Good night for my pitcher recommendations last night with Jake Arrieta, Jose Quintana and Jeff Samardjiza all coming through with 27+ DraftKings points each. Nick Tropeano started out well but fell victim to the long ball by a couple of the only potent bats in the Brewers lineup. Oh well, can’t win them all I guess. On to tonight where my pitcher recommendations for Wednesday are for tonight’s seven-game slate.
Ace
Jose Fernandez (FD-$10,800 / DK-$11,200)
Fernandez tops my list tonight with a matchup at home against the Diamondbacks. While the Diamondbacks have fared well against righties this season the park adjustment for Diamondback hitters going from hitter-friendly Arizona to pitcher-friendly Miami makes a significant difference. Meanwhile, Fernandez has a sensational K-rate of 33.6% so far this season and his 2.29 FIP and 2.80 xFIP suggest he has been a bit unlucky so far. Fernandez should anchor your pitching tonight on DraftKings but you could go a different way on FanDuel due to his high price tag compared to my next recommendation.
Value
Drew Smyly (FD-$8,700 / DK-$10,900)
Smyly is underpriced on FanDuel tonight and makes for a great “ace” option that you can get at a “value” price. Smyly has been phenomenal for the Rays so far this season with a 2.60 ERA and 10.6 K/9 including a 1.61 ERA over his last four starts. Smyly is facing good Dodgers offense who exploded for 10 runs last night off Rays’ lefty starter Matt Moore. But as a sizeable favorite in Vegas tonight with a low run total, I expect Smyly to pitch well and pick up the victory. I prefer Fernandez on DraftKings at a similar price, but on FanDuel Smyly is your top option at over $2,000 less.
Aaron Sanchez (FD-$7,100 / DK-$6,400)
Sanchez made my list in his last start and didn’t disappoint, so I am going back to him again tonight. He has pitched very well this season with a 2.59 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 8.3 K/9. Tonight he faces a Rangers team that has been held in check the last two nights by Blue Jay’s right-handers for a total of three runs. Sanchez is another sizeable favorite in a good position to get a win. Sanchez is a viable GPP option or as a cheap #2 pitcher on two-pitcher sites.
Darkhorse
Mike Fiers (FD-$7,900 / DK-$8,300)
I like Fiers as an off the radar selection tonight due to his strikeout upside against a Twins team that has struck out 23.3% of the time against righties (8th worst) this season. While Fiers strikeout rate has been down so far this season, he holds a very good career strikeout rate of 23.8%. On a night where I expect Fernandez and Smyly to be very highly owned, there are some question marks even for them in tougher matchups, so pivoting to a pitcher like Fiers could be a good contrarian option in GPPs.
On the Hill – Results
Tuesday
| Date | Type | Pitcher | DK $ | DK Pts | Grade |
| 3-May | Ace | Jake Arrieta | 12100 | 27.35 | |
| 3-May | Value | Jose Quintana | 8100 | 27.60 | |
| 3-May | Value | Jeff Samardzija | 8200 | 35.00 | |
| 3-May | Dark | Nick Tropeano | 5600 | 7.25 |
- Not graded yet
Season
| Type | A+ | A | B | C | D | F | Tot | DK Cost | DK Pts | DO Score |
| Ace | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | $11,371 | 20.89 | 3.94 |
| Value | 5 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 11 | 36 | $8,345 | 15.59 | 2.83 |
| Dark | 6 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 18 | $6,637 | 16.69 | 4.61 |
- DK Cost is the average DraftKings cost per pitcher selected
- DK Pts is the average DraftKings points scored per pitcher selected
- DO Score is the Daily Overlay score for each type
Come back to DailyOverlay later today for the MLB Consensus list and some sample MLB lineups.
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