It’s no joke, it’s already April 2019.
What is a joke?
Draftkings pitcher pricing to start the season.
Here’s a list of prices over the past four days for guys who had no business being price up.
Friday
Freddy Peralta – $9,100
Ross Stripling – $9,500
Saturday
Kenta Maeda – $10,100
Brandon Woodruff – $7,900
Eduardo Rodriguez – $9,000
Sunday
J.A. Happ – $10,100
Jon Gray – $9,200
Chris Paddack – $9,700
Walker Buehler – $10,100
I don’t buy these prices for these pitchers. Many have had limited success or none at all at the major league level. Some are on a team that routinely limits starters, some are coming off injury in their first games back and then there’s J.A. Happ.
If this continues, I will be playing the majority of my action over to FanDuel, where the pricing, salary cap scoring and lack of a second starting pitcher is far more attractive anyway.
But it is continuing, at least for Monday:
Monday
Matt Strahm – $9,200
Julio Urias – $8,700
Steven Matz – $8,300
Sean Reid-Foley – $8,100
Brad Peacock – $7,900
All of these guys are overpriced, especially Strahm. Preseason hyped has these prices juiced. I am all for competition and tight pricing, but this is getting a bit ridiculous. The upside in these guys is being siphoned off from the beginning. Sorry for the rant, it just drives me nuts.
Anyway, we are into our first full week of baseball and it’s damn good to have it back.
Tonight we have 9 games on the main slate, so let’s get to it!
PITCHERS
Caleb Smith – Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets – $7,600
Analysis: The New York Mets are a different looking team than in years past. They have added some stylish veterans (Ramos, Lowrie and Cano) and have added a stud power bat in Pete Alonso. So it remains to be seen how well this offense will function and if it can be consistent. It’s put up some numbers against the Nats to start things out, but now they hit the road to where offenses go to die – Marlins Park. Smith was stellar at home last season, compiling a 3.13 ERA compared to a 5.12 ERA on the road. Smith owned a 10.07 K/9 against RH bats in 2018 and a 10.71 K/9 against lefties. At this price, Smith has upside inside his home field.
Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels – $6,900
Analysis: Yes, the King is no longer the king, but the Angels are still a turd of an offense. Outside of Mike Trout having Hernandez’s number over the years, the Angels are just not that good at baseball. Hernandez isn’t someone I would consider for cash, but as a punt option in tournaments, because let’s face it, he’s still not very good either (15.95 ERA in spring training, also 0-2 with 12 ER allowed vs. Angels last season).
HITTERS – Who are we going to pair with the Astros today?
Justin Turner – 3B – Los Angeles Dodgers – $4,200
Analysis: Turner and the Dodgers are off to a hot start offensively and tonight should be no different as they take on the lowly San Francisco Giants. I really like the lefties for the Dodgers as sneaky tournament plays because most will assume Muncy and Bellinger don’t hit southpaws (Drew Pomeranz is a lefty) well, but that’s just not true. They are both expensive, so in finding some value, Turner is a lefty masher that fits right in with some of the Astros you may want to pay up for on this slate. Turner owned a .377 wOBA, 42% hard contact and a .187 ISO against lefties last season.
Chris Taylor – 2B/SS – Los Angeles Dodgers – $4,100
Analysis: I didn’t mention this for Turner, but Pomeranz was dreadful in limited action last season against RH bats (.401 wOBA). Pomeranz has been a good pitcher in the past, so time will tell if he can rebound this season. If Derek Holland can be the Giants’ best pitcher in 2018, ANYONE can. But in the past 2 seasons against righties, Pomeranz still owns a 4.27 xFIP and I’ll take the red hot Dodgers against a pitcher still trying to get back into the routine. As for Taylor, he sported a .339 wOBA and .188 ISO against RH bats in 2018.
Kike Hernandez – 2B – Los Angeles Dodgers – $4,000
Analysis: Remember when Kike was $200 on FanDuel a couple of seasons ago? Anyway, he’s not as cheap I would like him to be, but he’s the definition of a platoon guy against lefties, sporting a .349 wOBA and .243 ISO against southpaws in 2018. You just play him.
Jurickson Profar – 2B – Oakland A’s – $3,600
Analysis: Get ready, I told you I will be going down with the ship with Profar. The A’s are struggling offensively out of the gate, but Oakland Coliseum isn’t exactly a hitter’s park. I like the A’s as a really low-owned tournament stack to leverage the ownership that starter David Price will likely get as the “top” ace on the mound tonight. I don’t like Price’s price (ha…..ha). Therefore, I would prefer to use the cheap A’s bats and pair them with the Astros. Canha, Piscotty, Khris Davis, Chad Pinder, Ramon Laureano, Nick Hundley and Josh Phegley are all solid against lefty pitchers. We will just have to wait for the lineup to see who makes the cut. Profar should be out there and I’ll take his .341 wOBA and .180 ISO from 2018.
Justin Bour – 1B – Los Angeles Angels – $4,000
Analysis: I may like Felix some, but I also love Bour, who owes me some money after this weekend. In 2018, Bour owned a .349 wOBA, .221 ISO and 40% hard contact rate against RH bats. Against lefties last season, Hernandez gave up a .353 wOBA and 41% hard contact. The Angels also get a slight bump in ballpark going to Seattle from the Coliseum.
Jay Bruce – Seattle Mariners – $4,000
Analysis: The Seattle offense is bumping right now and I’ll continue to ride that wave with their lefties tonight as they take on the Angels and starter Chris Stratton. Bruce has swung a hot back in the spring and has since carried it over into the start of the regular season, clubbing home runs in back-to-back days. Can he make it a third? If Christian Yelich can do it in four straight, Bruce can do it in three, right? Maybe not, but he does get a favorable matchup in Stratton, who is tough on RH bats, but is soft against lefties. In 2018, Stratton owned a .357 wOBA, 38% hard contact rate and 1.18 HR/9 to lefties.
