Ah, it was good to have baseball back over the weekend! Some one-off plays from my stacks on Friday performed well, but the stacks as a whole fell short on a big scoring night. Monday night’s 12-game slate could be another big scoring night with a lot of gas can pitchers taking the mound. As such hitting stack options are plentiful but finding pitchers is quite a challenge.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Lance McCullers (FD-$9,100 / DK-$11,500)
I may have 99% exposure to McCullers tonight with the 1% as a Mariners hedge stack against him. He is far and away the top option on an ugly looking slate for pitchers. McCullers will be pitching at home where he has been sensational over his career with a 2.18 ERA and 29.6% strikeout rate. He is a huge favorite and will be facing a group of Mariners’ hitters that have a 32.3% strikeout rate against McCullers in his career with just a .289 wOBA in 96 plate appearances. Cash and GPPs lock in McCullers, expect that one Mariners hedge stack.
Value
Tom Koehler (FD-$5,700 / DK-$5,900)
This is what this slate is driving me to, a recommendation of a pitcher with an 8.00 ERA this season. Koehler’s xFIP is almost three runs lower (5.29) as he has been somewhat unlucky this season with a .323 BABIP allowed, elevated HR/FB rate (23.1%) and very low strand rate (64.4%). What he has going for him is a matchup against the Phillies who have the sixth-highest strikeout rate (23.9%) against righties this season to go along with a bottom three ISO, wOBA and wRC+. The game is in pitcher-friendly Miami and Koehler and the Marlins are a decent sized favorite. Koehler is not a sexy option but with a cheap salary and good matchup he should be a good value option as your #2 pitcher on two-pitcher sites in Cash and maybe also GPPs.
Darkhorse
Brent Suter (FD-$6,600 / DK-$6,200)
If you don’t go with Koehler than a pivot to Suter at a similar salary should be considered. Suter has pitched well in his two starts with a 1.46 ERA and 27.7% strikeout rate while pitching against the Yankees and Orioles. He gets an easier opponent on Monday with the Brewers traveling to Pittsburgh to face the Pirates. The Pirates are in the middle of the pack in most offensive categories versus left-handed pitchers this season. With a good offense behind him, Suter should have a good chance for a win (despite what Vegas thinks). Suter can be a consideration in both Cash and GPPs as a #2 pitching option on two-pitcher sites.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Rangers vs. Chris Tillman
Tillman has struggled all season allowing at least four runs in six of 11 starts leading to a 7.90 ERA. He is due for some positive regression but a matchup with the Rangers who have the fourth-highest ISO versus right-handed pitchers doesn’t seem like a good spot for a turnaround. Both lefties and righties have flourished against Tillman this season so any player in the Rangers’ lineup is a viable option tonight.
Adrian Beltre (FD-$3,700 / DK-$4,100) – Beltre has a .381 wOBA versus righties this season and is 7-for-15 with two doubles and a homer off Tillman in his career.
Elvis Andrus (FD-$3,100 / DK-$3,900) – Andrus is having a career year which has included a .351 wOBA and eight of his 11 homers versus righties.
Nomar Mazara (FD-$3,100 / DK-$4,100) – Mazara fares much better against righties with a .345 wOBA and .208 ISO this season.
Shin-Soo Choo (FD-$3,200 / DK-$4,000) – Choo has a .340 wOBA versus righties and has a .571 OBP versus Tillman in 14 plate appearances.
Astros vs. Ariel Miranda
It is never a bad idea to stack the Astros, especially when they face a lefty where they have a league-high 122 wRC+ this season. Miranda has allowed four or more runs in three of his last five outings and has been very lucky with a .220 BABIP allowed. While he has pitched well at home, right-handed hitters have a .366 wOBA and 2.55 HR/9 against him when he pitches on the road this season. With the game in Houston, look to stack up the Astros’ righties.
George Springer (FD-$4,300 / DK-$5,600) – Springer has clubbed four home runs in 11 at-bats against Miranda in his career, including three this season.
Jose Altuve (FD-$4,400 / DK-$5,300) – Altuve is on fire with a nine-game hitting streak while batting .525 with four doubles, three homers, 11 RBIs, 12 runs and three steals during the streak.
Carlos Correa (FD-$4,200 / DK-$5,300) – Correa has a .457 wOBA and .237 ISO versus left-handed pitchers this season.
Evan Gattis (FD-$2,700 / DK-$4,200) – Gattis has hit four homers over his last nine games and has a .224 ISO versus lefties this season.
Contrarian Stack
Athletics vs. Jake Odorizzi
The A’s have started the second half of the season strong with a sweep of the Indians while scoring 17 runs. Odorizzi has allowed a lot of hard contact this season with a 37.4% rate and has included a 52% hard hit rate over his last three starts. He has also allowed 20 home runs this season for a 2.15 HR/9 giving up production to both sides of the plate.
Khris Davis (FD-$3,800 / DK-$4,000) – Davis has hit 24 of his 25 homers versus righties this season and has a .319 ISO versus righties at home this season.
Yonder Alonso (FD-$3,300 / DK-$4,000) – Alonso has hit 12 of his 21 homers at home versus righties this season with a .427 wOBA and .400 ISO.
Marcus Semien (FD-$2,400 / DK-$3,200) – Semien is 3-for-4 with a double and a homer off Odorizzi in his career.
Jed Lowrie (FD-$2,600 / DK-$2,600) – Lowrie homered on Sunday and has a .368 wOBA and .234 ISO at home versus righties this season.
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