Thursday night in the MLB brings us a solid seven-game DFS slate that is loaded with strong pitching options. Navigating the top end arms could hold the key to success on Thursday and give you a leg up on the competition on a night where finding the right stack could be more challenging. As we close in on the Midsummer Classic, today’s On the Hill article will be a free offering.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Corey Kluber (FD-$11,200 / DK-$10,200)
Which top end pitcher you roster should largely depend on which site you are playing on. On DraftKings, which is the primary focus of this article and our grading, Corey Kluber’s $10,200 price tag is hard to overlook in a matchup with a Yankees squad that can be prone to strikeouts. Kluber’s strikeout number have been down his last few starts but he has had great success against Yankees hitters over his career allowing just a .184 wOBA with a 31.6% strikeout rate in 76 plate appearances. He also fares better at home with a 1.43 ERA, .220 wOBA allowed and 27.5% strikeout rate this season. I expect him to be amped up for a potential playoff preview against Luis Severino and the Yankees. All that said on FanDuel, due to pricing, I’d probably pivot to either Max Scherzer for just $800 more or pivot down to my next pitcher, Ross Stripling for $2,000 less.
Value
Ross Stripling (FD-$9,200 / DK-$9,100)
Stripling has put together a very good season for the Dodgers with a 2.22 ERA that is supported by a 2.74 xFIP and .315 BABIP. Meanwhile, his ERA, wOBA and K% have all been better on the road this season. Thursday, Stripling will be on the road in San Diego in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks against one of the most pitcher-friendly teams against right-handed pitchers. Over the last 30 days, the Padres have the 2nd highest strikeout rate (26.9%) while producing a bottom three wOBA (.279), ISO (.111) and wRC+ (77). Stripling is a big road favorite and perfectly suited as a value pitching option in both Cash and GPP lineups on all sites.
Darkhorse
Jameson Taillon (FD-$7,300 / DK-$5,700)
My recommendation of Taillon has more to do with game theory than it does numbers for the most part. The Brewers just completed a series in Miami in which they played two extra-inning games including a 12-inning game last night prior to traveling to Pittsburgh for the start of a five-game series over the next four days. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Brewers bats experienced a little bit of jet lag in Pittsburgh tonight against Taillon who did record seven strikeouts over five innings while allowing three runs in a recent start against the Brewers in Pittsburgh. Taillon and the Pirates are also a small home favorite against the first-place Brewers who have the 3rd highest strikeout rate (26.4%) against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days. He makes for a great, cheap GPP option to pair with either Max Scherzer or Blake Snell, who I also think has a strong “All-Star Snub” narrative working in his favor tonight if the rain holds off in Minnesota.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Dodgers vs. Tyson Ross
Using Dodgers stacks in San Diego has been a little hit-and-miss during the first three games of their series. The best result came when the Padres had a right-hander take the hill in game one and I expect similar results when righty Tyson Ross toes the rubber to close out the series on Thursday. Ross has been lit up in his last two starts allowing 15 runs including four homers in just seven innings of work. Left-handed hitters have a .381 wOBA and 1.54 HR/9 off him this season and the Dodgers have lefties that can swing the lumber.
Max Muncy (FD-$4,400 / DK-$4,900) – Muncy has four hits over his last two games including a long ball and has a .414 wOBA and .331 ISO against righties this season.
Joc Pederson (FD-$3,300 / DK-$4,300) – Pederson is the Dodgers leadoff man against righties and has punished them with a .390 wOBA and .310 ISO this year.
Cody Bellinger (FD-$4,200 / DK-$4,600) – Bellinger has six hits over his last three games including four doubles and has a .432 wOBA and .349 ISO on the road against righties this season.
Yasmani Grandal (FD-$3,200 / DK-$4,200) – I usually only recommend Grandal at home against righties but after getting the last two games off with lefties on the mound he should be well rested to take on his former team who he has hit 13 homers against in 49 career games.
Nationals vs. Steven Matz
Matz has pitched well recently but overall this season he has struggled more at home with a 4.17 ERA, .331 wOBA allowed and 1.99 HR/9 served up. Most of that damage has come via right-handed hitters who have a .351 wOBA, 38.5% hard-hit rate and 2.35 HR/9 against him. The Nationals bring a potent offense to New York that has some solid right-handed sticks to take advantage of Matz’ splits.
Anthony Rendon (FD-$3,900 / DK-$4,700) – Rendon has a .376 wOBA and .240 ISO against southpaws this season.
Trea Turner (FD-$3,900 / DK-$4,800) – Turner has a solid .331 wOBA against lefties this season.
Michael Taylor (FD-$2,500 / DK-$3,500) – Taylor offers some salary relief for a Nationals stack and has homered once in 14 career at-bats against Matz.
Mark Reynolds (FD-$3,200 / DK-$4,400) – Reynolds showed his upside with a monster 10-RBI game over the weekend and has hit Matz well in a small sample going 4-for-8 with three doubles.
Contrarian Stack
Mariners vs. Tyler Skaggs
Tyler Skaggs has been a solid pitcher this season only allowing more than three runs twice in 16 starts. So, picking on him will certainly be contrarian even on a small seven-game slate. However, the Mariners hitters have some familiarity with Skaggs and have shown some power against him in previous outings. It is that HR upside we seek in a stack.
Nelson Cruz (FD-$3,700 / DK-$4,500) – Cruz has hit two homers off Skaggs in 19 career at-bats, granted those are his only two hits off the lefty making him a boom-or-bust option despite his .436 wOBA and .384 ISO against lefties this season.
Jean Segura (FD-$3,800 / DK-$4,100) – The newly voted All-Star is 6-for-8 off Skaggs in his career and has a .466 wOBA and .200 ISO on the road against lefties this season.
Kyle Seager (FD-$2,800 / DK-$3,700) – Seager is batting .333 with a pair of homers off Skaggs in 21 career at-bats.
Guillermo Heredia (FD-$2,100 / DK-$2,700) – Watch Heredia’s status and lineup spot closely on Thursday. If he sneaks into the top of the lineup or bats near the end of the order then consider him as a cheap option to fill out a Mariners stack with his 4-for-6, two doubles and a homer off Skaggs in his career.
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