After a pair of seven-game MLB slates on Wednesday, we have another seven-gamer on Thursday night. The big question on Thursday’s slate is do you pay up for Max Scherzer? The answer usually comes down to is there a good enough cheap pitching option to pair him with and are there enough value bats on the slate to make it work and feel good about your lineup. My answers to these questions reside inside so be sure to sign up for our free 7-day trial if you aren’t already a subscriber.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Max Scherzer (FD-$12,200 / DK-$14,500)
I believe the answer to the questions I posed in the intro is “Yes”, there is enough value on the slate, as long as the weather cooperates, to pay the hefty price tag on Scherzer and still build a lineup you are comfortable with. Scherzer is the no-brainer top play with his .268 wOBA allowed and huge 37.9% strikeout rate against Orioles hitters in 174 career plate appearances. He is also a massive Vegas favorite as you would expect. There is enough value to go around so plugin Mad Max.
Value
Carlos Martinez (FD-$7,300 / DK-$8,000)
There will be two popular routes with starting pitching on Thursday’s slate. One will be to jam in Scherzer and whichever cheap pitcher you are comfortable with. The second will be to roster to “value aces” who aren’t pitching well right now with Carlos Martinez and Madison Bumgarner. I lean toward the Scherzer route as I’d rather have one wild card with the cheap option I plug in rather than two wild cards with Martinez and Bumgarner. Of the two I prefer Martinez even though he has struggled with his control since returning from the DL with 18 walks in three starts. He’ll face a Brewers team that he is familiar with and has been effective against this season allowing just one run in 14+ innings over two starts while striking out 14 hitters. I’ll have some exposure to the Martinez/Bumgarner combo but probably not in my primary cash game lineup.
Darkhorse
Chris Bassitt (FD-$6,800 / DK-$6,300)
There are two pitchers that I like in the bargain bin on Thursday’s slate, Chris Bassitt and Chad Kuhl. I’ll give Bassitt the edge as long as the rain holds off in Chicago for his matchup with the White Sox. The White Sox have been dreadful against righties over the last 30 days with a league-high strikeout rate (27.8%) and a bottom three wOBA (.279) and wRC+ (75). Bassitt is a former White Sox prospect which could give him a little extra incentive tonight while the A’s bats should give him some run support giving him a good shot at a win. Pair him or Kuhl with Scherzer on two-pitcher sites in Cash and GPP lineups.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Cubs vs. Matt Harvey
The other reason I’m okay with paying up for Scherzer is the top two stacks of the night have a nice variety of inexpensive hitting options to choose from. The Cubs will travel to Cincy to face Matt Harvey and the Reds. Harvey has allowed three or more runs in each of his last four starts and has been especially bad against lefties this season allowing a .393 wOBA and 2.48 HR/9. Of course, you can also use Anthony Rizzo in the Cubs stack but I’m focusing on value so give me the cheaper lefties.
Kyle Schwarber (FD-$3,500 / DK-$4,300) – Schwarber has homered in back-to-back games and has a .375 wOBA and .319 ISO on the road against righties this season.
Ian Happ (FD-$2,600 / DK-$3,700) – Happ has hit over half of his homers this season on the road against righties where he has posted a .406 wOBA and .310 ISO.
Ben Zobrist (FD-$2,800 / DK-$4,000) – Zobrist is another Cubs hitter that is doing his best work on the road against righties this season with a .431 wOBA and .359 ISO.
Jason Heyward (FD-$2,700 / DK-$3,900) – Heyward has posted a solid .349 wOBA against righties this season.
Athletics vs. Lucas Giolito
The A’s get a positive hitting upgrade playing in Chicago on Thursday and get a struggling righty on top of it. Giolito has an 11.05 ERA at home this season and has been crushed by lefties allowing a .401 wOBA for the season, not that righties are necessarily struggling against him with a 1.53 HR/9 rate.
Matt Olson (FD-$3,000 / DK-$3,900) – Olson has mashed righties on the road this season with a .383 wOBA and .301 ISO.
Jed Lowrie (FD-$3,400 / DK-$4,200) – Lowrie is riding a five-game hitting streak where he has recorded nine hits including homering in back-to-back games.
Dustin Fowler (FD-$2,100 / DK-$4,100) – Fowler should move back to the top of the lineup with the A’s facing their first right-handed starter in a week. He has a .407 wOBA and .267 ISO on the road against righties this season.
Khris Davis (FD-$4,100 / DK-$5,200) – Davis is not a value but he is hard to leave off an A’s stack with 16 of his 20 homers off righties this season for a .379 wOBA and .324 ISO against them.
Contrarian Stack
Pirates vs. Zack Godley
The Pirates got a day off on Wednesday due to a rainout but will remain at home to face the Diamondbacks and Zack Godley on Thursday. Godley has pitched well at home this season but has struggled on the road with a 6.53 ERA and .365 wOBA allowed. Both righties and lefties have wOBA over .360 off him on the road this season.
Francisco Cervelli (FD-$2,900 / DK-$3,700) – Cervelli has a .399 wOBA and .245 ISO against righties this season.
Starling Marte (FD-$3,400 / DK-$4,100) – Marte has posted a .359 wOBA at home against righties this year.
Corey Dickerson (FD-$2,800 / DK-$3,700) – Either Dickerson or Austin Meadows, whoever bats 2nd, is my choice for this spot. Dickerson has a career .361 wOBA and .241 ISO against righties.
Colin Moran (FD-$2,900 / DK-$3,400) – Moran has a seven-game hitting streak that has included a pair of homers and has posted a .405 wOBA and .195 ISO at home against righties this season.
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