The summer is quickly coming to an end for this ol’ teacher.
I move into a new position soon and have just a couple of weeks left before I officially return to work.
I won’t be in the classroom this year, and instead move into another facet of special education.
I’ll wear many hats and I’ll be plenty busy. It’s an exciting time to be starting something new. I’ll have to be flexible and adapt to different situations.
I guess it will be similar to the way you play MLB DFS each season.
You start with a strategy, make selections based on certain situations, decide on an optimal bankroll management budget, etc.
But with the MLB season, things change, and you adapt.
Playing the entire MLB season the same way sets you up for failure. Hot and cold streaks continue, positive and negative regression come into play, teams fighting for the playoffs tighten up the ranks, injuries, call ups, weather, etc. It all changes. So you have to make the necessary adjustments to optimize your lineup construction. I’ve had to do it every year.
The start of the season was a struggle. I felt like I was chasing all the time. Arcade Mode came out and I started to win and win and win some more. I made up my losses and turned that into a big profit.
So I started playing a lot more Arcade Mode on DraftKings and less of the classic style, and I started losing, and losing and losing.
So I stopped playing much Arcade Mode and went back to classic style and started winning again. The strategies for both formats are different, but the thought process isn’t. You have to give your teams as much upside as possible in tournaments.
I’ve briefly talked about change above. I think it’s always a good thing to consider.
But one thing that shouldn’t change to be successful is attitude. You have to have the right attitude to play DFS and profit. Feeling down and frustrated isn’t going to get you very far. You have to be able to have fun, shrug off the bad nights and stay fresh. It’s easier said than done, but I’ve been there. I always have to remind myself to have fun. Because this is fun, even when you lose. You get to build a team of your own with your own players like it’s your own team on that field. It’s fun to draft those players each night. And of course it’s great to win, but overall, it has to stay fun.
If it’s not fun, take a day or two off, reset your strategy, test it out in some free contests and see what happens. See how you feel at the end of the night, make your tweaks and roll it out in some paid contests.
We have 12 games tonight and a slew of solid to great pitching options to choose from. We have games in Texas and Arizona and a lot of pitcher-friendly ballparks, too.
Good luck everyone, sorry for the lecture. Let’s get to today’s rankings by position, my favorite stacks and today’s official picks.
Catcher
- Welington Castillo
- Alex Avila
- Russell Martin
- J.T. Realmuto
- Salvador Perez
First Base
- Miguel Cabrera
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Joey Votto
- Mike Napoli
- Matt Carpenter
Second Base
- Brian Dozier
- Jonathan Schoop
- Ian Kinsler
- Rougned Odor
- Joe Panik
Third Base
- Adrian Beltre
- Manny Machado
- Miguel Sano
- Jake Lamb
- Wilmer Flores
Shortstop
- Corey Seager
- Francisco Lindor
- Zack Cozart
- Paul deJong
- Marcus Semien
Outfield
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Cody Bellinger
- Yoenis Cespedes
- Khris Davis
- Nelson Cruz
Pitchers
- Jacob deGrom
- Justin Verlander
- Brad Peacock
- Zack Greinke
- Kevin Gausman
Stacks
- Miami Marlins
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Houston Astros
- Cleveland Indians
- Colorado Rockies
Giancarlo Stanton – OF – Miami Marlins – $5,500
Analysis: You know me, this is going to be my No. 1 play on the board. Giancarlo Stanton vs. a lefty. That lefty is Martin Perez, who pitches for the Rangers, who are at home where it’s freaking hot! Stanton is a lefty masher and he’s been killing them this season and it hasn’t even gotten good for him yet. Against lefties in 2017, Stanton has a .399 wOBA, a .370 ISO and a 35% hard contact rate. His BABIP against lefties is .231. That’s insane! As for Perez, lefties own a .364 wOBA and a 37% hard contact rate. This is Texas, who has one of the worst bullpens in the league, too. Marlins are probably the chalk of the night.
Yoenis Cespedes – OF – New York Mets – $3,600
Analysis: For me, this is the value play of the day. You get a big-time bopper at this price AND he’s facing a lefty? I don’t really care about the ballpark, Cespedes has power that supersedes any ballpark factor. Surprisingly, Cespedes hasn’t faced Padres’ southpaw Clayton Richard in his career. But against lefties this season, Yoenis has a .378 wOBA, a .347 ISO and a 38% hard contact rate. Against RH bats this season, Richard has allowed a whopping .390 wOBA and a 37% hard contact rate.
Adrian Beltre – 3B – Texas Rangers – $4,000
Analysis: There are a ton of 3B to like on this slate, but Beltre is my absolute favorite. The Rangers have been pretty bad against lefties this season. Overall, they are flooded with lefty bats, but this team has a couple of lefty mashers (more on that later). Beltre hasn’t quite found his groove against lefties this season, but he is long overdue. Against lefties in 2017, Beltre owns a .359 wOBA and a 38% hard contact rate. But the number that sticks out the most is that Beltre has ZERO home runs against a southpaw this season. For me, this is a lot like Miggy a few weeks back before the ASG break – no homers vs. lefties and facing a weak lefty. Beltre and the Rangers are taking on Adam Conley in the Texas heat. Sorry Conley, your .346 wOBA and 37% hard contact rate against RH bats this season may not fair well today.
