Tuesday is Clayton Kershaw Day but I’m going to pivot off of him tonight. Kershaw has a few things going against him tonight. He is on the road. He is pitching in an American League park (DH). He is facing a good team (Indians) who do not strike out too often versus lefties (17.7%). And finally, he is expensive, as usual. There are also a few other solid mid-priced options that interest me even in Cash games. I’m sure I’ll have one GPP lineup with Kershaw but in general, I plan to fade him tonight.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
David Price (FD-$9,300 / DK-$10,100)
Price is my top choice to pivot to if you go away from Kershaw. He has pitched so-so through his first three starts this season with a 5.29 ERA and modest 20.8% strikeout rate. However, those three games were against strong hitting teams versus lefties (White Sox, Orioles, Yankees) and they were all on the road. Price returns home on Tuesday for a much easier matchup with the Phillies. Price comes in as a huge favorite against a Phillies team that is only middle of the pack in strikeout rate to lefties (20.0%) but is in the bottom eight in wRC+ (85) this season. Look for Price to have his first “ace-like” performance of the season making him a good Cash and GPP option.
Value
Jason Vargas (FD-$8,500 / DK-$8,300)
Vargas’ upside may be limited since he doesn’t strikeout a lot of hitters (19.9%) and is facing a Giants’ team that doesn’t strikeout too often versus lefties (20.3%). However, Vargas should be able to shut down the Giants’ offense which ranks 29th in wOBA (.284) and 27th in wRC+ (77). Vargas is a very solid Cash game option on two-pitcher sites.
Darkhorse
Gerrit Cole (FD-$8,000 / DK-$6,800)
What is wrong with Gerrit Cole is all that I read about when researching him for tonight. With a 10.71 ERA over his last four starts that is a legitimate question. My answer is he has just pitched four games in tough situations for Cole. He faces the Braves in hitter-friendly Atlanta, two matchups with the left-handed heavy Mets and a matchup with the Marlins’ who he always has trouble with for some reason. I expect him to get back on track in tonight’s start at home against the Rockies. The Rockies have a 22.3% strikeout rate versus righties this season and rank 28th in wRC+ (83). Cole pitches a little bit better at home over the last season-plus and of course, the Rockies outside of Coors Field aren’t as scary. Give Cole a shot in GPP lineups tonight, I will be.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Nationals vs. R.A. Dickey
The Nationals’ stack performed well yesterday, so I am going to go back to the well again tonight in another favorable matchup at home against Dickey. Dickey has allowed seven runs over 12+ innings in two starts against the Nationals this season (both in Atlanta). By now the Nationals’ hitters should be getting their timing down against Dickey’s knuckleball and could explode.
Bryce Harper (FD-$4,500 / DK-$5,300) – Harper has hits in five straight games and homered last night. He has a .494 wOBA and .413 ISO at home versus righties.
Trea Turner (FD-$4,400 / DK-$5,400) – Turner has been racking up the fantasy points recently whether it be with the home run like last night or the stolen base with 10 steals over his last 12 games.
Daniel Murphy (FD-$3,600 / DK-$4,300) – Murphy’s price is very reasonable for a hitter in the middle of a high-powered offense with a .391 wOBA versus righties this season.
Adam Lind (FD-$2,900 / DK-$3,700) or Ryan Zimmerman (FD-$4,000 / DK-$5,000) – Give me whichever 1B is in the lineup for the Nationals on Tuesday. Zimmerman has missed the last few games with a back injury but has had success against Dickey in his career (12-for-36 with 2 HRs). Lind hits righties well with a .431 wOBA this season.
Mariners vs. Kyle Gibson
The Mariners put up 14 runs against the Twins last night and could continue the onslaught against Gibson who has a 7.25 ERA and has allowed a .433 wOBA at home this season. He has allowed matching .390 wOBAs to righties and lefties so stack up any Mariners you can get. Oh, and the Twins bullpen is bad also.
Nelson Cruz (FD-$4,400 / DK-$4,800) – Cruz has back-to-back two-hit games with a double in each contest. Those doubles could turn into homers with his .355 ISO on the road versus righties this season.
Robinson Cano (FD-$3,100 / DK-$4,400) – Cano has a five-game hitting streak and has a .382 wOBA and .259 ISO on the road versus righties this season.
Kyle Seager (FD-$3,300 / DK-$4,100) – Seager has multiple hits in four of his last seven games and maintains a career .352 wOBA versus righties.
Ben Gamel (FD-$2,900 / DK-$3,500) – Gamel is on fire with eight hits over his last four games. He will likely bat leadoff again and should get plenty of opportunities to produce hits and runs.
Contrarian Stack
Rays vs. Marco Estrada
I was close to recommending Estrada as my Value pitching option tonight but did a complete 180 when was researching my hitting stacks when I saw how high the Rays’ hitters ranked in my model. The Rays are an all-or-nothing offense so I expect this stack to either do really well or Estrada to be one of the top five pitchers on the slate. My suggestion is to get exposure to both #hedgelife.
Corey Dickerson (FD-$3,900 / DK-$4,500) – Dickerson has cooled off a little bit so far this month but with a positive park adjustment against a fly ball pitcher he should be able to take advantage of his .439 wOBA and .307 ISO on the road versus righties this season.
Logan Morrison (FD-$3,200 / DK-$4,300) – Morrison is crushing righties this season with a .380 wOBA and .327 ISO.
Steven Souza (FD-$3,200 / DK-$4,200) – Souza has hit all 11 of his homers this season off righties and has a .393 wOBA and .275 ISO versus “northpaws”.
Mallex Smith (FD-$2,200 / DK-$3,500) – Smith has been on fire since getting recalled from the minors going 8-for-14 with a home run, six runs and four steals in three games. Still underpriced on both sites.
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