Getting this article out a little later than usual with the early slate to contend with so going short on the intro today. Thursday’s On the Hill article will focus on the five-game night slate which features one high-priced ace pitcher and quite a few stacking options to sort out.
We will provide one piece of free content each weekday during the MLB season. This On the Hill article will be free on Mondays and Tuesdays but will be part of the premium content the rest of the week. Be sure to sign up for our Premium Content so you don’t miss out on any of the content we have here at DailyOverlay.
Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Jacob deGrom (FD-$11,000 / DK-$12,100)
DeGrom is in an optimal spot on Thursday pitching at home as a big favorite versus a Padres’ offense that has the second-highest strikeout rate (24.4%) versus right-handed pitching. While they rank in the bottom five in both wOBA (.296) and wRC+ (83). However, there are two concerns to monitor leading up to first pitch. First, is the weather that could bring rain to New York and either delay or postpone the game. Second, is that deGrom had a blister following his last start and could get removed early if it were to reoccur. If the weather is deemed okay to play without delays then I will probably still go with deGrom in Cash games, but don’t be afraid to fade him in GPPs just in case his night gets cut short.
Value
Kenta Maeda (FD-$9,000 / DK-$8,800)
I do not like to roster pitchers making their first start off the DL. However, on a night with only five games and Maeda’s injury was not arm related, he is still probably the safest mid-priced option. While he sports a 5.03 ERA, his xFIP is just 3.74 which falls in line with his rate last season. He has just been a little unlucky with home runs so far this season with an elevated 17% HR/FB rate. He will face the Cardinals who rank 22nd in HR/FB rate as a team, so Maeda should be able to control the homers and put together a solid outing worthy of consideration in Cash games on two-pitcher sites.
Darkhorse
Drew Pomeranz (FD-$7,500 / DK-$7,600)
Pomeranz hasn’t exceeded four innings in each of his last three starts due to high pitch counts and ineffectiveness. However, he has the most strikeout upside of the cheaper pitching options facing a Rangers’ offense that has struck out 24.3% of the time versus lefties. They also rank in the bottom seven in wOBA and wRC+ against southpaws. Weather conditions are also positive for pitchers tonight in Boston with temps in the 50s and the winds blowing in. Pomeranz has something to prove to his manager after a heated exchange following his last start, which should give him extra motivation to put together a strong outing. He is only viable for GPP lineups.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Diamondbacks vs. Zach Davies
Another day, another Diamondbacks stack. They will leave the friendly hitting confines of Chase Field for another hitter-friendly venue in Milwaukee. Davies has pitched poorly at home this season with a 6.93 ERA while allowing a .408 wOBA.
Paul Goldschmidt (FD-$4,800 / DK-$5,500) – Goldschmidt rakes in Miller Park with a .500 average, seven homers and 19 RBIs in just 16 games.
Jake Lamb (FD-$4,100 / DK-$5,300) – Lamb has homered in back-to-back games and has a .537 wOBA on the road versus righties this season.
David Peralta (FD-$3,400 / DK-$4,400) – Peralta has a .382 wOBA versus right-handed pitching this season.
Chris Herrmann (FD-$2,500 / DK-$3,700) – Herrmann has homered in three straight starts and could get the nod behind the plate or in the outfield versus the righty on Thursday.
Tigers vs. Mike Fiers
I just don’t understand the Vegas line for the Tigers/Astros game. Justin Verlander versus Mike Fiers and the Astros are favored (-128). Sure, it’s in Houston and the Astros are a good team but the Astros pitcher has been a dumpster “Fier” this season allowing 17 home runs in eight starts, including a .467 wOBA and 5.82 HR/9 to right-handed hitters which is where the Tigers excel. I don’t get it. Stack the Tigers and maybe the public won’t be on them because of the ridiculous Vegas line.
JD Martinez (FD-$3,700 / DK-$4,600) – Martinez has been on fire since returning from injury with a .364 average, six home runs and 12 RBIs in 11 games.
Justin Upton (FD-$2,800 / DK-$3,600) – Upton has struggled this season, especially the last few games going hitless but he has the power and low price you want in a GPP lineup.
Miguel Cabrera (FD-$3,900 / DK-$4,500) – Cabrera’s power numbers have been down this season but he is still making a lot of hard contact (50.6%) so the hits and power numbers should be coming.
Ian Kinsler (FD-$3,300 / DK-$3,500) – Kinsler posted a .348 wOBA and .189 ISO versus right-handed pitchers last season and he has been coming on lately with a .298 average over his last 13 games.
Contrarian Stack
Brewers vs. Robbie Ray
Ray could be a popular pitcher selection on the slate due to his strikeout potential against the strikeout-prone Brewers’ lineup. However, the Brewers’ lineup also has a lot of power and scoring potential, especially at home against a lefty like Ray who has given up a massive 46.2% hard hit rate this season.
Ryan Braun (FD-$3,900 / DK-$4,600) – Braun recently returned from the DL and his 0-for-8 over his first two games. So his ownership will likely be low, which is a perfect time to roster the Brewers’ slugger.
Eric Thames (FD-$3,700 / DK-$4,700) – Thames has cooled off but he is more than holding his own against lefties this season with a .519 wOBA and .486 ISO.
Jonathan Villar (FD-$3,400 / DK-$4,700) – Villar has hits in three straight games with four steals during that stretch hitting atop the Brewers’ lineup.
Keon Broxton (FD-$3,200 / DK-$3,800) – Broxton rounds out the Brewers’ stack due to his power/speed combination that can score you fantasy points in a variety of ways, and the fact that he is batting .347 in May.
Follow me on Twitter @Rotopilot
