Monday night’s 12-game MLB slate is loaded with numerous excellent stacking opportunities. However, finding pitching is a completely different story. There are a couple big name pitchers on the slate including Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke but are they worth paying up for with so many hitters we want? Find out my thoughts in today’s On the Hill article.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Shane Bieber (FD-$8,200 / DK-$9,600)
I’m looking to save as much as possible with my pitching selections on Tuesday’s slate so that I can spend up on bats. Therefore, my pitching starts off with a “value ace” in Shane Bieber. Bieber is a big road favorite pitching against the Royals in KC. The Royals have been brutal against righties over the last 30 days ranking dead last in wOBA (.238) and wRC+ (45). Meanwhile, Bieber has pitched well in three straight starts allowing a total of two runs over 18+ innings while registering 21 strikeouts. If you feel you must “pay up” at pitcher then Bieber is as high as I would go.
Value
Chris Bassitt (FD-$7,000 / DK-$6,300)
Bassitt is pitching at home against the Padres as a small favorite. Bassitt has been a little up and down through his first four starts of the season but will get a favorable matchup against a Padres offense that has the second-highest strikeout rate (25.8%) and ranks in the bottom four in wOBA, ISO and wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season. Bassitt has pitched better at home over his career with a 3.07 ERA and .285 wOBA allowed. Consider Bassitt in Cash games on two-pitcher sites and in GPPs on any site.
Darkhorse
Ryan Yarbrough (FD-$6,100 / DK-$6,200)
Yarbrough has been pitching in long relief as part of the Rays “starting reliever” experiment. He has performed well in that role racking up seven wins and a solid 3.76 ERA on the season. Yarbrough gets the ball to begin the game on Tuesday in Miami against a Marlins offense that has struggled against lefties with the third lowest wOBA (.257) and wRC+ (60) over the last 30 days to go along with the seventh highest strikeout rate (24.1%) during that stretch. Give consideration to pairing up Yarbrough with Bassitt on two-pitcher sites to allow you to pay up for multiple high-priced bats/stacks.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Giants vs. Antonio Senzatela
Senzatela will make his first start of the season Tuesday night against the Giants at Coors Field. So far in his career, Senzatela has a 5.28 ERA at home while allowing a .339 wOBA and 1.45 HR/9. Right-handed hitters have a .354 wOBA against Senzatela at home while lefties have 1.60 HR/9 rate.
Brandon Belt (FD-$3,700 / DK-$5,500) – Belt has a .419 wOBA and .280 ISO against righties this season and is 3-for-9 with a pair of doubles against Senzatela in his career.
Joe Panik (FD-$3,500 / DK-$4,400) – Panik has five hits including a home run and six RBI over his last four games and has owned Senzatela in his brief career batting .400 with a double and two homers in 10 career at-bats.
Brandon Crawford (FD-$4,300 / DK-$5,200) – Crawford has posted a .379 wOBA against righties this season.
Pablo Sandoval (FD-$3,000 / DK-$3,800) – Sandoval has hit righties well this season with a .358 wOBA and five homers.
Astros vs. Austin Bibens-Dirkx
The Astros lead the league in wOBA and wRC+ on the road this season and get an ideal spot on Tuesday on the road in near triple digit temps while facing Rangers righty Austin Bibens-Dirkx. Bibens-Dirkx allows plenty of contact with a low 13.9% career strikeout rate and a career 41.2% hard-hit rate by righties. The Astros have plenty of righties to take advantage.
Alex Bregman (FD-$4,500 / DK-$5,400) – Bregman is red-hot with a seven-game hitting streak that has included five doubles and five home runs.
Jose Altuve (FD-$4,300 / DK-$5,100) – Altuve has a .436 wOBA on the road against righties this season.
George Springer (FD-$3,700 / DK-$4,800) – Make sure Springer rejoins the Astros lineup on Tuesday before plugging him into a stack.
Evan Gattis (FD-$3,400 / DK-$4,300) – Gattis is coming off a two-homer game and has a .405 wOBA and .281 ISO on the road against righties this season.
Contrarian Stack
Mets vs. Marco Estrada
While Estrada has not allowed a homer in his last three starts, he continues to give up plenty of fly balls (53.7%) in those outings. Righties do the most damage against Estrada with a .359 wOBA and 1.76 HR/9 allowed this season.
Brandon Nimmo (FD-$3,000 / DK-$4,400) – Nimmo has a .414 wOBA and .299 ISO against righties this season making him hard to leave off a Mets stack even with Estrada’s reverse splits.
Jose Bautista (FD-$2,600 / DK-$3,600) – Bautista returns to Toronto and has been hitting well recently batting .286 with four doubles and three homers over his last nine games.
Wilmer Flores (FD-$3,000 / DK-$3,500) – Flores has a nine-game hitting streak and is hitting righties better than lefties this season with a .366 wOBA and .227 ISO.
Todd Frazier (FD-$2,900 / DK-$3,600) – Frazier offers plenty of righty power and has fared well against Estrada in his career batting .318 with a double and two homers in 22 career at-bats.
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