We have a nice complement of ace pitching options for the Tuesday night 13-game slate. A nice change of pace from the options we had to struggle through last night, although a few of them didn’t pitch too poorly. Unfortunately, two of the best pitchers from last night threw against my top two stacks (Mets/Dodgers), at least my contrarian stack (Braves) came through.
Warm weather and the wind is the story on Tuesday night including warm temps and the winds blowing out at Wrigley. So be sure to keep an eye on the weather leading up to game time even though there is no rain expected on the docket.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Stephen Strasburg (FD-$10,400 / DK-$11,400)
Strasburg or Darvish? Darvish or Strasburg? They are definitely my two favorite ace option on the slate tonight. I still think that Darvish’s low BABIP (.240) hard hit rate (34.9%) will catch up to him, although it might not be tonight against the Phillies. So, I lean toward going with Strasburg pitching against the Pirates. The Pirates haven’t struck out too often (19.0%) against righties this season but they also haven’t hit them with a .289 wOBA (3rd worst) and 76 wRC+ (4th worst). Strasburg has also pitched better on the road over the last season-plus and is a solid road favorite. He is worth considering in both Cash and GPP lineups on all sites.
Value
Eduardo Rodriguez (FD-$7,800 / DK-$8,000)
Rodriguez isn’t without risk tonight pitching against a Cardinals’ team that has won eight of their last nine games. The game will also be played in St. Louis where the temps are in the low 80s and the wind is blowing out about 15 mph. Now that I have sold you on why not to start him let me tell you why you should start him. He has pitched very well this season with a 2.80 ERA and 29.6% strikeout rate. Rodriguez has also induced a lot of weak contact this season with just a 25.0% hard hit rate compared to a very good 21.4% soft contact rate. The Cardinals have also struggled against lefties this season with a 23.5% strikeout rate and wOBA and wRC+ in the bottom 10 of the league. He could be worth consideration as a second pitcher on two-pitcher sites and as a GPP option.
Darkhorse
Rich Hill (FD-$8,700 / DK-$8,700)
Hill is a huge risk/reward option making his first start off the DL. He gets a favorable matchup against the Giants who rank in the bottom four in wOBA and wRC+ against lefties this season and is a decent sized favorite pitching on the road in San Francisco. Hill reportedly needs to pitch well to keep a spot in the rotation and has big strikeout upside. He could leave in the second inning with an injury or strike out 10 hitters over six shutout innings. All of this makes him an intriguing GPP option who I think will pitch well.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Cubs vs. Bronson Arroyo
A pitcher allowing 2.23 HR/9 this season pitching against an elite offense in a game with warm temps and the wind blowing out to center. Sign me up! Even with the Cubs struggling at the plate recently this could be the breakout game they are looking for.
Kris Bryant (FD-$4,200 / DK-$5,000) – Bryant missed the last few games with an illness but is expected to return Tuesday at home where he has a career .411 wOBA and .269 ISO versus righties.
Anthony Rizzo (FD-$3,900 / DK-$4,600) – Rizzo hasn’t homered since April 29 but he won’t get any more favorable conditions than tonight to break out of his slump.
Kyle Schwarber (FD-$3,100 / DK-$4,100) – Schwarber has been at his best at home versus righties in his career with a .378 wOBA and .281 ISO.
Miguel Montero (FD-$2,500 / DK-$3,300) – Look for Montero to start at catcher with his 8-for-19 with three homers off Arroyo in his career.
Yankees vs. Jason Hammel
I’m not sure if the Yankees or my contrarian pick (Rangers) will be too off the radar tonight but they are both in good spots and I don’t love any of the deep contrarian options. Hammel has been bad this season with a 5.97 (5.20 xFIP) and has given up four homers over his last three starts. And, of course, the wind is blowing out to left 15-20 mph.
Aaron Judge (FD-$4,400 / DK-$5,000) – Judge has cooled off a little bit since his torrid pace at the end of April and start of May but he still has four hits over his last three games with a double and a homer. He should be able to lift a couple balls into the wind that could turn a fly out into a home run.
Brett Gardner (FD-$3,600 / DK-$4,500) – Gardner is swinging a hot bat this month batting .417 with five homers and his coming off back-to-back three-hit games.
Gary Sanchez (FD-$3,400 / DK-$4,500) – Sanchez has hits in six of his last seven games and has hit the ball hard 41.2% of the time during that stretch.
Starlin Castro (FD-$3,700 / DK-$4,200) – Castro is crushing right-handed pitching this season with a .400 wOBA and all seven of his home runs coming off righties.
Contrarian Stack
Rangers vs. Jerad Eickhoff
The only thing that might keep the Rangers’ ownership percentages down tonight is the wind blowing in. If the wind wasn’t blowing in I’d expect the Rangers’ stack to be popular but with other good wind-aided spots, they will likely be under owned. Eickhoff has struggled with lefties this season allowing a .361 wOBA and 1.93 HR/9.
Joey Gallo (FD-$3,300 / DK-$4,300) – A little wind shouldn’t prevent Gallo’s power from having a good opportunity to take Eickhoff deep with a career .348 ISO at home versus righties.
Nomar Mazara (FD-$3,400 / DK-$3,900) – Mazara has hits in five straight games including four doubles and has a career .340 wOBA versus righties.
Rougned Odor (FD-$2,800 / DK-$4,000) – Odor has been more patient at the plate recently with three walks in his last three games (only six the rest of the season). The additional patience could lead to seeing better pitches to hit.
Shin-Soo Choo (FD-$3,600 / DK-$4,000) – Choo has a .363 OBP versus righties this season which should lead to plenty of runs and stolen base opportunities.
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