Only two weeks left in the MLB regular season and as the season winds down it becomes increasingly more difficult to pinpoint pitchers to use in DFS. With so many teams either knocked out of the playoffs or already punching their ticket to the post-season it is difficult to trust who will pitch deep into the game and who will get yanked early. This makes projecting innings one of the most important pieces of projecting pitchers at this time of the year.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Zach Godley (FD-$9,600 / DK-$11,100)
While the Diamondbacks are in the driver’s seat for the top Wild Card spot they still need to keep winning to lock down that spot. So, Godley should pitch deep into the game against a Padres’ team that has the eighth-highest strikeout rate (24.1%) against righties over the last 30 days while ranking dead last in wOBA and wRC+. The game is also in pitcher-friendly San Diego where Godley is a big road favorite. He might not have as much upside as Max Scherzer or Yu Darvish but I feel more comfortable with him as my primary Cash game option.
Value
Aaron Nola (FD-$8,900 / DK-$8,300)
Nola will likely be overlooked on tonight’s slate as an underdog against the Dodgers. However, he has pitched better at home this season with a 3.01 ERA, .266 wOBA allowed and an impressive 29.5% strikeout rate. Meanwhile, the Dodgers’ offense has struggled against righties over the last 30 days with the sixth-highest strikeout rate (24.2%) and a bottom four wOBA and wRC+. Nola can be considered as a #2 pitcher on two-pitchers sites in Cash games and as an excellent GPP option.
Darkhorse
Chris Archer (FD-$9,700 / DK-$7,900)
Archer has plenty of risk coming off three straight short outings but at his price on DraftKings he is worth the risk in a GPP lineup. He will be pitching at home where he has consistently been better throughout his career and is a small favorite against the Cubs in a game with a fairly low run total. I wouldn’t touch him on FanDuel at his price.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Astros vs. Lucas Giolito
Giolito has pitched well since getting called up by the White Sox in late August posting a 2.56 ERA over five starts. However, those starts have come against teams such as the Giants, Rays, Tigers and Royals and his xFIP is two runs higher at 4.53. He will face a much better offense on Tuesday traveling to Houston to face the Astros who have the highest wRC+ at home versus righties this season.
Marwin Gonzalez (FD-$3,000 / DK-$3,800)
George Springer (FD-$3,700 / DK-$4,800)
Carlos Correa (FD-$3,500 / DK-$4,600)
Jose Altuve (FD-$4,000 / DK-$5,100)
Marlins vs. Seth Lugo
The Marlins exploded for 13 runs in their return to Miami last night against the Mets. They should continue to put up runs against Lugo and the Mets’ bullpen tonight. Lugo has a 6.59 ERA on the road this season while allowing a .363 wOBA and 1.15 HR/9. Right-handed hitters have posted a 1.52 HR/9 off Lugo this season which elevates to 1.75 HR/9 on the road. The Marlins have a couple powerful righties to take advantage.
Giancarlo Stanton (FD-$3,800 / DK-$5,500)
Marcell Ozuna (FD-$3,400 / DK-$4,800)
Christian Yelich (FD-$3,800 / DK-$4,400)
JT Realmuto (FD-$3,000 / DK-$3,900)
Contrarian Stack
Reds vs. Jack Flaherty
Flaherty has a 6.08 ERA through his first three starts this season including one against the Reds in his last outing where he gave up three runs in 4+ innings. Flaherty has struggled with the long ball to left-handed hitters so far in his brief career giving up three homers in 29 plate appearances. The Reds feature a group of good left-handed hitters at reasonable prices to target.
Joey Votto (FD-$4,200 / DK-$5,300)
Scooter Gennett (FD-$3,200 / DK-$4,000)
Jesse Winker (FD-$2,900 / DK-$3,400)
Scott Schebler (FD-$2,800 / DK-$4,100)
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