Wednesday’s On the Hill article to focus on the five-game night slate. There shouldn’t be much trouble fitting in your favorite pitchers and hitter stacks on the Wednesday night slate with reasonable salaries on the top hitter’s stacks and quality mid-priced arms to pair them with.
Since the Wednesday night slate is just five games, I am going to make today’s On the Hill a free read. If you want to get this article along with the MLB Weighted Consensus rankings and all of the rest of the great MLB and PGA content here at DailyOverlay, then be sure to sign up for our 7-day free trial.
Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Carlos Martinez (FD-$7,900 / DK-$10,200)
The perception is (or at least my perception was) that the Brewers have made strides this season to cut down on their strikeouts with the addition of Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich. However, they still lead the league in strikeout rate (29.2%) versus right-handed pitchers over the first week of the season. Martinez has posted a solid 24.3% strikeout rate against the Brewers’ current hitters in his career over 152 plate appearances and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Brewers give a few regulars the night off on Wednesday. Look for Martinez to be very chalky on FanDuel and I might only use him in Cash games as I like a few other pitchers that should be lower owned in GPPs.
Value
Jon Gray (FD-$8,000 / DK-$8,500)
Gray has a 24.7% strikeout rate in his career and has a posted a 26.1% strikeout rate against Padres’ hitters in 69 career plate appearances. He will get a favorable park adjustment pitching in San Diego as a small favorite in a game with the lowest Vegas run total on the slate. I also like the Rockies’ bats tonight (see Stacks) so I expect Gray to come away with the win points to bolster his final fantasy point total. Gray should tally one of the highest strikeout totals on the slate so be sure to get some exposure to him in GPPs, in additional to Cash games on sites that require two pitchers.
Darkhorse
Aaron Sanchez (FD-$6,200 / DK-$7,800)
I had a hard time deciding between Sanchez and Sean Manaea for this spot. I will likely have exposure to both of them in GPPs. Manaea gets the benefit of a favorable pitcher’s umpire who yields higher strikeout rates and fewer runs. However, since that was the main selling point on Manaea against Texas, I’m going to recommend Sanchez against the White Sox instead. The White Sox posted the 6th highest strikeout rate (23.7%) against right-handed pitchers last season while ranking in the bottom seven in wOBA and wRC+ as well. Meanwhile, Sanchez started to flash some elite ability in 2016 before an injury-plagued 2017 season. Get some exposure to Sanchez in GPPs but stay away in Cash games until he proves he can be consistent.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Blue Jays vs. Carson Fulmer
Fulmer has only made five big league starts and thrown 35 innings but the early results have not been good with a 5.40 ERA and 1.54 HR/9 rate. Poor control has contributed to his struggle with a 13.0% walk rate. The Blue Jays are coming off a 14-run output last night and will look to continue the momentum at home against another young right-hander.
Josh Donaldson (FD-$4,100 / DK-$4,600) – Donaldson has gone deep in back-to-back games and posted a .391 wOBA at home versus righties last season.
Curtis Granderson (FD-$2,100 / DK-$3,200) – Granderson broke out of his early-season slump with two extra-base hits while batting leadoff yesterday. He put up a .343 wOBA and .255 ISO against righties last season.
Justin Smoak (FD-$3,600 / DK-$4,500) – Smoak only got a small piece of the action on Tuesday with a double, a couple runs and an RBI but remains a mainstay in the three-hole and posted a .359 wOBA and .266 ISO against right-handers last year.
Yangervis Solarte (FD-$2,800 / DK-$3,500) – Solarte continues to bat cleanup for the Jays and has registered at least one hit in four out of five games this season. It is only a matter of time before the value middle infielder starts to cash in with more runs and RBIs hitting in such a favorable spot.
Cardinals vs. Jhoulys Chacin
Chacin posted a 6.53 ERA outside of Petco Park in San Diego last season. This year in his first start that was actually in Petco, Chacin struggled, allowing four runs (two homers) over 3.1 innings. His second start will come in a more hitter-friendly venue (Miller Park) against a better offense (Cardinals). Give the Cardinals’ lefties the majority of the focus when stacking as Chacin allowed a .411 wOBA to lefties outside of San Diego last season.
Matt Carpenter (FD-$3,500 / DK-$3,700) – Carpenter posted a .391 wOBA and .269 ISO on the road versus righties last season and has gone 2-for-6 with a homer off Chacin in his career.
Dexter Fowler (FD-$2,200 / DK-$3,300) – Fowler broke out of his early-season slump with two hits including a leadoff homer on Tuesday. He put up a .368 wOBA and .243 ISO against righties last season.
Marcell Ozuna (FD-$3,500 / DK-$4,200) – It might be a weird stat to quote but Ozuna has hit 11 home runs in 33 games at Miller Park in his career including moonshot last night.
Kolton Wong (FD-$2,000 / DK-$2,900) – Wong can offer your Cardinals’ stack a little diversity and get you another left-handed bat against Chacin. Wong posted a .343 wOBA against righties last year and is 2-for-3 with a double against Chacin.
Contrarian Stack
Rockies vs. Clayton Richard
Richard has been destroyed by right-handed hitters over his career including a .377 wOBA and 1.46 HR/9 rate last season. Rockies hitters are not typically a high-owned stack on the road but with a short slate, they could be more popular than normal. That said, even though they are outside of Coors Field, they have had some success in their careers against Richard.
Nolan Arenado (FD-$4,500 / DK-$5,000) – Arenado does well against lefties regardless of the location with a .520 wOBA on the road against southpaws last season and a career .625 average with a three extra-base hits in 16 at-bats against Richard.
Trevor Story (FD-$2,600 / DK-$3,700) – Shortstop might be a tough position to fill on Wednesday’s slate but a reasonably priced Story against a lefty (career .376 road wOBA) is a good place to look.
Ian Desmond (FD-$3,300 / DK-$4,000) – Desmond has smacked two homers off Richard in his career in 26 at-bats with a .308 average.
Chris Iannetta (FD-$2,500 / DK-$3,500) – Much like Story at SS, Iannetta is one of the better options at catcher on DK with a reasonable salary and some good history against Richard with a .353 average, two doubles and two homers in 17 career at-bats.
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