Well, maybe birthday mojo is a thing, as I had a good night on Friday. No life changing score but a very solid DFS night by more than doubling my investment for the day. Let’s see if some of the birthday mojo can carry over to Monday’s small six-game evening slate. I’m not in love with any of the pitchers on the slate even though there are some high-end options. However, on the hitting side, there are four teams where I want to get most my exposure from (consider the White Sox as option #4 to my three stacks below).
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Chris Sale (FD-$11,700 / DK-$12,900)
Sale has been very consistent and productive in every start this season. He offers a high floor with the potential for a high ceiling on any given night. However, looking at his game logs, I see a trend with his “worst” starts. They are against teams in the AL Central who are the most familiar with him. He has a 4.59 ERA in five starts versus the AL Central compared to a 2.07 ERA in 10 starts versus everyone else. I still consider him the top ace pitching option on the slate and would use him in Cash games on two-pitcher sites but might pivot to my Value option in Cash on one pitcher sites.
Value
Jeff Samardzija (FD-$8,300 / DK-$8,400)
Samardzija is probably my favorite pitcher on the slate given his salary and potential to succeed. He has been better than his 4.74 ERA suggests with a 3.01 xFIP and .327 BABIP. He has pitched better at home over the last season-plus and has a career-best 27.7% strikeout rate this season. Samardzija will face the Rockies who rank 29th in wRC+ (80) versus right-handed pitching and will get a huge negative park adjustment going from Coors Field to AT&T Park. I will have a lot of exposure to Samardzija in both Cash and GPP lineups.
Darkhorse
Cole Hamels (FD-$9,400 / DK-$8,100)
I am not a big fan of using pitchers in their first game back from injury with concern about how deep they will pitch into the game and with a chance of re-aggravating their injury. I am less concern when the pitcher is a veteran like Hamels has had a lot of success over his career and know how to pitch and come back from some time off. Hamels will face an Indians’ team that is suddenly ice cold, scoring just two runs over the three-game weekend series with the Twins. They also don’t hit lefties as well as righties. Hamels is worth a GPP flier.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Dodgers vs. Ricky Nolasco
My model absolutely loves the Dodgers’ hitters tonight. Nolasco has allowed at least five runs in four of his last six starts including 10 home runs during that stretch. He has given up a hit wOBA and HR/9 to both righties and lefties this season but righties have especially taken advantage with a .391 wOBA and 2.98 HR/9. I’m stacking up primarily the Dodgers right-handed bats but don’t be afraid to use the lefties Pederson and Grandal either.
Justin Turner (FD-$3,800 / DK-$4,600) – Turner has multiple hits in five of his last eight games and continues to hit right-handed pitching well with a .430 wOBA this season.
Chris Taylor (FD-$2,900 / DK-$4,200) – Taylor has held his own against righties this season with a .357 wOBA and .204 ISO.
Yasiel Puig (FD-$2,600 / DK-$3,700) – Puig is my favorite cheap OF option to hit a home run on the slate with a .356 wOBA and .253 ISO versus right-handed pitchers this season.
Cody Bellinger (FD-$3,800 / DK-$5,500) – I had to break up the righty hitter train to include the red-hot Bellinger who has slugged 12 homers over his last 15 games and has a massive .405 ISO versus right-handed pitchers this season.
Nationals vs. Eddie Butler
Butler has faced some weak hitting teams to compile his 4.19 ERA. He is due for some regression with a .265 BABIP and 5.43 xFIP which could come against a good offense in Washington. Butler has a 5.63 ERA in three road starts this season and has given up a .417 wOBA to lefties in his career.
Bryce Harper (FD-$4,500 / DK-$5,400) – Harper has at least one hit in 16 of his last 17 games and has a .476 wOBA at home versus right-handed pitchers this season (.404 in his career).
Trea Turner (FD-$4,300 / DK-$5,300) – Turner has been a terror on the basepaths this month with 15 steals and 19 runs scored.
Daniel Murphy (FD-$4,000 / DK-$5,200) – Murphy is riding a nine-game hitting streak and has a .398 wOBA versus righties this season.
Brian Goodwin (FD-$2,600 / DK-$3,800) – Goodwin has been hot at the plate over the last three games with six hits including a double, two homers, five runs and three RBIs while batting second.
Contrarian Stack
Cubs vs. Gio Gonzalez
The only reason I went with the Cubs over the White Sox is that I think the Cubs will be lower owned since they are on the road and I suspect DFS players will fear facing Gio Gonzalez more than Jordan Montgomery. Gonzalez has been really tough on lefties this season (.218 wOBA, zero HR) but has given up some damage to righties with a .328 wOBA and 1.56 HR/9.
Kris Bryant (FD-$3,800 / DK-$4,700) – Bryant has a .461 wOBA against lefties this season and has one home run in seven career at-bats versus Gonzalez.
Javier Baez (FD-$2,700 / DK-$3,600) – Baez has a seven-game hitting streak with four doubles and just three strikeouts. He has a .346 wOBA and .283 ISO versus lefties this season.
Willson Contreras (FD-$2,700 / DK-$3,600) – Contreras has a cheap salary for a catcher hitting in the middle of the lineup with a .343 wOBA against lefties this season.
Albert Almora (FD-$2,100 / DK-$3,000) – If Addison Russell plays then consider him for this spot, otherwise look to Almora who has torched lefties for a .430 wOBA this season.
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