MLB – On the Hill – September 2

Welcome to the final edition of the “On the Hill” column for the 2016 MLB season. It has been a fun year with many good days (and a few bad ones) and I am glad to be ranked with a solid 8th place showing in our pitcher rankings out of 16 experts this season. I am also proud to say that I have done it by not just recommending just high-priced options, I have done it with the fourth lowest average DraftKings salary for my selections and have the third highest DK points per dollar of any expert this season.

Today, we have a 14-game slate and for my last article, I have added a bonus Darkhorse pick. Let’s see if I can go out with a big night. Thanks to everyone who has read and followed my column this season.

Be sure to continue to follow me and come back to DailyOverlay during the NFL season, as I will be writing my weekly “Offensive Tendencies” column again this season.

Ace

Carlos Carrasco (FD-$10,400 / DK-$10,700)

Carrasco should be in line for a good game tonight. He is one of the biggest favorites on the slate pitching against a Marlins’ team that has struggled recently with the fourth lowest wRC+ (77), fifth lowest wOBA (.288) and league worst hard hit percent (24.9%) over the last 14 days. Meanwhile, Carrasco has struck out at least eight batters in each of his last five starts. Carrasco is a solid Cash and GPP option.

Value

Danny Duffy (FD-$9,700 / DK-$9,100)

Prior to his struggles in Boston during his last outing, Duffy had gone five straight starts allowing two runs or less, which included a start against tonight’s opponent the Tigers. He has also shown the ability to pitch deep into games throwing six or more innings in 11 of his last 12 starts. Duffy is a potential Cash game option on DraftKings and GPP option on either site.

Jameson Taillon (FD-$7,400 / DK-$8,400)

Taillon did not fare too well against the Brewers on Saturday going only three innings while allowing five runs but I expect him to bounce back tonight at home against the same Brewers team. The Brewers have the seventh worst wOBA and wRC+ on the road this season and the highest strikeout rate against righties (25.8%). Meanwhile, Taillon has pitched better at home this season with a 2.86 ERA and .280 wOBA allowed. Taillon is a Cash game option if you want to pay down at pitcher tonight, especially on FanDuel, and also worth GPP consideration.

Darkhorse

Kyle Gibson (FD-$6,400 / DK-$5,000)

My Gibson pick tonight is a total BvP call. I typically only use BvP as a tie-breaker or to see if it helps reinforce a solid matchup but Gibson’s success against the White Sox is so extreme that I am going to recommend him sole due to his BvP. He has faced White Sox hitters for 130 plate appearances and has allowed just a .149 batting average and .186 wOBA including a total of only five extra base hits. While the strikeout numbers are not there he has a good chance to pitch deep into the game and allow very few baserunners and runs. While I probably wouldn’t play him on FanDuel, his price and the potential for a solid outing are worth the measly $5,000 he costs on DraftKings.

Clayton Richard (FD-$6,300 / DK-$4,400)

Richard is a left-handed pitcher and will face a Dodgers team that has been terrible against lefties with the third worst wRC+ (75) and league worst wOBA (.280) against them this season. Much like Gibson, Richard is not going to register a ton of strikeouts but he has not allowed a run in either of his last two starts spanning 13 innings. He is a big road underdog tonight but has a sneaky opportunity for a strong outing and a win. Also like Gibson, I probably wouldn’t play him on FanDuel but is a worth a flier on DraftKings at only $4,400.

On the Hill – Results

Wednesday

Season

• DK Cost is the average DraftKings cost per pitcher selected
• DK Pts is the average DraftKings points scored per pitcher selected
• DO Score is the Daily Overlay score for each type

Come back to DailyOverlay later today for the MLB Consensus list and some sample MLB lineups.

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