Welcome back to the Stack!
Today is a very odd day for MLB DFS. Not only are there day games on a Wednesday, but the day games have all of the studs and two of the top offenses. Fitting it all in is going to be hard (that’s what she said).
Thor, Severino, Kluber, and Keuchel are the top options, but Alex Wood, Aaron Nola and Danny Duffy (maybe) are all decent to above average pitchers. Matt Boyd is on this slate, but he is facing the Royals, who can’t hit lefties. Boyd might be the value play that fits in all the bats you want with the top pitcher you want.
As for today’s Stack article, we are going to take a look at 2 stacks in the early and 2 stacks in the late slate. All stats you read in the analyses are from the past two seasons (2016-17). The Stack will continue to be a freebie through the rest of this week (and maybe one day next week if we are nice). After that, you will have to become a premium subscriber to see the full stack article.
As for the premise of the Stack – it’s almost self-explanatory. I pick some of the best stacks from the slate based on starting pitchers and their salaries, matchups and some advanced stats.
If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to leave them below, otherwise, let’s roll. And may the force be with you!
NEW YORK YANKEES
1. Giancarlo Stanton – $5,400
2. Aaron Judge – $5,200
3. Gary Sanchez – $4,800
4. Neil Walker – $3,300
5. Brandon Drury – $3,600
Total Cost – $25,300
Percentage of Salary Cap – 51%
2018 Combined Home Runs – 3
Justification – As you can see, the Yankees aren’t exactly lighting up the world. However, they have not played in Yankee Stadium much. Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez are shooting blanks at this point of the 2018 season. As long as the weather holds up, this full five-man stack against lefty Blake Snell, in Yankee Stadium, will be one of the top stacks of the early slate in pricing and ownership. But rightfully so, Snell allows a 32% hard contact rate and a .324 wOBA to RH bats, which is actually pretty solid. But this is the Yankees we are talking about. A cure for Sanchez’s ill should be Snell, who he is 3-for-8 off of with 2 home runs. Stanton is Stanton and you are likely well aware of my take on Stanton vs. lefties (Lock City, yo). Judge is the reverse splits guy, but he still crushes lefties – .371 wOBA, ,234 ISO, 133 wRC+, and Yankee Stadium. Walker is one of my favorite value plays with a .351 wOBA and .190 ISO against lefties. Drury should crack the lineup, but might be toward the bottom of the order where you can wrap around. WIll I use all 5 in a stack tomorrow? Probably not, but a mix and mash of these guys should be on the winning tournament lineups.
CLEVELAND INDIANS
1. Jose Ramirez – $4,400
2. Edwin Encarnacion – $4,500
3. Brandon Guyer – $2,700
Total Cost – $12,600
Percentage of Salary Cap – 25%
2018 Combined Home Runs – 3
Justification – It’s going to be tough to stack against the stud pitchers on this slate, and the Royals don’t really offer much for stacking against a lefty. So after the Yankees and Astros take ownership, I think the most overlooked stack will be the Indians against Tyler Skaggs. You can get E5, Jose Ramirez, Brandon Guyer and a punt catcher if you wish. I don’t see any reason why Brandon Guyer shouldn’t be in this lineup. He’s a platoon guy with a .377 wOBA against lefties. Guyer also has some BvP against Skaggs – 4-for-5 with 2 HRs. E5 and Ramirez each have wOBAs of .370 or higher with +.200 ISOs. Skaggs is a decent lefty arm, but does have a .337 wOBA, 34% hard contact and a 1.34 HR/9 against RH bats.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
1. Eric Thames – $3,900
2. Travis Shaw – $4,000
3. Christian Yelich – $4,600
Total Cost – $12,500
Percentage of Salary Cap – 25%
2018 Combined Home Runs – 2
Justification – The Brewers are off to a hot start and have returned home this week to take on the Cardinals. Picking on Carlos Martinez might seem like a death wish, but there’s one thing that Martinez has been prone to and that is lefty bats. He’s great against RH bats, but lefties give him trouble, especially on the road. This matchup does not fair well for Martinez in Miller Park, one of the top hitters parks for left-handed bats. Thames is the stud value play on this slate, in my opinion. He’s sub $4K and hits in the middle of a loaded lineup. He has a .390 wOBA against RH arms to go along with a .286 ISO and 43% hard contact rate. Yelich and Shaw each had .350 wOBAs or great as well.
COLORADO ROCKIES
1. Nolan Arenado – $5,000
2. Trevor Story – $3,700
3. Charlie Blackmon – $5,300
Total Cost – $14,000
Percentage of Salary Cap – 28%
2018 Combined Home Runs – 4
Justification – The late night hammer. Not only do the Rockies sport the top pitcher on the slate, in my book, they also have one of the better stacking options. Arenado, Story and Blackmon (yes, he smashes southpaws) are the top batters against left-handed pitching on this team. Arenado stands out the most for me. He’s Giancarlo level for me against lefties. His numbers prove his dominance against them – .442 wOBA, .325 ISO and 37% hard contact rate. Story sports a .415 wOBA and a .335 ISO while Blackmon has a .387 wOBA and a .178 ISO. Arenado also has the BvP against lefty Clayton Richard – 10-for-16, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 5 RBI and 2 BBs. Story has two extra-base hits, including a home run, in a handful of ABs. Blackmon is hitting .308 against Richard, too. Against RH bats, Richard has allowed a .369 wOBA and a 1.24 HR/9.
