Welcome to the Labor Day edition of On the Hill. Today’s article will focus on the nine-game early “main” slate on DraftKings. FanDuel is up to their usual tricks of breaking up the slate into about a bunch of different mini slates. Note that I plan on continuing to produce this article for at least the next couple of weeks but in a limited or “express” format focusing on the picks but with limited commentary. Also, watch for the MLB Weighted Consensus for today to come out shortly.
We will provide one piece of free content each weekday during the MLB season. This On the Hill article will be free on Mondays and Tuesdays but will be part of the premium content the rest of the week. Be sure to sign up for our Premium Content so you don’t miss out on any of the content we have here at DailyOverlay.
Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Carlos Martinez (FD-$9,900 / DK-$11,800)
Martinez is in an ideal spot today pitching against the Padres’ weak offense in San Diego. He allowed just one run over seven innings with six strikeouts against the Padres two starts ago and sizable road favorite today. Martinez doesn’t have the strikeout upside of a true ace but on a slate with limited pitching options with strikeout upside, he comes in as the top pitcher worth using in both Cash and GPP lineups.
Value
Trevor Bauer (FD-$9,000 / DK-$8,800)
Bauer is the one pitcher on this slate that has the biggest upside due to his strikeout potential and matchup. He is the largest favorite on the slate by a wide margin and will face a White Sox team that has a 23.2% strikeout rate this season and an even higher 24.9% rate over the last 30 days. The Indians are hot winning 11 straight games and should be able to make it 12 against the White Sox. Bauer is a viable option in both Cash and GPP lineups.
Darkhorse
Jake Junis (FD-$7,300 / DK-$7,900)
Junis will face a Tigers’ team that has thrown in the towel on the season. They have traded away many of the best players and are now in evaluation mode for their young players so they can see what they have for the future. The Tigers have only scored four runs over their last four games and have the eighth highest strikeout rate (24.2%) to righties over the last 14 days. Junis has pitched well in his last four starts tallying 15 strikeouts over 11 innings while allowing just two runs. Junis should be able to take advantage of a cold Tigers’ offense who is pitching a rookie making his first big league start on Monday.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Giants vs. Chad Bettis
I have interest in both the Giants and Rockies today at Coors Field but the Giants’ hitters offer a lot of value (especially on DraftKings) for a team playing at Coors. Bettis has allowed five runs in each of his last two starts including four home runs. Over his career, he has allowed a .363 wOBA at Coors Field and righties have a .373 wOBA and 1.53 HR/9.
Buster Posey (FD-$4,100 / DK-$4,300)
Hunter Pence (FD-$3,500 / DK-$3,800)
Denard Span (FD-$3,400 / DK-$3,800)
Brandon Crawford (FD-$3,900 / DK-$3,800)
Brewers vs. Homer Bailey
Bailey may be my most targeted pitcher this season. He has a 9.95 ERA at home this season with a .451 wOBA allowed and 2.13 HR/9. He will be pitching at home against the Brewers’ offense which has had a lot of success at Cincinnati this season, especially Eric Thames and Travis Shaw.
Eric Thames (FD-$3,100 / DK-$4,100)
Travis Shaw (FD-$2,900 / DK-$3,900)
Ryan Braun (FD-$2,900 / DK-$3,700)
Neil Walker (FD-$2,900 / DK-$3,700)
Contrarian Stack
Cubs vs. Chad Kuhl
With so many good teams to stack, I expect the Cubs to fall a little bit off the radar. They have had a lot of success against Kuhl in his career with a cumulative .514 wOBA including seven doubles and five home runs in just 78 plate appearances. Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo and Jason Heyward have had the most success going a combined 16-for-28 with four homers but all Cubs’ left-handed hitters are in play against Kuhl who has allowed a .375 wOBA and 1.17 HR/9 to lefties this season.
Anthony Rizzo (FD-$5,000 / DK-$5,400)
Ben Zobrist (FD-$3,500 / DK-$3,700)
Ian Happ (FD-$3,100 / DK-$4,400)
Alex Avila (FD-$2,800 / DK-$3,800)
Follow me on Twitter @Rotopilot
