For the small four-game Thursday night slate I am all-in on three teams which will garner all of my attention both on the mound and at the plate. Two of the teams are fairly obvious as the Red Sox and Angels are both favorites against terrible pitchers. The third leg of my trio is the White Sox (assuming the game doesn’t get rained out). Since I am short on time with the extra work due to the split slate, I will primarily just be listing my top plays with very little analysis.
Be sure to sign up for our Premium Content so you don’t miss out on any of the content we have here at DailyOverlay.
Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
David Price (FD-$8,100 / DK-$9,700)
The only other “Ace” to consider on Thursday’s slate is Sean Manaea who has been pitching sensational this season. On FanDuel, I will give Manaea stronger consideration since his salary ($9,000) is more reasonable but on DraftKings I’d rather pay down and get Price as a bigger Vegas favorite in a better matchup against the Rangers who have the 7th highest strikeout rate (25.2%) against lefties this season.
Value
Jaime Barria (FD-$5,900 / DK-$4,000)
I don’t expect Barria to pitch more than five innings on Thursday which does limit his upside but he draws a favorable matchup against the Orioles who have the 3rd highest strikeout rate while ranking in the bottom three in wOBA and wRC+ against righties this season. Five innings with a few strikeouts and a win are enough to pay off his low salary.
Darkhorse
Reynaldo Lopez (FD-$7,300 / DK-$7,600)
Make sure the White Sox/Twins game plays before slotting in Lopez. Lopez has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his five starts this season and has shown some strikeout potential with a 10 K performance against the A’s earlier this season. Cooler temps with a little breeze blowing in and some rain could help pitchers in this matchup. Give him a shot in a GPP only.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Red Sox vs. Mike Minor
Red Sox have the highest Vegas implied run total on the night slate and face Rangers’ lefty, Mike Minor. Minor has allowed four or more runs in two of his last three starts and for the season has given up a .355 wOBA to right-handed hitters.
Mookie Betts (FD-$4,600 / DK-$5,700)
JD Martinez (FD-$4,400 / DK-$5,300)
Hanley Ramirez (FD-$3,900 / DK-$4,400)
Xander Bogaerts (FD-$4,000 / DK-$5,200)
Angels vs. Chris Tillman
The Angels have the 2nd highest Vegas implied run total on the slate and will square off against Tillman who has a 7.03 ERA this season while allowing a .541 wOBA to lefties. He also allowed a .400+ wOBA to both righties and lefties last season.
Mike Trout (FD-$5,400 / DK-$5,900)
Shohei Ohtani (FD-$3,800 / DK-$4,800)
Luis Valbuena (FD-$2,800 / DK-$3,300)
Ian Kinsler (FD-$3,200 / DK-$3,700)
Contrarian Stack
White Sox vs. Jake Odorizzi
Odorizzi has had reverse-splits over his career allowing a higher wOBA (.328) and HR/9 (1.55) to right-handed hitters. This doesn’t play well with the right-handed power in the White Sox lineup unless you are going to stack against him.
Yoan Moncada (FD-$4,100 / DK-$4,400)
Matt Davidson (FD-$3,900 / DK-$4,000)
Jose Abreu (FD-$3,800 / DK-$4,100)
Welington Castillo (FD-$2,300 / DK-$3,000)
Follow me on Twitter @Rotopilot
