Hopefully everyone had a fun, safe holiday weekend. Tuesday sees the MLB return to a usual schedule with the holiday behind us we have a 14-games of action on the night slate, minus the Indians and their goofy one hour early start time. The Tuesday slate has a lot of intrigue with Chris Sale returning to Chicago to face the White Sox. It is an interesting matchup of a marquee pitcher going against an offense that has hit lefties very well this season. Since this is a free article today, I will give it away… I will be using Sale today but it could be worth one contrarian White Sox stack as a hedge just in case they get to him.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Chris Sale (FD-$11,700 / DK-$13,400)
Look for Sale to have some extra juice going back to Chicago tonight. This could lead to a dominate performance or he could be too “geeked up” and struggle. I’m going to bet on the former and say he will dominate just as he has all season with a 2.34 ERA and 36.7% strikeout rate. Beware that the White Sox do lead the league in wOBA (.362) and wRC+ (129) versus left-handers which along with his big price tag could scare some people off. He is still the most elite arm on the slate and I’m guessing the White Sox didn’t face any Chris Sale-caliber pitchers when posting those numbers.
Value
Robbie Ray (FD-$9,400 / DK-$9,600)
If you decide to pivot away from Sale in Cash games then Ray is probably the next best choice. He has pitched very well in his last two starts allowing zero runs and just four hits over 14 2/3 innings. Both games were also on the road as will Tuesday’s matchup with the Pirates. Ray has a 0.81 ERA and 33.6% strikeout rate on the road over five starts this season. The Pirates are near the middle of the back in most offensive categories versus lefties and Ray is a slight favorite in a game that is tied for the lowest Vegas total on the slate.
Darkhorse
Jeff Samardzija (FD-$8,900 / DK-$8,600)
I’m almost as surprised as you probably are to see Samardzija on my list of recommended pitchers tonight. He faces the Nationals which are one of the best hitting teams in the league but Samardzija has had success against Nationals hitters in his career with a .282 wOBA allowed. Samardzija has recorded at least eight strikeouts in five straight starts and his 2.90 xFIP shows that he could have some positive regression from his 4.50 ERA this season. He also gets to face them in pitcher-friendly San Francisco and potentially without Bryce Harper depending on when his suspension is handed down. All of this make Samardzija an interesting GPP option.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Rockies vs. Ariel Miranda
Going back to Coors Field again with a Rockies stack. Miranda has pitched well recently but continues to struggle with the long ball to right-handed hitters with a 1.90 HR/9. He has also struggled on the road with a 6.08 ERA this season. A trip to Coors Field likely will not help that number.
Nolan Arenado (FD-$4,400 / DK-$5,400) – Arenado has destroyed lefties this season with a .586 wOBA and .529 ISO.
Ian Desmond (FD-$3,700 / DK-$4,600) – Desmond is riding a six-game hitting streak and has a .339 wOBA and .171 ISO versus southpaws in his career.
DJ LeMahieu (FD-$3,200 / DK-$4,400) – LeMahieu has a .454 wOBA at home versus lefties this season after posting a .437 mark last year.
Trevor Story (FD-$3,500 / DK-$4,500) – Story went deep yesterday and has a .419 wOBA and .457 ISO versus lefties this season.
Rays vs. Nick Martinez
Facing Martinez and the Rangers’ bullpen with a favorable park adjustment is the perfect storm for the Rays’ hitters tonight. Martinez has allowed equal production to lefties and righties during his career with a .347 and .354 wOBA allowed respectively. However, I’m going to stick with the Rays’ left-handed bats due to Martinez allowing more hard contact to lefties.
Corey Dickerson (FD-$4,100 / DK-$4,800) – Dickerson has seven hits in 12 at-bats over the last two games and has a .455 wOBA on the road against righties this season.
Logan Morrison (FD-$3,600 / DK-$4,500) – Morrison has already matched his home run total from last season (14) with 11 of those homers coming off righties.
Colby Rasmus (FD-$2,900 / DK-$3,800) – Rasmus has a six-game hitting streak with two homers during that stretch.
Kevin Kiermaier (FD-$3,000 / DK-$4,000) – Kiermaier has a career .343 wOBA and .202 ISO on the road versus righties.
Contrarian Stack
Tigers vs. Eric Skoglund
The Tigers put up 10 runs against the Royals last night and will face a rookie making his first big league start on Tuesday. Skoglund is a 24-year-old left-hander who has a 4.53 ERA in eight minor league starts this season at Triple-A with a moderate 8.24 K/9. Look to stack up the Tigers’ righties.
JD Martinez (FD-$3,500 / DK-$5,200) – Martinez continues to rake with his eighth homer last night in just 17 games this season. He has a career .370 wOBA versus lefties.
Miguel Cabrera (FD-$3,800 / DK-$4,800) – Cabrera is starting to heat up batting .342 with a .422 wOBA over his last 11 games.
Nick Castellanos (FD-$2,500 / DK-$3,800) – Castellanos continues to struggle this season but does have a .216 ISO versus lefties.
Justin Upton (FD-$2,900 / DK-$4,100) – Upton has hits in five of his last six games and has a .359 wOBA against lefties this season.
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