A nice big 11-game slate on Monday to begin another week of the MLB grind. Pitching will be hard to come by unless you are willing to pay up for it on Monday. There are three very strong Ace pitching options including Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber and Jon Lester. So strong that I am going to recommend two of them with my official picks but fully expect to have some exposure to all three of them. I’m not a big fan of the middle and lower priced pitching options but will go with one that I think has the most upside as my Darkhorse pick.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Clayton Kershaw (FD-$12,500 / DK-$13,500)
Kershaw is a massive home favorite with a very low implied run total against the Mets on Monday. While Kershaw hasn’t been quite as dominating as previous years he is still a lock for a very high floor every time he takes the mound. He has been better at home over his career (2.01 ERA) and will face a Mets’ offense that ranks 26th in wOBA (.296) and 24th in wRC+ (83) against lefties this season. Try to get Kershaw into your Cash and GPP lineups but there are other options if you can’t find enough value bats.
Value
John Lester (FD-$9,900 / DK-$10,500)
I will likely start my lineup building tonight with Lester as my #1 Cash game pitching option. He offers significant savings from Kershaw on both sites and has the potential to put up a similar line and score. Lester is also a big home favorite who pitches better at home (2.65 ERA this season, 1.74 last season). He will face a Padres’ team that has the 6th highest strikeout rate (24.5%) against lefties while also ranking dead last in wOBA and wRC+. Lester will likely be my Cash game pitcher on FanDuel and I will try everything I can to lock down both Lester and Kershaw on DraftKings in Cash games. Note that I think Kluber will be under-owned in GPPs so he is a good pivot off Kershaw/Lester in tournaments.
Darkhorse
Marco Estrada (FD-$8,100 / DK-$7,900)
As I said in the into I had a hard time finding a middle or low salary pitcher that I like tonight. Estrada is the one guy that I had a good feeling about while doing my research. He has struggled in recent starts (12.08 ERA in this last three) but he has had some success against the Rangers’ hitters allowing just a .278 wOBA while producing a 23.3% strikeout rate over 73 plate appearances. For the season the Rangers also have the 6th highest strikeout rate (23.5%) against righties. The wind is blowing in a little bit in Texas tonight which could also help the fly ball pitcher keep the ball in the park. Estrada has the strikeout upside that is worth a flier in GPP lineups.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Blue Jays vs. Austin Bibens-Dirkx
Bibens-Dirks allows a lot of contact with just a 13.1% strikeout rate this season. He has also allowed a lot of hard contact (37.2%). Warm weather in Texas against a pitcher that allows a lot of hard contact seems like a good recipe for success.
Justin Smoak (FD-$3,700 / DK-$4,800) – Smoak is well on his way to a career year while posting a solid .371 wOBA and .305 ISO versus right-handed pitching this season.
Josh Donaldson (FD-$3,900 / DK-$4,600) – Donaldson has performed better on the road than at home this season with a .506 wOBA and .341 ISO.
Jose Bautista (FD-$3,700 / DK-$3,800) – Bautista has also hit better on the road this season with a .356 wOBA and .188 ISO.
Troy Tulowitzki (FD-$2,700 / DK-$3,200) – Tulowitzki offers some salary savings to try to get the high-priced pitchers in tonight and does have four hits over his last three games.
Indians vs. Dylan Bundy
Bundy’s underlying numbers show a different pitcher than his 3.29 ERA demonstrate. He has a 5.13 xFIP and .261 BABIP allowed this season while allowing a 46.7% flyball rate and 33.3% hard contact rate.
Jose Ramirez (FD-$4,000 / DK-$4,800) – Ramirez is red-hot at the plate with six straight multi-hit games with a least one extra-base hit in each contest. Ride the hot streak.
Lonnie Chisenhall (FD-$2,700 / DK-$4,300) – Chisenall has two hits in three of his last five games including three homers during that stretch.
Edwin Encarnacion (FD-$3,700 / DK-$4,900) – Encarnacion has four homers over his last five games and has a .398 wOBA and .321 ISO on the road versus righties this season.
Michael Brantley (FD-$3,600 / DK-$4,400) – Brantley has a .366 wOBA and .172 ISO versus righties this season.
Contrarian Stack
Rays vs. Scott Feldman
Feldman has a 5.58 ERA on the road this season and will travel to an American League park to face a potent Rays’ lineup. Lefties have done the most damage versus Feldman this season with a .355 wOBA allowed and 1.80 HR/9.
Logan Morrison (FD-$3,600 / DK-$4,700) – Morrison blasted a pair of homers on Sunday and has crushed righties this season with a .403 wOBA and .365 ISO.
Corey Dickerson (FD-$3,800 / DK-$4,800) – Dickerson has performed very well versus righties this season with a .402 wOBA and .283 ISO.
Mallex Smith (FD-$2,600 / DK-$3,600) – Smith has hits in 10 straight games since taking over a full-time role with a .410 average and five steals. Still underpriced.
Derek Norris (FD-$2,400 / DK-$2,500) – Sneaking in a punt catcher option to be part of a wraparound stack. Norris has had success against Feldman going 6-for-14 with a homer in his career.
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