off his best start of the year tossing eight innings without allowing an earned run against the Royals with five strikeouts. As a pitcher that gives up quite a few fly balls, he will get a favorable park adjustment playing at Angel Stadium against an Angels’ team that ranks 28th in ISO versus right-handed pitchers this season. Bundy is only worth a GPP flier.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Nationals vs. Chris O’Grady
O’Grady just faced the Nationals in his last start in Miami and it did not go well for the southpaw as he gave up six runs in three innings. Now pitching in the Nationals home park doesn’t figure to go much better for the 27-year-old making just his sixth big league start. Right-handed hitters have done the most damage against O’Grady with a .425 wOBA and 2.40 HR/9 through his first five starts.
Ryan Zimmerman (FD-$3,200 / DK-$4,500) – Zimmerman has a .394 wOBA and .309 ISO versus lefties this season.
Anthony Rendon (FD-$3,300 / DK-$4,500) – Rendon has crushed lefties this season especially at home with a .514 wOBA and .379 ISO this season.
Howie Kendrick (FD-$2,600 / DK-$4,300) – Kendrick was 2-for-2 with a homer off O’Grady last week on his way to a 5-for-5 day.
Daniel Murphy (FD-$3,700 / DK-$5,000) – I’m okay with going with just the first three righties and skipping Murphy and Bryce Harper, especially on FanDuel if you want to fit in Scherzer. Murphy was 1-for-2 with a double versus O’Grady last week.
Padres vs. Tim Adleman
Since I’m saving my contrarian stack for “my” Brewers, I’ll give you the Padres as my second stack which I expect to also be somewhat contrarian. They are on the road in Cincinnati so they get a big positive park adjustment and will face Adleman who has allowed at least five runs in three of his last four starts and has allowed 24 home runs this season including a 2.29 HR/9 mark at home. Oh, and the Padres are cheap so pairing them with Scherzer is not a problem.
Jose Pirela (FD-$2,600 / DK-$3,400) – Pirela has a .348 wOBA and .220 ISO versus righties this season.
Yangervis Solarte (FD-$2,600 / DK-$3,700) – Solarte has two hits in each of his last two starts including a home run. He has a .354 wOBA and .209 ISO on the road versus righties this season.
Austin Hedges (FD-$2,300 / DK-$3,400) – Hedges is a cheap catching option capable of going deep with 14 homers this season including 13 against right-handed pitchers.
Wil Myers (FD-$3,100 / DK-$3,600) – Myers has three hits including a home run in his last two games and has a .379 wOBA and .317 ISO on the road versus righties this year.
Contrarian Stack
Brewers vs. Ervin Santana
Beyond the fact that I am going to the game and like to stack the Brewers when I see them play, Santana has not pitched as well at home (4.09 ERA) as he has on the road this season. He has also struggled giving up the long ball allowing 1.51 HR/9 to lefties and 2.08 HR/9 to righties at home this season.
Travis Shaw (FD-$3,300 / DK-$3,800) – Shaw has a .404 wOBA and .276 ISO versus righties this season.
Eric Thames (FD-$3,200 / DK-$3,900) – Thames has had some success against Santana in his career going 5-for-17 with a double and two homers.
Ryan Braun (FD-$4,100 / DK-$4,300) – Braun has a .358 wOBA and .288 ISO on the road versus right-handed pitching this season.
Orlando Arcia (FD-$2,900 / DK-$3,600) – Arcia is hot with seven hits over his last four games including four extra-base hits.
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