A couple of themes present themselves with my Pitchers and Stacks for Wednesday night’s 11-game MLB DFS slate. First, on the pitching side, there isn’t much to like so I’m taking a high-risk/high-reward approach to pitcher selection even with my “Ace” recommendation. Second, on the hitting side, we are “Going back to Cali, to Cali, to Cali, going back to Cali…”, yep, I think so.
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Let’s mow down the competition 3 Up and 3 Down…
3 Up
Ace
Robbie Ray (FD-$9,000 / DK-$10,000)
I expect Madison Bumgarner to be the uber chalk in Cash games as the only “safe” high-priced option on a miserable slate for pitching. MadBum did pitch better in his last outing but I still think that there are a couple more shaky outings before he is back to normal, plus I don’t like his strikeout upside against the Rockies. So, I’m going to do something I usually don’t recommend and that is to roster a pitcher just coming off a lengthy DL stint. Ray has the highest strikeout upside on the slate by far, even if he only manages to pitch five innings against the Marlins on Wednesday. He had a 36.8% strikeout rate in his first six starts this season and the Marlins have the 12th highest strikeout rate (23.1%) against lefties over the last 30 days while ranking in the bottom five in wOBA (.277) and wRC+ (74). No guts, no glory.
Value
Alex Wood (FD-$7,600 / DK-$8,200)
Alex Wood is another risky lefty on Wednesday’s slate that I’m going to roll the dice on. He is always a treat to get pulled early if his pitch count gets elevated but he has allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his last nine starts and will face a Cubs offense that has the 2nd highest strikeout rate (25.6%) against lefties over the last 30 days. Wood has also pitched fairly well against Cubs hitters in his career allowing no home runs and a .273 wOBA with a 22.6% strikeout rate in 53 plate appearances. Give him a look as your #2 SP on two-pitcher sites in both Cash games and GPPs.
Darkhorse
Zack Wheeler (FD-$7,700 / DK-$6,300)
The Darkhorse play is typically a cheap, high-risk/reward option and that is no different on Wednesday. Wheeler hasn’t been anything special this season with a 4.85 ERA but he could be in for some positive regression with a 4.15 xFIP. He has also seemed to gain a couple miles per hour on his fastball recently compared to his early season velocity which could partially explain his 15 strikeouts in 13 innings over his last two starts. Wheeler could also benefit from a pitcher-friendly umpire behind the plate who typically results in an increase in strikeouts and decrease in runs. On a slate, where you are forced to take some shots on the mound, Wheeler could provide an unexpected strong outing at a cheap price in GPPs.
3 Down
Top Stacks
Athletics vs. Mike Fiers
Looking to cash in on a Cali-themed trio of stacks on Wednesday’s slate. The A’s start it off on the road against Mike Fiers and the Tigers in Detroit. The A’s have scored 14 runs in the first two games of their series against the Tigers. Fiers has served up 16 homers this season with both sides of the plate exceeding a wOBA of .345 and 1.59 HR/9.
Khris Davis (FD-$4,200 / DK-$4,900) – Davis has a .367 wOBA and .295 ISO against righties this season.
Jed Lowrie (FD-$3,800 / DK-$4,300) – Lowrie has homered in both games of the series and has a .477 wOBA and .361 ISO on the road against righties this season.
Matt Olson (FD-$3,800 / DK-$4,400) – Olson pas posted a .396 wOBA and .313 ISO against righties on the road this year.
Dustin Fowler (FD-$2,700 / DK-$3,700) – Fowler has posted a .392 wOBA and .213 ISO on the road against righties this season.
Padres vs. Mike Minor
I’m either stubborn or a fool to continue to tout the Padres in the series against the Rangers in the heat of Texas. They have only managed seven runs in the first two games but I’m going back to them again on Wednesday against lefty Mike Minor. Minor has allowed 11 of his 12 homers (1.54 HR/9) to right-handed hitters this season. Might as well go all-in with a five-man Padres stack where you can.
Christian Villanueva (FD-$2,800 / DK-$4,000) – Villanueva who has a .481 wOBA and .479 ISO against lefties this season.
Hunter Renfroe (FD-$2,900 / DK-$3,900) – Renfroe has seven hits over his last four games including two doubles and a homer and has a career .432 wOBA and .341 ISO against lefties.
Wil Myers (FD-$2,800 / DK-$4,500) – Myers produced a pair of hits including a double yesterday as he tries to get back in a groove after missing significant time this season.
Manuel Margot (FD-$2,900 / DK-$3,800) – Margot went hitless yesterday snapping a six-game hitting streak. Look for him to start a new streak tonight.
Jose Pirela (FD-$2,400 / DK-$3,400) – Pirela is cheap and has a .330 wOBA against lefties this season.
Contrarian Stack
Angels vs. Rick Porcello
I don’t expect many people to roster an Angels stack against Porcello but a few of the Angels hitters have had a lot of success against him during their career and get a favorable park adjustment playing at Fenway. You can also consider Andrelton Simmons with his 5-for-17 mark including a homer off Porcello if you need a SS to fill out a lineup.
Mike Trout (FD-$5,100 / DK-$5,900) – Trout is batting .281 with a pair of homers off Porcello in 32 career at-bats and is never a bad play.
Kole Calhoun (FD-$2,500 / DK-$3,000) – Calhoun has a .318 average with a pair of homers off Porcello in 22 career at-bats and is dirt cheap.
Ian Kinsler (FD-$2,900 / DK-$3,600) – Kinsler is batting .500 in 22 career at-bats against Porcello with three steals.
Albert Pujols (FD-$3,000 / DK-$3,600) – Pujols has a .345 average with one long ball in 29 career at-bats against Porcello.
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