I’m back from vacation and ready to fire up another season of my MLB On the Hill column. And that is no April Fool’s Day joke. Since this is the first MLB slate I have analyzed this season, it may take me a few days to get back into my researching groove. So, with that, I will have my first three articles this week be FREE for your viewing pleasure.
Monday’s article will focus in on the nine-game evening slate that is void of any true Ace pitchers, so instead, you’ll get my top pair of value arms to use along with a Darkhorse option. Then I’ll supply my top two stacks of the night along with a more contrarian stack that should be lower owned. Enjoy the article as I have my Opening Day of DFS action!
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Value
Steven Matz (FD-$8,200 / DK-$8,300)
Matz posted solid numbers last season with a 4.13 xFIP and 23.2% strikeout rate while tallying 30 starts for the Mets. He should be able to start out the 2019 campaign strong with a favorable matchup against the Marlins in Miami. While the Marlins don’t strikeout a ton (21.9%), they also don’t hit much with the league’s worst wOBA (.282) and ISO (.115) against southpaws over the last season-plus. Matz should have a good chance for a win as a road favorite while offering a high floor in this matchup. On one pitcher sites, Matz is likely my choice.
Julio Urias (FD-$7,200 / DK-$8,700)
Urias will get a crack at the starting rotation early in the season with a couple of pitchers currently on the shelf. The young lefty has been a top prospect in the organization and had a strong spring with a 1.72 ERA, 0.51 WHIP, and 15 strikeouts in 15 2/3 innings. He’ll draw the start on Monday at home against the Giants who had the second-worst wOBA (.283) and the eighth-highest strikeout rate (23.3%) against lefties last season. Meanwhile, he should be backed by plenty offense for the hot-hitting Dodgers lineup as the biggest favorite on the board. My only concern with Urias is that it seems unlikely he will pitch more than five innings which wipes out the Quality Start points on FanDuel.
Darkhorse
Caleb Smith (FD-$7,400 / DK-$7,600)
While Matz is my top pitcher on the slate, he is far from a lock to even be the best pitcher in his game. Smith pitched well at home last season with a 3.13 ERA (3.08 FIP). He also posted an impressive 27% strikeout rate. He’ll face a Mets team who will rely on some young hitters to try to improve on a very poor 2018 season against southpaws where they ranked 28th in wOBA at .285 and had the 2nd highest strikeout rate (24.7%). I’ll likely limit my exposure to Smith to GPP lineups.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Astros vs. Drew Smyly
Rangers’ lefty Drew Smyly is making his first big league appearance since 2016. Smyly has allowed a .327 wOBA to righties in his career to go along with 1.35 HR/9 and that was while pitching primarily in Detroit and Tampa Bay. The Astros have the highest Vegas implied run total on the slate and plenty of power-hitting right-handed bats.
Alex Bregman (FD-$4,300 / DK-$5,000) – Bregman got off to a slow start in the opening series hitting just 1-for-15 with a long ball for his only hit but he posted a .409 wOBA and .253 ISO against lefties last season.
George Springer (FD-$4,400 / DK-$4,800) – Springer has a career .387 wOBA and .238 ISO against southpaws.
Jose Altuve (FD-$4,400 / DK-$5,200) – Altuve had a down year by his standards last season against lefties but holds a career .383 wOBA against them.
Robinson Chirinos (FD-$2,400 / DK-$4,100) – I like the idea of a wraparound stack for the Astros to make it a little unique. Chirinos helps fill that C slot on DK and has a career .362 wOBA and .226 ISO against lefties.
Dodgers vs. Drew Pomeranz
The red-hot Dodger bats scored 42 runs through the first for games and will welcome the division-rival Giants to Dodgers Stadium on Monday. The Giants will trot out lefty Pomeranz to the hill who had a lot of trouble containing right-handed bats last season who he allowed a .401 wOBA and 1.88 HR/9 rate against. The Dodgers right-handed bats are still reasonably priced.
Justin Turner (FD-$4,000 / DK-$4,200) – Turner has been fairly quiet for the Dodgers so far this season going 4-for-15 without an extra-base hit. He has destroyed left-handed pitching the last two seasons with a wOBA over .430 in each season while posting a .324 and .244 ISO respectively in those years.
AJ Pollock (FD-$3,500 / DK-$4,300) – Pollock has joined in the fun to start his first season with the Dodgers by going 7-for-17 with a homer and six RBI. He has a career .355 wOBA and .226 ISO against southpaws.
Kike Hernandez (FD-$3,300 / DK-$4,000) – Hernandez hit leadoff against a lefty in the opening series. He has a career .360 wOBA and .226 ISO against lefties.
David Freese (FD-$2,100 / DK-$3,700) – If Freese gets the start against the lefty and bats somewhere in the top five spots in the order than plug him in with his .377 wOBA against lefties last season.
Contrarian Stack
Mariners vs. Chris Stratton
Stratton will make his first start for the Angels on Monday moving down the coast from San Francisco. He allows a lot of contact with a mere 18.3% strikeout rate in his career. He also surrendered a lot of hard contact with a 41.8% hard-hit rate and a 25.4% line drive rate last season.
Domingo Santana (FD-$3,900 / DK-$4,000) – Santiago is off to a hot start with three homers and 10 RBI in six games. He has been solid against righties during his career with a .349 wOBA and .200 ISO.
Mitch Haniger (FD-$3,900 / DK-$4,200) – Haniger showed more pop against righties than lefties last season with .219 ISO to go along with a strong .362 wOBA.
Mallex Smith (FD-$3,200 / DK-$4,100) – Smith has a hit in each of his three starts this season, has a solid .331 wOBA against righties in his career and offers some value sitting atop the Mariners lineup.
Jay Bruce (FD-$2,500 / DK-$4,000) – Bruce has homered in back-to-back games and has mashed righties throughout his career with a .345 wOBA and .229 ISO.
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