Pitching options are a little tenuous as an unexpected pitcher makes his way into “Ace” status on Thursday’s nine-game MLB slate. While my favorite pitcher to use in GPPs and consider in Cash games on two-pitcher sites should fly way under the radar. There are two games to give strong consideration to when rostering hitters with both the Brewers/Rockies and Royals/Orioles games coming in with double-digit Vegas run totals. Two of those teams are my top stacks of the night but I will go off the radar with my Contrarian stack. Get Thursday’s “On the Hill” column for free! If you like what you see then be sure to sign up for a 7-day free trial of our Premium Content so you don’t miss out on any of the content we have here at DailyOverlay.
Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Miles Mikolas (FD-$8,500 / DK-$10,200)
Mikolas has come a long way in a short time to be worthy of my “ace” selection on Thursday’s slate. He has been consistently good over his last four starts pitching seven innings in each outing while allowing two runs or less in each game. His strikeout numbers won’t blow you away but with just two walks on the season, he should be able to stay out of trouble against the Padres in San Diego. The Padres have the highest strikeout rate (27.5%) against righties this season while ranking in the bottom five in wOBA, ISO and wRC+. Mikolas might not have the upside of some of the pitchers on this slate but he doesn’t have the downside of them either making him a solid Cash game option.
Value
Garrett Richards (FD-$8,800 / DK-$8,900)
If you are looking for a little more risk/reward while saving a few bucks (at least on DK), then give Richards some consideration. Richards has posted a 30.0% strikeout rate so far this season with a 34.9% rate at home where he will be pitching against the Twins on Thursday. Richards has done well against Twins hitters over his career allowing just a .277 wOBA with a solid 20.5% strikeout rate. As a home favorite with some strikeout upside, Richards is a nice complement to Mikolas on two-pitcher sites and a GPP pivot on any site.
Darkhorse
Tanner Roark (FD-$8,300 / DK-$7,400)
Facing the Diamondbacks and Zack Greinke in Arizona doesn’t sound like a recipe for success for the opposing pitcher so look for Roark’s ownership to be very low. However, I think he is worth a shot, especially on DK with a significantly lower salary. Roark has dominated Diamondbacks hitters over his career allowing a minuscule .187 wOBA with an impressive 30.8% strikeout rate in 65 plate appearances. Hot temps will likely result in the roof being closed which will also help along with the humidor effect. He might be too risky for Cash games unless you want to stack up the game at Coors Field but is a nice GPP pivot to fit in some big bats.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Brewers vs. German Marquez
Visiting team playing at Coors Field is always in play and the Brewers are no different. They have a good offense that I think will play nicely in the spacious surroundings of Coors with a lot of hitters that make contact and can find the gaps hitting at the top of the lineup. Marquez has already had a couple blow up starts at home this season allowing six and seven runs respectively in two of his three home starts.
Travis Shaw (FD-$4,100 / DK-$4,600) – Shaw has a .377 wOBA and .301 ISO against righties this season.
Christian Yelich (FD-$4,000 / DK-$4,800) – Yelich is batting .375 over his last eight games and has a career .378 wOBA on the road against righties.
Ryan Braun (FD-$3,700 / DK-$4,600) – Braun should be fresh after a day off on Wednesday and has 17 extra-base hits in 32 career games at Coors Field.
Lorenzo Cain (FD-$3,600 / DK-$4,600) – Cain has a .408 wOBA on the road this season and has five hits over his last four games.
Royals vs. Chris Tillman
Chris Tillman may be the pitcher I write about the most on my Stacks section. He continues to get pummeled every fifth day including serving up seven runs in one inning in his last start against the Angels. Next up for Tillman is the Royals who have scored 18 runs through the first two games of the series. While both lefties and righties have their way with Tillman, lefties have done the most damage with a .517 wOBA off the right-hander. If any of the players below sit out then look to pivot to Jorge Soler in your Royals stack.
Mike Moustakas (FD-$4,100 / DK-$4,500) – Moustakas has hit nine of his 10 homers this season off of righties for a .435 wOBA and .371 ISO.
Salvador Perez (FD-$3,300 / DK-$3,900) – Perez has three hits including a home run in his last two games and has a .409 wOBA against righties this season.
Lucas Duda (FD-$2,500 / DK-$3,400) – Duda smacked a home run last night and has a .353 wOBA against righties this season.
Alex Gordon (FD-$3,100 / DK-$3,800) – Gordon is hitting well this month with a .429 average and three home runs in seven games.
Contrarian Stack
Dodgers vs. Tyler Mahle
I always have some interest in the Dodgers when they are at home against a righty, even with their depleted lineup. Mahle has allowed a lot of hard contact (38.9%) this season while the ball is usually in the air either via a line drive (24.8%) or fly ball (36.2%). Those hard-hit, sky balls tend to find their way out of the yard as his 2.84 HR/9 rate will attest too.
Yasmani Grandal (FD-$3,100 / DK-$3,600) – I know I’ve quoted these numbers before but Grandal has hit 32 of his 54 home runs over the past 2+ season off right-handed pitchers at home.
Cody Bellinger (FD-$3,700 / DK-$4,200) – Bellinger has a career .388 wOBA and .306 ISO at home against righties.
Joc Pederson (FD-$2,500 / DK-$3,700) – Pederson has a .382 wOBA against righties this season and a .357 mark for his career.
Matt Kemp (FD-$3,400 / DK-$3,700) – Kemp is batting .448 with four extra-base hits over his last seven games.
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