Wednesday’s On the Hill write-up with focus on the nine-game MLB evening slate. I feel like I have some strong reads on the night slate with two probably obvious stacks but one contrarian stack that I have a hunch on and should be far off anyone’s radar. The pitching side is also pretty cut and dry in my opinion with a pair of high strikeout options leading the way. All of that said, I also thought I had a strong read on the Indians last night and that didn’t work out so well. Just goes to prove you just never really know even when you think you know when it comes to the MLB.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Trevor Bauer (FD-$10,200 / DK-$11,500)
Bauer has been missing a lot of bats recently with three straight double-digit strikeout efforts. He should generate more punchouts on Wednesday night when he faces the White Sox who have the third highest strikeout rate (25.5%) against righties over the last 30 days. Bauer has also had success against the White Sox batters in the past allowing a .239 wOBA with a 28.2% strikeout rate in 92 career plate appearances. Bauer is my likely Cash game pitcher on both one and two-pitcher sites.
Value
Nick Pivetta (FD-$8,000 / DK-$7,500)
While both my Value and Darkhorse options are viable options on two-pitcher sites, I prefer to use Pivetta due to his higher strikeout upside. Pivetta has recorded at least six strikeouts in five of his last six outings while also maintaining a 2.73 ERA during that stretch. He’ll face the Rockies who have a 25.3% strikeout rate on the road against righties with a bottom five wOBA (.273) and wRC+ (69) this season. Pivetta may have a little more risk than my Darkhorse option but that risk is offset by his higher strikeout potential which as me leaning toward Pivetta in both Cash and GPP lineups on two-pitcher sites.
Darkhorse
Luke Weaver (FD-$6,700 / DK-$7,700)
I expect Weaver to be more popular than Pivetta tonight but Weaver will only make my lineups in GPPs when pairing him with Pivetta on two-pitcher sites or by himself on one-pitcher sites when I want to pay up for some bats. Weaver gets a plus matchup pitching at home as a big favorite against the Padres who have the 6th highest strikeout rate (24.2%) against righties over the last 30 days while ranking in the bottom seven in wOBA (.289) and wRC+ (83) during that span.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Yankees vs. Erick Fedde
The Yankees are in a great spot on Wednesday playing at home with the wind blowing out to left field with young right-hander Erick Fedde on the hill for the Nationals. While the sample is extremely small for Fedde in the majors the results haven’t been good allowing a .518 wOBA and three homers in 44 plate appearances by righties and a .339 wOBA and a pair of homers in 55 plate appearances by lefties.
Aaron Judge (FD-$4,800 / DK-$5,500) – Judge should be the first hitter you lock into your lineup on Wednesday with his massive .485 wOBA and .430 ISO at home against righties during his career.
Didi Gregorius (FD-$3,800 / DK-$4,100) – Gregorius hit a pair of homers last night as he continues to rake at home against righties with a .399 wOBA and .337 ISO this season.
Brett Gardner (FD-$3,000 / DK-$4,400) – Gardner has a .374 wOBA at home against righties this season.
Greg Bird (FD-$3,400 / DK-$3,900) – Bird has a career .343 wOBA and .260 ISO at home against righties.
Cardinals vs. Eric Lauer
The Cardinals come in with the second highest implied run total on the slate after the Yankees so while there is nothing fancy about either of these stacks they are the top teams for a reason. The Cardinals will face lefty Eric Lauer who has struggled with his control and has allowed a wOBA over .400 to both sides of the plate this season but much more power from righties with a 1.67 HR/9 rate (3.55 on the road).
Thomas Pham (FD-$4,000 / DK-$4,600) – Pham is riding a seven-game hitting streak and has a .396 wOBA and .184 ISO against southpaws this season.
Jedd Gyorko (FD-$2,700 / DK-$3,400) – Gyorko went 2-for-2 with a homer off Lauer in their earlier meeting this season and has been terrorizing Padres pitching seen leaving the team with a .418 average and nine homers in 16 games.
Marcell Ozuna (FD-$3,900 / DK-$4,000) – Ozuna has a career .355 wOBA and .184 ISO against lefties and also went 2-for-2 with a homer off Lauer earlier this season.
Jose Martinez (FD-$4,400 / DK-$5,000) – Martinez has hit five homers over his last six games and has a .457 wOBA at home against lefties in his career.
Contrarian Stack
Tigers vs. Jose Berrios
I don’t expect anyone to be on the Tigers stack Wednesday night against Jose Berrios. However, Berrios has consistently been worse on the road so far in his career allowing a .345 wOBA and 1.62 HR/9. The Tigers have some familiarity with Berrios and a couple of them have had some good numbers against him.
Leonys Martin (FD-$3,000 / DK-$4,400) – Martin has five extra-base hits over his last nine games and a .389 wOBA and .244 ISO at home against righties this season.
Nick Castellanos (FD-$2,900 / DK-$4,000) – Castellanos is 5-for-10 with a homer off Berrios in his career.
Jeimer Candelario (FD-$3,000 / DK-$4,000) – Candelario has posted a solid .339 wOBA and .216 ISO against righties this season.
James McCann (FD-$2,000 / DK-$2,800) – McCann has crushed Berrios in his career going 5-for-11 with two doubles and a pair of long balls.
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