Thursday features a split slate of MLB action with a five-game early slate and a five-game main slate. I’m going to pull double-duty today and provide a brief article that lists out my top plays for each slate.
This article is for the early slate of games that includes a game in the cold weather at Coors Field. So, do you use bats there or not? I think the answer is still “yes”, but I would limit my exposure there and maybe even consider using one of the pitchers in GPPs. I will also be listing four three-man stacks for this small slate instead of my typical three four-man stacks.
This article will be a freebie since it is for a small slate and only lists my top plays without much analysis.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Carlos Carrasco (FD-$9,900 / DK-$10,200)
Carrasco is the biggest Vegas favorite on the slate and has the most strikeout upside against a White Sox team that ranks 7th in strikeout rate (25.9%) against righties this season. Carrasco has also shut down White Sox hitter over his career with a .243 wOBA allowed and a 31.9% strikeout rate in 166 plate appearances.
Value
Tanner Roark (FD-$7,600 / DK-$7,600)
I like both pitchers in the Reds/A’s matchup on Thursday afternoon with both Roark and Chris Bassitt. I’m make Roark my official pick since he is cheaper on both sites and actually comes out a little ahead of Bassitt in my model.
Darkhorse
Kyle Freeland (FD-$ / DK-$6,700)
Cold weather. That is the only reason to even consider a pitcher in this game at Coors Field. Call it a hunch but I have a feeling that Freeland puts up a strong outing against a Giants team that ranks 29th in wOBA (.258) and 28th in wRC+ (60) against lefties this season.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Rockies vs. Derek Holland
While the cold weather in Colorado has me off the Giants hitters, I just can resist still getting a piece of the Rockies righties at home against lefty Derek Holland.
Nolan Arenado (FD-$4,800 / DK-$5,800)
Trevor Story (FD-$4,600 / DK-$5,600)
Ian Desmond (FD-$3,400 / DK-$4,400)
Indians vs. Manny Banuelos
The Indians as a whole have not hit lefties well this season, which could even make Banuelos worth a GPP flier. However, I like the price tag on the primary Indians hitters who each do hit lefties well while Banuelos has allowed a .406 wOBA to righties this season.
Francisco Lindor (FD-$3,500 / DK-$4,700)
Jose Ramirez (FD-$3,400 / DK-$4,400)
Carlos Santana (FD-$3,900 / DK-$4,600)
Angels vs. Ryan Carpenter
Carpenter will make his first start of the season on Thursday against the Angels. In six games (five starts) last year the lefty allowed a .443 wOBA and 3.31 HR/9 to right-handed hitters. Fletcher and Trout offer a nice 1-2 punch at the top of the lineup and Lucroy is hot right now.
Mike Trout (FD-$4,700 / DK-$5,600)
David Fletcher (FD-$2,700 / DK-$4,200)
Jonathan Lucroy (FD-$2,800 / DK-$3,900)
Tigers vs. Luke Bard (Felix Pena)
Bard will be the opener with Pena likely to follow for the Angles on Thursday. The Tigers are a solid contrarian value stack to consider coming off a 10-run game last night.
Ronny Rodriguez (FD-$3,400 / DK-$3,800)
Niko Goodrum (FD-$3,200 / DK-$3,500)
Nicholas Castellanos (FD-$3,700 / DK-$4,000)
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