Wednesday’s 11-game MLB DFS evening slate is one of those slates where you know who want to roster but that darn salary cap gets in the way of being able to make a reality when you plug in all of your guys and are over the limit by $4,000. There are a pair of high-priced ace pitchers to decide between and some value arms to navigate. There are also a bunch of prime hitting spots to consider on what could be a high-scoring night of DFS.
Be sure to sign up for our Premium Content so you don’t miss out on any of the content we have here at DailyOverlay.
Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Chris Sale (FD-$12,600 / DK-$13,000)
Sale is pitching on another level right now as he has dominated opponents over his last six starts with a 1.10 ERA and 42.9% strikeout rate. He comes in as a huge home favorite Wednesday against the Rangers who rank in the middle of the pack in most offensive categories against lefties over the last 30 days. Meanwhile, Sale has dominated Rangers hitters over his career allowing a minuscule .211 wOBA with a big 36.7% strikeout rate in 128 plate appearances. Jacob deGrom is also a fine option but Sale has been just too good recently to pass on in Cash games and GPPs if you can find some cheap stacks.
Value
Luke Weaver (FD-$6,600 / DK-$7,700)
Since I’m paying up for Sale, then I better recommend some discount pitchers to pair with him. While I do like Kenta Maeda against the Padres, we need to digger deeper for more savings with a pitcher like Luke Weaver. Weaver has pitched well in two of his last three starts (both on the road) allowing four runs over 13.2 innings with 16 strikeouts against the Giants and Brewers. He’ll be on the road again on Wednesday against the White Sox who have the highest strikeout rate (28.5%) against right-handed pitchers over the last 30 days while also ranking in the bottom five in wOBA (.289) and wRC+ (82) during that span. Weaver isn’t exactly safe but does offer some salary savings and some strikeout upside to pair with Sale on two-pitcher sites.
Darkhorse
Sonny Gray (FD-$7,300 / DK-$6,500)
I have some interest in both pitchers for tonight’s Yankees/Orioles matchup with Sonny Gray squaring off against Dylan Bundy. Bundy probably has more strikeout upside but also carries greater risk, so I’ll lean toward Gray who a road favorite and has pitched better away from home this season with a 4.07 ERA and .298 wOBA allowed with a 24.9% strikeout rate. He’ll face an Orioles offense that has the 5th highest strikeout rate (24.3%) against righties this season while also ranking in the bottom five in wOBA (.293) and wRC+ (83). Gray could be considered for Cash game lineups on two-pitcher sites if you must save additional salary off of Weaver to fit in key bats.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Rockies vs. Shelby Miller
I faded the opening game of the Diamondbacks/Rockies series at Coors Field which was the right call but it is hard to ignore the pitching matchup and weather conditions for Wednesday’s game. So, I’m all-in on Rockies and D’Backs hitters. There are a few values in there to use in a Cash game lineup with Sale but if you want a full-on game stack you’ll need to dip down to pitchers like Weaver, Gray and maybe even Dan Straily to make it work in GPPs. Shelby Miller will be making just his fourth starts since returning from Tommy John surgery. The first three didn’t good too well with a 9.00 ERA so don’t expect a game at Coors Field to help.
Charlie Blackmon (FD-$4,400 / DK-$5,400) – Blackmon has been swinging a pretty hot bat recently with three homers over his last six games.
Carlos Gonzalez (FD-$3,600 / DK-$4,300) – Gonzalez has a .445 wOBA and .323 ISO at home against righties this season and is 7-for-18 with three doubles and a homer off Miller in his career.
DJ LeMahieu (FD-$3,900 / DK-$4,300) – LeMahieu is batting .421 with a double and homer in 19 career at-bats against Miller.
Gerardo Parra (FD-$3,300 / DK-$3,900) – Parra brings some salary relief to the Rockies stack and has a .369 wOBA against righties this season.
Diamondbacks vs. German Marquez
Marquez has been brutal at home this season with a 7.93 ERA, .415 wOBA allowed and 1.93 HR/9. While lefties have done the most damage with a .465 wOBA, righties are still chiming in with a .359 wOBA of their own. The top of the Diamondbacks lineup has had a lot of success against Marquez in their career.
David Peralta (FD-$3,900 / DK-$5,200) – Peralta is batting .412 with three doubles and a homer off Marquez in 17 career at-bats.
AJ Pollock (FD-$4,100 / DK-$5,100) – Pollock is 4-for-7 with two extra-base hits against Marquez and homered last night in Colorado.
Paul Goldschmidt (FD-$4,800 / DK-$5,900) – Goldschmidt is hitting a whopping .533 with two doubles and three homers off Marquez in 15 career at-bats.
Jake Lamb (FD-$4,100 / DK-$4,700) – Lamb is batting .333 with a homer in 24 career at-bats against Marquez.
Contrarian Stack
Cardinals vs. Carlos Rodon
You might just want to call this a “value” stack since I don’t think it will be very “contrarian”. The Cardinals lit up the scoreboard last night with 14 runs and will look to keep the bats rolling against lefty Carlos Rodon. Rodon has allowed a career .342 wOBA and 1.36 HR/9 rate to righties and the Cardinals right-handed power is cheap, cheap, cheap!
Jedd Gyorko (FD-$2,900 / DK-$3,600) – Gyorko has a .446 wOBA and .296 ISO against southpaws this season.
Marcell Ozuna (FD-$2,800 / DK-$3,300) – Ozuna has a 46.7% hard-hit rate against lefties this season which could pair nicely with Rodon’s 54% fly ball rate to righties this year.
Jose Martinez (FD-$2,600 / DK-$3,900) – Martinez is heating up again with three hits in each of his last two games.
Paul DeJong (FD-$3,400 / DK-$3,900) – DeJong has hits in each of his first four games since returning from the DL while scoring seven runs.
Follow me on Twitter @Rotopilot
