Well, that sure felt like a short weekend. I guess that’s what happens the weekend after a long Memorial Day weekend and when you travel out of town to a water park for the weekend with the kids. It’s good to get back into the groove of a new week and the MLB breaks us in with a manageable seven-game slate. The slate could be an interesting one with a lot of spread out ownership despite there being only one high priced “ace” on the hill. I am going in a different direction and I suspect many other analysts will as well. I guess time will tell.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Jeff Samardzija (FD-$8,900 / DK-$8,900)
Carlos Martinez is just priced way too high for me to consider him over the value options on tonight’s slate. Martinez is a good pitcher but on the road with a negative park adjustment pitching in Cincinnati, I just can’t pay his huge price tag. Samardzija also has a negative park adjustment pitching in Milwaukee but get the benefit of facing a team that strikes out at the third-highest rate (24.9%) against righties. Meanwhile, Samardzija has seen a big spike in his strikeout rate this year at 28.3% over 8% higher than last season. The Brewers might hit a long ball or two but the strikeout total should help cover it. He is worth consideration in Cash games and is a very good GPP option.
Value
Sean Manaea (FD-$7,700 / DK-$7,800)
Manaea may actually be my pitcher of choice for Cash games tonight. He has pitched very well over his last two starts with a pair of wins against the Indians and Yankees on the road allowing just one run with 17 strikeouts over 14 innings. He will return home on Monday to pitcher-friendly Oakland where he has a career ERA almost two runs lower (3.08) than on the road (4.83). He will face an improved Blue Jays lineup with Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki back in the mix but still only scored 12 runs in a four-game series with the Yankees over the weekend. The Blue Jays have a 22.5% strikeout rate versus lefties this season. Manaea is worth consideration for both Cash and GPP lineups.
Darkhorse
J.A. Happ (FD-$8,400 / DK-$7,300)
I’m expecting a low-scoring game in Oakland tonight. Happ only threw four innings in his first start back from the DL but should be able to pitch deeper into the game on Monday. He will face an Athletics team that put up 10 runs in back-to-back games over the weekend but most of that damage came against right-handed pitching. Meanwhile, the A’s have the third-highest strikeout rate (25.9%) versus lefties this season and are in the bottom 10 in ISO, wOBA and wRC+. I would limit my exposure to GPPs for Happ just in case he remains on a pitch count and cannot pitch deep into the game.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Astros vs. Ian Kennedy
The Astros hitters cost a small fortune today but with value pitching and other value hitting stacks below you should be able to afford to splurge for the red-hot Astros bats. Kennedy has allowed at least four runs in each of his last four starts including a total of six homers during that stretch. Kennedy has allowed 2.11 HR/9 to righties this season. Once the Astros get to the Royals bullpen they should continue to feast on a pen that has allowed the seventh highest ERA (4.68) this season.
Carlos Correa (FD-$4,300 / DK-$5,500) – Correa is on fire with riding a 10-game hitting streak with a .455 batting average, five homers and 15 RBIs.
Jose Altuve (FD-$4,300 / DK-$5,800) – Altuve has four multi-hit games over his last six starts and has a .389 wOBA versus right-handers this season.
George Springer (FD-$4,300 / DK-$5,700) – Another Astro that is on fire with multiple hits in seven of his last eight games including seven home runs during that stretch.
Marwin Gonzalez (FD-$4,300 / DK-$4,800) – Gonzalez has multiple hits in five of his last seven games including four extra-base hits and has a .455 wOBA versus righties this season.
Cardinals vs. Asher Wojciechowski
The Cardinals hitters get a favorable park adjustment going to Cincinnati to face Reds’ righty Wojciechowski who has a career 6.66 ERA through his first 24.1 big league innings. He has allowed a lot of damage to both righties (.376 wOBA) and lefties (.409) while allowing more homers to righties so far in his brief career.
Jedd Gyorko (FD-$3,600 / DK-$3,900) – Gyorko is crushing righties this season with a .411 wOBA and .246 ISO which both rise on the road to .458 and .298 respectively.
Dexter Fowler (FD-$3,400 / DK-$4,400) – Fowler has reached base in five straight games including a pair of homers and a pair of steals.
Matt Carpenter (FD-$3,700 / DK-$3,700) – Carpenter has a 42.6% hard contact rate versus righties this season contributing to a .356 wOBA and .215 ISO.
Stephen Piscotty (FD-$3,400 / DK-$4,000) – Piscotty homered on Sunday and has hits in four of his last five games while batting third in the Cardinals lineup the last four games.
Contrarian Stack
Royals vs. Mike Fiers
Fiers pitched well in his last start when he was forced to remain in the rotation due to an injured starter. This doesn’t change the fact that Fiers was on his way out of the rotation and has given up 18 home runs in 10 starts this season. Fiers has been destroyed by righties this season allowing a .490 wOBA and massive 5.23 HR/9. With warm temps in KC, it could be a good time for a game stack.
Salvador Perez (FD-$3,500 / DK-$2,900) – Not sure why Perez is so cheap on DK. He has a .353 wOBA and .252 ISO versus righties this season.
Jorge Bonifacio (FD-$3,000 / DK-$3,600) – Bonifacio has multiple hits in three of his last five games and has a .394 wOBA and 36.9% hard hit rate versus right-handed pitchers.
Mike Moustakas (FD-$3,100 / DK-$4,100) – The only lefty in my KC stack batting second with a .363 wOBA and .267 ISO versus righties.
Lorenzo Cain (FD-$3,300 / DK-$3,700) – Cain is heating up batting .400 during his current five-game hitting streak with a pair of doubles and a homer. He also has a .445 wOBA at home versus righties this season.
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