While the “brunch” slate has more games than the night slate on Wednesday, the four-game night slate has a lot of things going for it including the two highest Vegas run totals and the two biggest Vegas favorites. With the small slate, today’s “On the Hill” article will be a free offering. Enjoy!
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Tyler Skaggs (FD-$9,300 / DK-$10,200)
Skaggs is a big home favorite against the White Sox on Wednesday night and has been pitching great since the beginning of June. Over his last seven starts, Skaggs has posted a 1.43 ERA and 24.3% strikeout rate. The White Sox have the second highest strikeout rate (25.9%) against southpaws this season while also ranking in the bottom 10 in wOBA (.297) and wRC+ (87). Skaggs is my pitcher of choice in Cash games on all sites.
Value
David Price (FD-$9,000 / DK-$9,500)
Price and the Red Sox traveling to Baltimore as a road favorite against the Orioles. The Orioles have the seventh lowest wOBA (.288) and wRC+ (80) against lefties over the last 30 days and that was mostly with Manny Machado in the lineup. Price tossed a complete game against the Orioles earlier this season allowing just two runs while striking out eight. In his career against the current collection of Orioles hitters, Price has allowed just a .294 wOBA with a 27.2% strikeout rate in 253 plate appearances. Keep an eye on the weather in Baltimore before considering Price as your #2 SP on two-pitcher sites in Cash games.
Darkhorse
James Shields (FD-$7,300 / DK-$6,000)
Shields actually hasn’t been horrible over his last five starts. If that is not a ringing endorsement, I don’t know what is. In his last five starts, he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of them only running into trouble against the Astros. Meanwhile, his strikeout rate has been on the rise. The matchup against the Angels isn’t ideal but you’re not going to find a better situation outside of the top two options on the slate. As you’ll see below the White Sox are my sneak good team of the night.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Athletics vs. Martin Perez
The A’s have scored 28 runs in the first two games of the series against the Rangers lefties in the heat of Texas and I see no reason they will slow down on Wednesday. Perez has been lit up by righties this season with a .467 wOBA and 2.73 HR/9. You could literally play any and every A’s hitter and I wouldn’t have a problem with it. That said, below are my top four plays.
Khris Davis (FD-$4,100 / DK-$5,300) – Davis is hotter than the Texas heat with four homers over his last three games.
Jed Lowrie (FD-$3,200 / DK-$4,000) – Lowrie broke out of his recent slump last night with three hits including a homer and has a .379 average with three doubles in 29 career at-bats against Perez.
Mark Canha (FD-$2,700 / DK-$3,600) – Canha delivered a home run last night and has crushed left-handed pitching this season with a .432 wOBA and .386 ISO.
Josh Phegley (FD-$2,200 / DK-$3,200) – Look for Phegley to draw the start behind the plate on Wednesday with his 5-for-13 mark including a pair of doubles off Perez in his career.
Rangers vs. Edwin Jackson
I am hesitant to stack up the Astros/Rockies game at Coors Field with two solid pitchers on the mound and the high price tags on most of the hitters in the game. So, I’ll focus most of my attention on both sides of the A’s/Rangers tilt. Jackson has pitched reasonably well through his five starts this season but with a xFIP (4.46) far exceeding his ERA (2.93) and a low strikeout rate 18.9% he could melt down in the heat of Texas on Wednesday.
Shin-soo Choo (FD-$3,300 / DK-$4,800) – Choo has a .411 wOBA and .244 ISO against righties this season.
Joey Gallo (FD-$2,600 / DK-$4,200) – Gallo went deep last night and has a .257 ISO at home against righties this season.
Rougned Odor (FD-$3,400 / DK-$4,300) – Odor has been hot since the All-Star break while batting second in the lineup with a .476 average including two doubles, a homer and three steals in five games.
Elvis Andrus (FD-$3,800 / DK-$3,800) – Andrus is riding a six-game hitting streak and has homered in back-to-back games.
Contrarian Stack
White Sox vs. Tyler Skaggs
Yes, Skaggs is my Cash game pitcher, but I think there is a decent chance that the White Sox get to him on Wednesday. Plus, he should be by far the highest owned pitcher on the slate so stacking against him can both elevate my team and knock down others. The White Sox haven’t been too bad against lefties recently and can throw some power-hitting righties at him.
Jose Abreu (FD-$3,300 / DK-$3,600) – Abreu has a .386 wOBA and .213 ISO on the road against lefties this season.
Avisail Garcia (FD-$2,800 / DK-$3,900) – Garcia has crushed lefties on the road this year with a .543 wOBA and .375 ISO.
Tim Anderson (FD-$2,800 / DK-$3,600) – Anderson moves to the leadoff spot against lefties and has a .352 wOBA and .327 ISO against southpaws on the road this season.
Matt Davidson (FD-$2,200 / DK-$3,100) – Davidson has a 50% hard hit rate over his last three games and a .457 wOBA and .368 ISO on the road against lefties this season.
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