The pitching option on Monday’s nine-game MLB DFS slate looks better than I think they actually are. While there are a variety of big names on the slate there are numerous concerns surrounding them. Therefore, I’m going with pitchers that I believe to have a higher ceiling that will pitch deep into the game allowing for more strikeout opportunities and a better chance to pick up a “W”. The stacks seem pretty straightforward to me on the slate with a couple nice value stacks to consider.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Jose Berrios (FD-$10,100 / DK-$12,100)
I have too many concerns regarding Gerrit Cole and Clayton Kershaw for Monday’s slate between their recent performance, matchup (Cole) and pitch count (Kershaw). So, I’m looking to save a few bucks and roster Berrios as my Ace pitching at home as a sizable favorite. Berrios continues to love the home-cookin’ in Minnesota with a 2.62 ERA, .220 wOBA allowed and 31.2% strikeout rate this season. He also draws a favorable matchup against a Royals offense that has been struggling with the seventh highest strikeout rate (23.7%) and league-worst wOBA (.247) and wRC+ (51) against righties over the last 30 days. Cash in with Berrios.
Value
Eduardo Rodriguez (FD-$8,000 / DK-$8,400)
Finding a value option to recommend was a difficult task on Monday’s slate. I love the matchup for Chris Archer but with him making his first start in over a month, pitch count concerns rule him out. That brings me to Eduardo Rodriguez. He doesn’t have the best matchup against a Rangers offense that has hit lefties well over the last 30 days. However, he is a strong candidate for a win as a big home favorite over the Rangers. Rodriguez did also manage to strike out a season-high 10 Rangers in a previous start this season so there is some upside opportunity as well.
Darkhorse
Andrew Suarez (FD-$7,700 / DK-$8,000)
Suarez makes for an excellent mid-priced pivot away from Archer and Rodriguez in GPPs. Suarez has pitched well in his last five starts with a 2.10 ERA that included outings in Arizona and Colorado. He’ll return home on Monday to face a Cubs offense that has the 6th highest strikeout rate (24.6%) against lefties over the last 30 days. Despite his recent success, I’m hesitant to use him in Cash games but he could be a good, low owned GPP option.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Red Sox vs. Mike Minor
In theory, the Red Sox should be a chalky stack against lefty Mike Minor at Fenway Park. That said their high salaries could limit their ownership somewhat. Minor has been much worse on the road (.373 wOBA) than at home (.309 wOBA) this season. This has been especially true against righties who has allowed a .388 wOBA and 1.46 HR/9 to on the road this season. Last time I check the Red Sox have some pretty good right-handed hitters.
Mookie Betts (FD-$5,000 / DK-$6,100) – Betts has a massive .655 wOBA and .692 ISO at home against lefties this season.
JD Martinez (FD-$4,900 / DK-$5,800) – Martinez has multiple hits in four straight games including a pair of homers.
Steve Pearce (FD-$3,000 / DK-$3,900) – Pearce is the inexpensive Red Sox righty who has five hits over his last two games and a .392 wOBA and .232 ISO against lefties this season.
Xander Bogaerts (FD-$4,100 / DK-$5,000) – Bogaerts has six hits including four for extra bases over his last four games with 10 RBI during that stretch.
Twins vs. Danny Duffy
If we are going to pay up for a Red Sox stack then we better find some value stacks to match with it. The Twins offer some value hitters in a favorable matchup against lefty Danny Duffy. Duffy has been very erratic this season including six starts where he has allowed five or more runs. Righties have clobbered Duffy with a .360 wOBA and 1.95 HR/9 this season.
Brian Dozier (FD-$3,800 / DK-$4,000) – Dozier has three extra-base hits over his last two games.
Jorge Polanco (FD-$2,900 / DK-$3,800) – Polanco is 4-for-10 off Duffy and has a career .350 wOBA at home against lefties.
Robbie Grossman (FD-$2,900 / DK-$3,200) – Grossman is batting .400 with two doubles, a homer and three walks in 18 career plate appearances against Duffy.
Willans Astudillo (FD-$2,300 / DK-$3,400) – Astudillo is batting .357 over the first four games of his career including going 4-for-8 off lefties.
Contrarian Stack
Pirates vs. Jefry Rodriguez
The Pirates will face young right-hander Jefry Rodriguez who has a 5.52 ERA and allowed a 41.5% hard-hit rate through his first 14 big league innings. Meanwhile, the Nationals bullpen which has allowed the seventh highest HR/9 rate (1.22) this season could also get extended work if Rodriguez is unable to pitch deep into the game.
Starling Marte (FD-$3,200 / DK-$4,900) – Marte has four straight multi-hit games including a homer, four RBI and four steals.
Gregory Polanco (FD-$2,900 / DK-$4,600) – Polanco has .335 wOBA and .237 ISO at home against righties this season.
Colin Moran (FD-$2,400 / DK-$3,100) – Moran offers cheap, middle of the lineup value with a .361 wOBA against righties at home this season.
Corey Dickerson (FD-$2,500 / DK-$3,900) – Dickerson has five hits over his last three games and has a .345 wOBA and .174 ISO at home this year.
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