Well hello there! It’s that time again for Daily Overlay to bring you a full week of MLB DFS coverage.
We start with today’s The Stack and you can read it Wednesday and Friday this week. On Tuesdays and Thursdays, we will continue to feature DRAFT app strategy and rankings. Hope you enjoy the added content this summer and hope to have some things work out with DRAFT moving forward.
I wish today was a DRAFT article because something happened Sunday night that creates a huge advantage if you draft a bunch of teams early. I’ll let you know what I am talking about in Tuesday’s DRAFT Strat write-up, so be sure to check that out.
That’s what we call a tease.
Speaking of teases, we have a pitcher on this slate that I am going to continue to target for a major blowup. But I’ll get into that shortly.
Tonight we have 9 games on Draftkings (there are 10 total, but the make up game between the Nationals and Yankees is not on the DK main slate. It is on DRAFT ;)).
Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer are the top-2 pitchers on the slate. We get Jacob deGrom, but he’s pitching in Coors and his price doesn’t reflect that. Oh, and we have Coors!
Let’s get after it and may the Force be with you!
PITTSBURGH PIRATES
1. Starling Marte
2. Gregory Polanco
3. Austin Meadows
4. Corey Dickerson
5. Colin Moran
6. Francisco Cervelli
Analysis: I am stacking up the Pirates every which way I can tonight against Jhoulys Chacin. Maybe Chacin will be chalk and we can leverage the field here, but he’s well overdue for a blow up. I have been targeting lefties against Chacin all year long and he owes me some money tonight. We can’t play this entire stack in one lineup, nor can you play all of the outfielders and stack this game. Look for Polanco or Meadows to sit here, hence why I included 6 players instead of 5. Cervelli is the RH bat that leads this team in hitting against righties. Cervelli has a .407 wOBA,, a .262 ISO and a 38% hard contact rate. Chacin has been tough on RH pitching, but he’s allowing 40% hard contact. But why I am targeting lefties against Chacin – 38% hard contact rate allowed and a 5.50 xFIP compared to a 2.95 ERA.
HOUSTON ASTROS
1. George Springer
2. Jose Altuve
3. Carlos Correa
4. Alex Bregman
Analysis: The Astros return home to continue their 11-game winning streak. But they are returning home, where they don’t score as many runs. I say that narrative has to change at some point this season, so why not against the Rays in a bullpen game? If the Astros weren’t hot right now, I wouldn’t be touching them at home tonight, but since they have been swinging sticks really well, I will hop on this train until they give me a reason to get off. The Astros start with Ryne Stanek and should see the likes of Yarborough and some other bullpen guys. I don’t know how long the Rays can continue this strategy before their bullpen arms get tired, so I am going to hope the Stros’ catch them with some tired arms. Not that he will pitch long, but Stanek has been gifting RH bats with 48% hard contact and a 1.69 HR/9. Just because it’s a bullpen game doesn’t mean the Astros could tag the Rays with 10 run in the first.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
1. Yasmani Grandal
2. Joc Pederson
3. Cody Bellinger
4. Max Muncy
Analysis: Welcome to Tyler Chatwood sucks day! Chatwood is an awful pitcher against left-handed bats, so load up on the guys listed above. Against LH bats this season, Chatwood has allowed a .372 wOBA, a 33% hard contact rate, a 1.96 WHIP and a 5.76 xFIP. The only positive thing to note about Chatwood is that he doesn’t give up a lot of home runs. Hopefully that changes today against the Dodgers, who are second in the league in offense against RH pitching. Many of the Dodgers have some solid BvP against him too as Grandal has a double, triple and a home run with 6 total hits in 11 ABs. Pederson is 5-for-11 with a home run and 4 walks, something I love to see with strong BvP. Bellinger has been struggling some, but he’s still elite against RH pitching and Max Muncy has been hot for awhile, too. I wish the wind were blowing out here, but it’s not, but that doesn’t mean the Dodgers’ can’t have success.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
1. Andrew McCutchen
2. Buster Posey
3. Nick Hundley
4. Mac Williamson
Analysis: I am sad to see Evan Longoria no longer available in this stack, but we still have three solid options you can use as a late-night hammer. The Giants are 12th in the majors in hitting against southpaws, without Longo. But we get four RH bats that can really make life difficult for southpaws. Big Mac leads the team in hitting against lefties with a .432 wOBA, .238 ISO and a 16% walk rate. Hundley is just behind him with a .408 wOBA and .327 ISO. Posey sports a .377 wOBA, .205 ISO and 47% hard contact rate whiel McCutchen owns a .357 wOBA, .209 ISO and a 48% hard contact rate. Caleb Smith has been a good rookie pitcher, but he’s coming off time away from the team, so you have to wonder if his head will be right for this game. McCutchen has a home run off Smith already.
