Back to a full 15-game slate on a Tuesday night of MLB action. We have some stud pitchers on the bump tonight including Mr. Clayton Kershaw and a host of other solid options. Rostering the high-priced Kershaw for me always comes down to if I feel comfortable with the value hitting options on the slate and are there any good SP pivots that could come close to his production. I think we have some pitching contenders tonight, so it might not be a “Kershaw Day” if the value bats don’t bubble up.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Clayton Kershaw (FD-$12,600 / DK-$13,400)
Not much to write on Kershaw that hasn’t already been said. He’s good. He’s a huge home favorite. And he’s expensive. If you can find enough value hitters to make a lineup that you are comfortable with he is, of course, a good Cash game and GPP option. However, I might be pivoting to my value option in Cash if there aren’t enough value bats to make it work with Kershaw.
Value
Lance McCullers (FD-$9,400 / DK-$10,200)
You can’t always recommend a “value” pitcher that comes in over $9,000 on FanDuel and over $10,000 on DraftKings but when Kershaw is on the slate, McCullers is a huge value in comparison priced $3,200 cheaper on both sites. McCullers appears to have taken another step forward this season with a 2.65 ERA which is supported by a 2.69 xFIP. His strikeout rate is down a little bit from last season (27.2% from 30.1%) but his walk rate has been almost cut in half (6.8% from 12.8%). He has also been a better pitcher at home so far in his career with a 2.11 ERA and 29.8% strikeout rate. He is a big favorite at home versus the Tigers who have a 22.9% strikeout rate (6th highest) to righties this season. McCullers is a viable Cash option if you don’t want to pay up for Kershaw and also a good GPP option.
Darkhorse
Matt Harvey (FD-$8,000 / DK-$6,500)
The Dark Knight will be my Darkhorse pick tonight. Harvey continues to struggle but if there is ever a time for him to put together a good outing it is in tonight’s matchup with the Padres. The Padres have the second highest strikeout rate (24.6%) and rank in the bottom six in both wOBA (.297) and wRC+ (83) versus right-handed pitching this season. Harvey is at home and a favorite with a Vegas total of just eight runs. Too risky for Cash games but could offer excellent savings on DraftKings to pair with Kershaw in GPPs. I would shy away from him on FanDuel unless he just fits with the bats you want in a GPP.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Diamondbacks vs. Dylan Covey
Feels like I recommend the Diamondbacks every day. So, today will be no different with a great matchup against right-hander Covey in Arizona with the highest implied run total on the slate. Covey has allowed at least three runs in four straight starts, has a 7.64 ERA on the season and allows a lot of contact with just a 12.8% strikeout rate.
Paul Goldschmidt (FD-$4,700 / DK-$5,400) – Goldschmidt went deep last night and has a .528 wOBA and .370 ISO at home versus righties this season.
Jake Lamb (FD-$4,100 / DK-$5,500) – Lamb has a career .361 wOBA and .233 ISO at home versus righties.
David Peralta (FD-$3,300 / DK-$4,700) – Peralta went hitless last night but still has a .439 wOBA and .243 ISO at home versus righties this season.
Yasmany Tomas (FD-$3,600 / DK-$4,300) – Tomas has a .300 ISO versus righties this season while righty Dylan Covey has allowed a massive 4.32 HR/9 to righties this season.
Astros vs. Jordan Zimmermann
Zimmermann has a 6.25 ERA this season (5.64 xFIP) and has trouble missing bats with just a 14% strikeout rate while allowing a 42.3% hard contact rate. He has also allowed 11 home runs this season, 2.25 HR/9 to lefties and 2.19 HR/9 to righties, so the entire Astros lineup is in play.
Jose Altuve (FD-$4,100 / DK-$4,900) – Altuve is riding an eight-game hitting streak with seven extra-base hits during the streak. He has a .380 wOBA versus righties this season.
Carlos Correa (FD-$4,100 / DK-$4,700) – Correa has a .422 wOBA and .316 ISO at home versus right-handers this season.
Josh Reddick (FD-$3,300 / DK-$3,600) – Reddick is a solid value option hitting near the top of the Astros lineup with a .449 wOBA and .288 ISO at home versus righties this year.
Marwin Gonzalez (FD-$3,100 / DK-$3,700) – Gonzalez is hot again with four hits including two doubles and a homer over his last two games. He is a sneaky contrarian option to include with an Astros’ stack.
Contrarian Stack
White Sox vs. Patrick Corbin
The White Sox side of the game in Arizona could go under-owned with all the attention on the Diamondbacks’ hitters. Corbin has allowed four runs in each of his last two starts (both at home) including three homers. He has allowed a .360 wOBA and 1.64 HR/9 to righties and the White Sox have some strong right-handed power.
Jose Abreu (FD-$3,600 / DK-$4,800) – Abreu has hits in four straight games including two doubles and a home run. He has a .470 wOBA and .263 ISO versus southpaws this season.
Todd Frazier (FD-$3,400 / DK-$4,200) – Frazier has been in a season-long slump but has made hard contact 53.9% of the time over his last five games so he could be ready to breakout.
Avisail Garcia (FD-$3,600 / DK-$4,700) – Garcia has a .471 wOBA and .220 ISO versus lefties so far this season.
Tim Anderson (FD-$3,000 / DK-$4,400) – Anderson has been heating up at the plate recently with six multi-hit games over his last eight starts including three homers and a .530 wOBA.
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