It looks like you are going to need to pay up for some pitching on the 12-game Monday night slate. I have no confidence or good gut calls on the cheap pitching options. In fact, they all just make me sick to my stomach. I’m sure one or two of them will pitch well but your guess is about as good as mine (maybe Snell, maybe Ryu, maybe even Gausman), so I’m going to try and play it safe with pitching tonight. Since I am paying up for pitching I dug deep on the hitting side to find inexpensive stacking options that could have some upside in good matchups. Sure, I have an interest in the Dodgers, Astros and Diamondbacks but instead, I offer up three value stacks that include two inexpensive contrarian options.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Jacob deGrom (FD-$11,000 / DK-$13,400)
Yep, De Grom is expensive. Yep, he will still likely be the chalk. Yep, I am still taking him in my Cash game lineups. The only flaw I can see with DeGrom is that he is pitching on the road where he has a 4.63 ERA this season compared to a 2.27 mark at home. However, pitching in San Diego against the Padres’ offense sure doesn’t seem like it can be considered a negative. The Padres have the highest strikeout rate (25.6%) versus righties this season and rank in the bottom five in wOBA and wRC+. While pitchers like Zack Greinke and Brad Peacock should be considered, I’d rather go with the safe feeling I get from choosing DeGrom in my Cash game lineups.
Value
Gerrit Cole (FD-$8,700 / DK-$9,900)
While Cole doesn’t offer HUGE savings, he is only the fifth highest priced pitcher on DraftKings and sixth highest on FanDuel. He gets a good matchup as a decent sized road favorite against the Giants in San Francisco. While the Giants don’t strike out a ton (19.6%) they also don’t hit much with a league-worst wRC+ (79) and wOBA (.291) versus right-handed pitching this season. Meanwhile, Cole has allowed two runs or less in six of his last seven starts with a 3.05 ERA and 23.5% strikeout rate during that stretch. Cole should be able to put together a solid outing while not hurting you. He is a viable Cash game option if you don’t want to pay up for DeGrom or if you want to pair with DeGrom on two-pitcher sites.
Darkhorse
James Paxton (FD-$9,200 / DK-$10,500)
I expect Paxton to be the lowest owned of the ace pitching options on the slate since he is facing the Red Sox. Paxton has tossed five straight quality starts while recording at least seven strikeouts in five of his last six outings. He has also had success against Red Sox hitters so far in his career allowing just a .196 wOBA including just two extra-base hits in 39 plate appearances with a 23.1% strikeout rate. Paxton has also pitched well at home in his career with a 2.93 ERA (2.67 this year). While others chase a cheap pitching option for their GPP lineups, look to take a low-owned “ace” instead.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Rangers vs. Adam Conley
The Rangers have the highest Vegas implied run total on the slate, yet their hitters are reasonably priced which will likely make them a very chalky option. Conley returned from the DL to pitch six innings in his last start allowing two runs against the Phillies. He will pitch on the road in the heat of Texas on Monday and has allowed a 37.2% hard hit rate to right-handed batters this season.
Mike Napoli (FD-$3,000 / DK-$3,900) – Napoli has a .377 wOBA and .364 ISO versus lefties this season.
Adrian Beltre (FD-$3,600 / DK-$4,000) – Beltre is riding a five-game hitting streak and has a .359 wOBA versus southpaws this season.
Elvis Andrus (FD-$3,000 / DK-$4,500) – Andrus has six hits over his last three games including a pair of long balls.
Jonathan Lucroy (FD-$2,200 / DK-$2,500) – Lucroy has been bad this season but his salary reflects it and he holds a career .354 versus lefties.
Contrarian Stack
Mets vs. Clayton Richard
While the ballpark in San Diego isn’t a favorable one to stack hitters in, the Mets matchup against a struggling Clayton Richard certainly is. In his last three home starts, Richard has allowed 16 runs in 15 1/3 innings pitched. He has also been getting crushed by right-handed hitters allowing a .390 wOBA and 1.61 HR/9. Stack up some cheap Mets’ right-handed bats at cheap salaries.
Yoenis Cespedes (FD-$3,300 / DK-$3,600) – Cespedes has a .378 wOBA and .347 ISO versus lefties this season and has been even better on the road versus southpaws.
Wilmer Flores (FD-$2,600 / DK-$3,500) – Flores has a four-game hitting streak that has included a pair of home runs. He has a .341 wOBA and .217 ISO versus lefties this season.
Travis d’Arnaud (FD-$2,900 / DK-$3,400) – D’Arnaud has six hits over his last three starts including a pair of doubles and has crushed lefties this season with a .481 wOBA and .349 ISO.
Asdrubal Cabrera (FD-$3,000 / DK-$3,600) – Cabrera has been solid against left-handed pitchers this season with a .344 wOBA (.412 on the road).
Athletics vs. Francisco Liriano
Liriano hasn’t pitched past the second inning in either of his two starts since the All-Star break. He has a very high walk rate (12.0%) and has allowed a .388 wOBA with a 1.39 HR/9 to right-handed hitters this season. The A’s have a lot of righties that can take advantage of Liriano and the favorable park adjustment going from Oakland to Toronto. You can make this stack even cheaper if you remove Khris Davis and plug in any one of Josh Phegley, Matt Chapman, Jed Lowrie or Adam Rosales.
Ryon Healy (FD-$2,600 / DK-$2,900) – Healy has a .437 wOBA and .294 ISO versus left-handed pitchers this season.
Marcus Semien (FD-$2,500 / DK-$3,500) – Semien is heating up at the plate with a four-game hitting streak with a homer, three RBIs and five runs. He has a career .350 wOBA versus lefties.
Khris Davis (FD-$4,100 / DK-$4,600) – Davis is hitting .353 with three doubles and two homers off Liriano in 17 career at-bats.
Rajai Davis (FD-$2,900 / DK-$3,700) – Rajai has also hit Liriano well over his career with a .364 average including six extra-base hits in 33 at-bats.
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