It’s Trade Deadline day in the MLB which usually means we are let down by the lack of big name trades that have been rumored over the last couple of weeks. That said, there have been a few trades already that will shake up lineups for tonight or moving forward, so be sure to watch the starting lineups very carefully when they come out as there may be some opportunities for good cheap options to emerge.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Luis Severino (FD-$10,100 / DK-$11,900)
Severino appears to be the clear-cut ace option to use tonight. Sonny Gray may not start if he gets dealt and I don’t like using pitchers against the Marlins right now (Gio Gonzalez). The only other ace I will consider is Charlie Morton, especially if the Rays fill their lineup with lefties. Meanwhile, Severino has been very solid for the Yankees this season with a 3.03 ERA supported by a 3.09 xFIP. He has only allowed one earned run in his three starts since the All-Star break with striking out 21 hitters in 21 innings. He is pitching at home as the biggest favorite on the slate against a Tigers’ team that ranks in the middle of the pack in most offensive categories against righties this season. Severino is a fine option in both Cash and GPP lineups.
Value
Danny Duffy (FD-$8,300 / DK-$8,900)
I was struggling to find my favorite value pitcher of the night until I looked at Duffy’s history against Orioles’ hitters in his career. Duffy has allowed a minuscule .218 wOBA to Orioles’ hitters with an impressive 34.6% strikeout rate in 107 plate appearances. He has also only given up one home run and that was to Mark Trumbo who may not be in the lineup. I’m going to trust the PvB numbers here and go with Duffy pitching for a hot Royals’ team as my second pitcher on two-pitcher sites and as a GPP option on all sites.
Darkhorse
Marco Estrada (FD-$6,900 / DK-$6,500)
It is hard to recommend a pitcher that has only pitched more than five innings two times in his last 10 starts. The primary reason has been walks with four or more free passes in six of his last seven starts. However, he might be able to avoid the walks tonight in a matchup with the White Sox who rank 29th in walk rate (6.6%) against right-handed pitchers this season. Estrada also has some strikeout upside if he can pitch deeper into the game with a solid 24.2% strikeout rate while the White Sox have the eight highest strikeout rate (22.8%) against righties this season. I won’t touch him in Cash lineups but he is worth a flier as a cheap option with upside in GPPs.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Blue Jays vs. James Shields
Another reason I like Estrada is that the Jays should be able to put up some runs against James Shields. Shields has allowed six runs in three of his last six starts and holds an 8.58 ERA during that stretch. The Blue Jays have the highest Vegas implied run total on the slate and are reasonably priced.
Justin Smoak (FD-$3,900 / DK-$4,900) – Smoak has a six-game hitting streak including a pair of long balls. He has a .292 ISO versus righties this season.
Jose Bautista (FD-$3,300 / DK-$4,000) – Bautista has had success against Shields in his career going 10-for-34 with five homers.
Josh Donaldson (FD-$3,800 / DK-$4,200) – Donaldson hasn’t been himself this season but still has a solid .344 wOBA versus righties and three extra-base hits in his last six games.
Russell Martin (FD-$2,700 / DK-$3,600) – Martin is a reasonably priced catch that bats near the top of the lineup which is a hard combination to find. He has collected two hits in each of his last two starts.
Royals vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
The Royals are hot winning 10 of their last 11 games while scoring at least five runs in eight of those games. Jimenez has allowed at least four runs in four of his last five starts and has an 8.42 ERA at home this season. He has allowed a .412 wOBA and 2.98 HR/9 to lefties this season.
Mike Moustakas (FD-$3,600 / DK-$4,300) – Moustakas has hit 14 of his 30 homers on the road versus right-handed pitchers this season for a .358 ISO.
Eric Hosmer (FD-$3,700 / DK-$5,000) – Hosmer has a five-game hitting streak and has a .377 wOBA and .188 ISO versus righties this season and has nine hits over his last four games.
Lorenzo Cain (FD-$3,500 / DK-$4,500) – Cain is 9-for-20 with a home run against Jimenez in his career
Melky Cabrera (FD-$2,700 / DK-$4,000) – Going to give the newly acquired Cabrera a chance as part of the Royals’ stack. I’m curious where he will bat in the order but with the middle core as the rest of my stack, he can hit near the top or bottom and still be connected.
Contrarian Stack
Nationals vs. Jose Urena
The Nationals might get overlooked tonight. They only have the 10th highest Vegas implied run total on a slate with only eight games and their hitters carry hefty price tags. Urena has a 7.07 ERA through three post All-Star break starts while allowing a .374 wOBA.
Bryce Harper (FD-$4,900 / DK-$5,600) – Harper has a .473 wOBA and .402 ISO on the road versus right-handed pitchers this season.
Daniel Murphy (FD-$4,000 / DK-$5,000) – Murphy has his best wOBA and ISO on the road versus righties this season at .456 and .309 respectively.
Adam Lind (FD-$2,800 / DK-$3,600) – Lind offers a little bit of salary savings as a pivot from Ryan Zimmerman and has a .396 wOBA and .257 ISO versus righties this season.
Anthony Rendon (FD-$3,600 / DK-$4,900) – Rendon has been crushing the ball since the All-Star break with a .514 wOBA and 367 ISO.
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