Welcome to the final weekend of baseball before the lull known as the All-Star Break rears its ugly head.
I personally only watch about 30 minutes to an hour of the home run derby and that’s about it for me for baseball that week. I don’t care about the exhibition game on Tuesday or who wins home field advantage because that’s about the dumbest rule in baseball.
Anyhow, I hope to end strong this week and will be back at it on Tuesday, July 19 to begin the “second half” of the 2016 baseball season.
Tonight might be one of the crazier slates on tap since Opening Day.
We have a game at Coors. Rogers Centre (with Mike Pelfrey on the mound mind you), Fenway and the Ballpark in Arlington. But we also have the following aces on the mound:
Jake Arrieta, Chris Sale, Chris Archer, Cole Hamels, Stephen Strasburg, Noah Syndergaard, Corey Kluber and Jose Fernandez.
All we are missing are Madison Bumgarner, Max Scherzer, David Price and Clayton Kershaw, and this would be one hell of a slate, more than it already is.
I can’t help but notice right off the bat that Sale and Fernandez will likely have the highest ownerships based on matchups, Strasburg and Syndergaard will have the second most, perhaps Arrieta, though his struggles may have people off of him. Kluber will be right there and then I expect Archer and Hamels to be way down the list, especially Archer who has struggled on the road and faces the top offense in baseball vs. RH pitching.
The chalk will go to the Blue Jays though, not Coors Field, as the Jays face Mike Pelfrey, the gelatin arm of the night. The Rockies have a tougher matchup on paper while the Phillies, well, they are the Phillies and couldn’t even get to Chad Bettis last night (Jon Gray sleeper alert!)
Ok, enough talking, good luck tonight and enjoy the break. Also, don’t forget to check out dailybaseballdata.com for all of today’s BvP stats.
Kris Bryant – 3B/OF – Cubs – vs. Francisco Liriano
BvP: 4-for-9, 2 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB
Analysis: Jake Arrieta has been a BvP gem versus the Pirates, but I am not recommending him tonight with so many aces on the hill. I can’t bring myself to play him over Sale and Fernandez with his recent struggles. If he’s not right, BvP won’t matter. Oh yea, this is Kris Bryant’s analysis. What do you need me to tell you? He crushes lefties and Liriano has been a walk machine this season along with a depleted K/9 rate. He’s a mess and Bryant has 15 hits in his last 10 games.
David Ortiz – 1B – Red Sox – vs. Chris Archer
BvP: 12-for-31, 4 2B, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 4 BB
Analysis: I mean 15 RBIs against 1 guy in 31 ABs is ridiculous. Archer has been very unlucky this season and has an elite K/9 rate, but Archer has an awful 6.66 ERA on the road this season. He’s been lit up by the Sox in 2 starts in 2016, giving up 10 ER in 10 IP. Ortiz has a superb home batting average of .373 and has 12 hits in his past 10 games. Ortiz is an RBI machine for the Red Sox with 69 already this season and is making a strong case for AL MVP. Get him in your lineup despite the cost.
Troy Tulowitzki – SS – vs. Mike Pelfrey
Tulowitzki BvP: 7-for-20, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 2 SB
Analysis: Tulo makes the list again this week. After a dud on Wednesday against Ian Kennedy, Tulo is up against one of the worst pitchers in baseball tonight at home. Pelfrey owns a .368 wOBA vs. RH bats this season and allows 1.49 HR/9. Tulo still has a hot bat and I bet his ownership shoots down for tournaments after people were burned by him Wednesday. Pelfrey has a 5.25 SIERA and an ERA near 5, so he’s down to let the balls fly!
Brian Dozier – 2B – Twins – vs. Cole Hamels
BvP: 3-for-7, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 RBI, 1 BB
Analysis: I am probably one of the few Ranger fans that believes Cole Hamels has been a disappointment and is a bit overrated. The Ballpark in Arlington is doing him no favors as his ERA is nearly 2 runs higher at home than on the road. The Twins just lit up the Rangers’ ace recently and now they get to face him in the hot, humid Texas weather. Dozier is an elite bat against lefties and with the matchup and elevated price on Draftkings, is likely an underrated and underowned player in tournaments.
Adrian Gonzalez – 1B – Dodgers – vs. Andrew Cashner
BvP: 11-for-32, 1 2B, 4 HR, 6 RBI, 5 BB
Analysis: Adrian Gonzalez has been an offensive disappointment this season, but I am willing to bet there is still gas in the tank and he could be heating up with 5 hits in his past 2 games. You are going to need some cheaper bats tonight with all of the aces out there, and Gonzalez gives you some salary relief. Cashner is a reverse-splits pitcher in his career, but Gonzalez has him figured out with those 4 long balls and 5 walks. It could be a perfect storm for Gonzalez to get some hits and begin a heater before the break.
Justin Upton – OF and James McCann – C – Tigers – vs. J.A. Happ
Upton BvP: 4-for-6, 1 3B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB, 1 SB
McCann BvP: 3-for-6, 1 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBI
Analysis: I know i have mentioned my “hatred’ for J.A. Happ. He’s pitched better than he has in the past, but he is still a freaking gas can. I am surprised by some of the Tigers’ prices on DK, so they could be an underrated offense to target tonight. Justin Upton hasn’t been his usual lefty terrorizer, but he has been able to pummel Happ so far in 6 ABs. At $2300 on DK in a favorable hitter’s park against a weak pitcher, I will gladly take Upton in every single lineup tonight. That kind of upside and caliber of player is too cheap to pass up. As for McCann, well he’s been a lefty killer in his career and should draw the start tonight as the backstop. He’s a solid salary relief player that can park one in the bleachers easily.
Lastly, here’s tonight’s BvP lineup.
Analysis: I love Jon Gray tonight. He’s been rocky, but he’s been unlucky and plays half of his games at Coors. Tonight he draws the Phillies, one of the worst offenses on the board. Jose Fernandez is my favorite pitcher of the slate, facing the Reds at home. Byron Buxton and Ezequiel Carrera are my two off-the-board plays and are paired with other members of their teams for two mini stacks.