We start out the week with a nine-game slate on Monday night. Pitching is kind of strange tonight. There looks like there are quite a few good pitchers on the mound but the more I dig into their numbers and recent performances the more I don’t really like very many of them. The hitting side is similar where I actually find myself recommending some stacks against pitchers that either have good overall numbers, solid reputations or have been pitching well lately. Feels like a night where I might either be way off or right on with lower owned options.
We will provide one piece of free content each weekday during the MLB season. This On the Hill article will be free on Mondays and Tuesdays but will be part of the premium content the rest of the week. Be sure to sign up for our Premium Content so you don’t miss out on any of the content we have here at DailyOverlay.
Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Stephen Strasburg (FD-$11,400 / DK-$12,700)
I wanted to find a reason to pay down for “ace” Jacob deGrom but with his recent struggles, facing the Cubs, and playing in a warm weather game with the wind blowing out there was not a reason other than the salary discount (maybe worth a GPP flier). So, I’m going with Strasburg pitching at home as a huge favorite over the Braves. Strasburg has been dominating over his last four starts with a 1.63 ERA and 38% strikeout rate. One of those games also came against the Braves when he pitched 7+ innings with 11 strikeouts. Lock Strasburg into your Cash game lineups and don’t get cute.
Value
Masahiro Tanaka (FD-$7,900 / DK-$7,800)
Tanaka is far from “safe” as he has allowed five or more runs in four of his last five starts. His one good outing during that stretch was very good with 13 strikeouts while allowing just one run over 7+ innings against the A’s. The reasons for recommending Tanaka is he will get a favorable park adjustment pitching in Angel Stadium in Anaheim against a lineup that is without Mike Trout. Also, his team is knocking the cover off the ball with 30 runs in the last two games so Tanaka should get some run support to give him a shot at a win. He has also had success against Angels’ hitters with a .187 wOBA allowed and 25.5% strikeout rate in 55 plate appearances over the last two seasons. I might even roll the dice with Tanaka as my #2 option on two-pitcher sites in Cash games and he is worth consideration in GPP lineups as well.
Darkhorse
Jameson Taillon (FD-$8,300 / DK-$6,800)
Taillon will return to the mound for his first start since May 3 after being diagnosed with testicular cancer. He pitched very well at the beginning of the season with a 3.31 ERA over his first six starts and also pitched well during his minor-league rehab stint with 21 strikeouts in 14 innings. He will be a home favorite against the Rockies who rank 26th in wRC+ (84) versus righties this season. Taillon might only go five or six innings but should be able to produce a solid outing at a low salary, especially on Draftkings. He is worth Cash game consideration on two-pitcher sites if you don’t trust Tanaka and as a GPP option.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Nationals vs. Mike Foltynewicz
Foltynewicz has pitched back-to-back gems with seven shutout innings in each start while racking up 14 strikeouts in 14 innings. However, those games were against the Reds and Phillies and he allowed five runs to the Giants in his start before that. So a matchup with the high-powered Nationals offense should bring Foltynewicz back down to earth. He has allowed a career .364 wOBA and 1.67 HR/9 to lefties.
Bryce Harper (FD-$4,600 / DK-$5,400) – Harper has a .484 wOBA and .390 ISO at home versus righties this season.
Daniel Murphy (FD-$3,800 / DK-$4,700) – Murphy has three multiple-hit games in his last four starts and hold a .390 wOBA versus righties this season.
Adam Lind (FD-$2,900 / DK-$3,700) – I’m hoping Ryan Zimmerman gets another day off with his back injury on Monday so lefty Adam Lind can get the start. Lind has a .421 wOBA and .296 ISO versus right-handers this season.
Matt Wieters (FD-$2,500 / DK-$3,300) – Wieters is a cheap catching option that is 2-for-5 with two doubles and a walk against Foltynewicz in his career.
White Sox vs. Wade Miley
Miley has put together a 3.27 ERA through 12 starts this season but has a 4.11 xFIP and has allowed a 34.8% hard hit rate so expect some regression to continue after allowing four runs in 2 2/3 innings in his last start against the lowly Pirates. Meanwhile, the White Sox have crushed lefties this season with a league-best wOBA (.353) and wRC+ (121).
Jose Abreu (FD-$3,300 / DK-$4,100) – Abreu has made hard contact 55% of the time over his last six games and has a .478 wOBA versus lefties this season.
Todd Frazier (FD-$3,300 / DK-$4,400) – Over his last eight games, Frazier is batting .448 with three doubles and three homers.
Avisail Garcia (FD-$3,100 / DK-$4,500) – Garcia has hits in seven of his last eight games with a pair of long balls and has a .483 wOBA against lefties this season.
Melky Cabrera (FD-$3,400 / DK-$3,500) – Cabrera is 6-for-13 with two doubles and a homer over Wade Miley in his career.
Contrarian Stack
Astros vs. Yu Darvish
The Astros have cooled off a little bit since their 11-game winning streak but they are still capable of putting up a crooked number. They will face Darvish who they scored three runs off in five innings just 10 days ago in Texas. The Astros made hard contact 50% of the time in that outing so look for better production this time around. They will also get to face the Rangers bullpen who has allowed 1.40 HR/9 this season.
Jose Altuve (FD-$3,400 / DK-$4,700) – Altuve has a .387 wOBA against righties this season and his price has been reduced, especially on FanDuel.
Carlos Correa (FD-$3,600 / DK-$4,700) – Correa has a .421 wOBA and .286 ISO at home versus right-handed pitchers this season.
George Springer (FD-$3,500 / DK-$4,900) – Springer homered on Sunday and is 6-for-15 with a pair of homers off Darvish in his career.
Josh Reddick (FD-$3,000 / DK-$4,000) – Reddick is riding a seven-game hitting streak and has a .431 wOBA and .262 ISO at home versus righties this season.
Follow me on Twitter @Rotopilot
