Today’s On the Hill will focus on the nine-game afternoon slate of MLB action. Pitching on the slate features a lot of mid-priced options to choose from so my top two pitchers are both somewhat of a value in comparison to most slates. On the hitter’s side, there are a lot of stacks that interest me today. My top three are below but I am also interested in the Mets lefties and the top of the Astros lineup.
I hope everyone enjoys a safe Memorial Day and takes some time to remember those that gave their lives and service for our freedom.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Carlos Carrasco (FD-$10,300 / DK-$9,300)
Carrasco has been roughed up a little bit in each of his last two starts against the Rays and Reds. I’m assuming this is why the price is only $9,300 on DraftKings. He should be able to bounce back on Monday as a huge home favorite against the A’s. The A’s have struck out 23.5% (5th highest) against righties this season giving Carrasco the highest strikeout upside of any pitcher on the slate. On one pitcher sites, Carrasco is your man.
Value
Kyle Hendricks (FD-$9,400 / DK-$9,600)
I’m not going to mess around with the other mid-priced pitching options on the slate and pair up Hendricks with Carrasco on two-pitcher sites. Hendricks hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his last six starts for a 1.96 ERA during that stretch. He gets a favorable park adjustment pitching in San Diego against a Padres’ team that has a 25.2% (2nd highest) strikeout rate against right-handers this season. They also rank in the bottom four in both wOBA (.293) and wRC+ (81) versus righties this year. Hendricks is a good GPP pivot off of Carrasco on one pitcher sites.
Darkhorse
Brad Peacock (FD-$5,700 / DK-$5,500)
Peacock faces a Twins’ team that is coming off a 15-inning game yesterday that saw many of their regular starters play the full game. I expect a couple of them to get the day off on Monday, which should only help Peacock who will be making just his second start of the season. He pitched 4 1/3 innings in his first outing with eight strikeouts and no runs allowed. He should be able to increase his pitch count and get through five, maybe six, innings which could allow him to get another 7-10 strikeouts which are big for a pitcher at his salary. Peacock is worth a “flier” in GPP lineups on all sites.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Rockies vs. Sam Gaviglio
It doesn’t seem like I recommend the Rockies very often even when they are playing at Coors Field. However, tonight is a night to make sure you have some exposure to them. Gaviglio has pitched well through his first three big league games with a 1.38 ERA but he has allowed 32.6% hard contact versus just 14% soft contact and right-handed hitters have a .360 wOBA.
Charlie Blackmon (FD-$4,700 / DK-$5,700) – Blackmon has a .545 wOBA and .456 ISO at home versus righties this season.
Mary Reynolds (FD-$3,800 / DK-$4,900) – Reynolds has five hits in his last three games and has a .508 wOBA at home versus righties this year.
Trevor Story (FD-$3,700 / DK-$4,600) – Story has posted a career .388 wOBA and .287 ISO at home versus righties.
Ian Desmond (FD-$3,700 / DK-$4,600) – Desmond is riding a six-game hitting streak with a 40% hard hit rate during the streak.
Indians vs. Daniel Mengden
Mengden will make his first start of the season after starting 14 games in his rookie season last year posting a 6.50 ERA. His peripheral number were better than that ERA indicated but he still allowed a .356 wOBA to lefties and .354 wOBA to righties. With the Indians at home with the second highest implied run total on the slate, they are definitely in play.
Francisco Lindor (FD-$3,500 / DK-$4,500) – Lindor is in the middle of a 12-game hitting streak where he has a .406 wOBA and three home runs.
Michael Brantley (FD-$3,800 / DK-$4,400) – Brantley has a 12-game hitting streak of his own with a .389 wOBA and more walks than strikeouts.
Jose Ramirez (FD-$2,600 / DK-$3,700) – Ramirez has seen his salary drop but has been hitting lately with five hit in his last three games including a double and a homer.
Carlos Santana (FD-$3,400 / DK-$4,200) – Santana has pounded out three hits in two of his last four games and has a .343 wOBA and .202 ISO versus righties this season.
Contrarian Stack
White Sox vs. David Price
Look for the White Sox to be very low owned going against Price making his first start of the season. Yet, the White Sox have performed very well versus lefties this season and Price didn’t look too spectacular in his minor league rehab starts. Plus, all four of the White Sox hitters in my stack have gone deep off Price in their career.
Jose Abreu (FD-$4,000 / DK-$4,800) – Abreu is hot with a 10-game hitting streak that includes a .503 wOBA and .289 ISO.
Todd Frazier (FD-$3,500 / DK-$3,900) – Frazier went deep yesterday and has a .342 wOBA with a .205 ISO versus lefties this season.
Avisail Garcia (FD-$2,900 / DK-$4,600) – Garcia has crushed southpaws this season with a .486 wOBA.
Melky Cabrera (FD-$3,000 / DK-$3,800) – Cabrera has a .310 average (9-for-29) versus Price in his career with a homer and only three strikeouts.
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