A Thursday evening slate with more than 5 games?
Matt Strahm priced at $9,900 (FanDuel) on the road in Coors?
Matt Boyd the highest-priced pitcher on FanDuel?
Will Homer Bailey make the Value Index?
These are rhetorial questions, well maybe, except the last one, but more on that later.
Thursday brings us an actual decent slate worth playing, instead of 4-5 games, we have 9, and lots of stud pitchers to pick from, and of course, Coors.
Before we get to today’s selections, here’s the list of the top pitcher and their xFIPs against both sides of the plate.
PITCHER xFIP vs. LH
1. Tyler Skaggs – 5.05
2. Jack Flaherty – 5.05
3. Matt Strahm – 5.01
4. Gabriel Ynoa – 4.89
5. Ivan Nova – 4.74
6. Clayton Kershaw – 4.69
7. Jon Gray – 4.59
PITCHER xFIP vs. RH
1. Erick Fedde – 5.52
2. Adrian Sampson – 5.22
3. J.A. Happ – 4.86
4. Homer Bailey – 4.65
5. Ivan Nova – 4.51
6. Jon Lester – 4.34
7. Tyler Skaggs – 4.33
Tyler Skaggs making both lists is shocking, perhaps the Rays are very sneaky today after bailing on everyone Wednesday?
Now, let’s get into today’s slate.
PITCHERS
Marcus Stroman – at Baltimore Orioles – $7,200
Analysis: Two pitchers making the list again today. One of them, Stroman, continues to suck me in, the other? Well, hell must be covered in ice. But Stroman draws the hapless Orioles, who are only really worthwhile against lefty pitchers (see Wednesday’s slate). The Orioles are 26th in team wOBA against RH pitching with a lowly ISO of .170, striking out 24.9% of the time. Stroman started the year strong and has been back to his Stroman ways. He’s striking out lefties at a 6.51 K/9 and righties at a 7.71 K/9. These numbers seem low, but he gets a bump against a strikeout heavy team.
Homer Bailey – vs. Detroit Tigers – $6,700
Analysis: Oh boy, this has to go wrong if I am recommending Homer Bailey. The thing is, it’s FanDuel and we only get tagged for ER. Much like the Boston pitcher the other day, Bailey can give up 3-4 runs but strikeout 6-7 and you are still in good shape with all of the bats you can load up on. Bailey hasn’t been as bad this year. He’s been getting popped by RH bats, but he’s also been rather unlucky (6.59 ERA, 4.65 xFIP, .379 BABIP). The Tigers are RH heavy, but Bailey has some decent BvP against current Tigers’ batters in limited samples. Overall, current Tigers who have faced Bailey are 7-for-34 with 1 HR and 1 RBI, and a .206 BA with no other extra-base hits. The Tigers against RH pitching are worse than the Orioles at 29th in team wOBA with a .160 ISO and 25.8% K-rate. Bailey is whiffing lefties at a 8.35 K/9 and righties at a 7.85 K/9. So Bailey has better numbers than Stroman and is facing a worse team. So if you need that $500, you can semi-feel comfortable swapping to Homer.
