The saga of Games of Thrones is over. No spoilers here, but know that today is a sad day for this super fan.
It came. I saw. We conquered.
RIP GOT. You will be missed.
Now that I am coming out of my hole from the GOT finale, because I was legit sad the past two days, I am ready to tackle the Index this week.
Today we have a huge 11-game slate with lots of stud pitching, a few solid value plays, and lots of offenses to target. I promise I won’t talk anymore Game of Thrones the rest of this year, so baseball time it is!
Also another reminder that pricing for players comes from FanDuel. Let’s get it on!
Jon Gray – at Pittsburgh Pirates – $7,900
Analysis: Gray stands out as the clear value pitcher on tonight’s slate. He gets away from Coors, a big ballpark boost for pitchers and a lowly offense that doesn’t hit RH pitching well (19th wOBA overall) and does not have a lot of power. They don’t strike out a ton either, but if Gray gets a QS, a few strikeouts and a win, he will more than pay off his price tag tonight. There are a lot of high-end pitching options worthy of your rosters tonight and Daniel Norris is in a great spot against Miami (very low strikeout potential though), but Gray has the upside to really make your lineups pop.
Cameron Maybin – OF – New York Yankees – $2,600
Analysis: With D.J. LeMahieu exiting the fold Tuesday night, I would like to think Maybin’s spot in the lineup tonight will be more secure. The Yankees are the top offense on the slate taking on the gas can that is Dan Straily, but most of them are priced up. Maybin is a way to grab a cheap piece against Dan the Donut Hole, who is allowing a .478 wOBA to RH bats this season to go along with a 3.60 HR/9. Maybin is a former big time prospect who has shown flashes in his career. In limited time with the Yankees this season, Maybin owns a .380 wOBA, .156 ISO and a 139 wRC+ against RH pitching.
Brendan Rodgers – 2B – Colorado Rockies – $2,200
Analysis: Rodgers gets called up, gets one hit in 8 ABs and can’t crack the lineup for two straight days. I mean, he’s bound to make it back in sometime, but why call him up if you can’t let him go through some growing pains. Look at what Vlad Guerrero Jr. did and now he’s raking. Just let the damn guy play and figure it out upstairs. Anyway, the guy has tons of upside and he’s $2,200 facing Jordan Lyles who owns a 3.80 xFIP with a 0.95 ERA against RH pitching this season. He’s normally a reverse-splits pitcher, he’s just been lucky against righties all season long. The regression is going to come. Hopefully, Rodgers can crack the lineup tonight and pay off his low low salary.
Vlad Guerrero, Jr. – 3B – Toronto Blue Jays – $2,900
Analysis: Speaking of the man, the Man Beast is way too cheap tonight against Rick Porcello in the hitter friendly Rodgers Centre. Toronto takes on Rick Porcello, but he hasn’t been Rick Porcello this season. Against righties, Porcello has allowed a 1.80 HR/9 and owns a .259 BABIP. Against righties this season Guerrero owns a .397 wOBA with a .269 ISO and is slugging the ball with a 48.8% hard hit rate. He’s been hitting in the two-hole and that premium spot at this price makes him downright filthy.
Christin Stewart – OF – Detroit Tigers – $2,600
Analysis: Stewart has a lot of pop and has been very unlucky against RH bats this year. He draws a premium matchup against Jose Urena, who has allowed a .342 wOBA with a 46% hard contact rate and a 1.32 HR/9. Stewart has a .220 ISO against righties this season with a .197 batting average, so he’s struggling a bit. But things are going to turn around for the rookie as he also owns a 50% flyball rate with a 41% hard hit rate and .236 BABIP. Stewart should hit somewhere in the middle of the order today.
Billy Hamilton – OF – Kansas City Royals – $2,500
Analysis: I am very much over the moon in playing Billy Hamilton lately. He consistently draws a 9-hole spot and will likely hit in front of a pitcher today on the road in Saint Louis. But here we are anyway. He just draws a great pitcher to hit against in Adam Wainwright, who since 2018, has allowed a .416 wOBA with a 47% hard hit rate allowed and a 2.41 HR/9 to lefties. I am not saying Hamilton is going to go yard here, but Wainwright is bad against lefties, Hamilton isn’t a great hitter, so we will have to see who wins out in the battle for futility. But mostly, if Hamilton gets on base, he’s got a great chance to fly.
Kris Bryant – 3B – Chicago Cubs – $4,300
Analysis: There are some big bats I like today too. And Kris Bryant is one of them. He falls into that whole “vs. Lefty always” category. Today the Cubs draw rookie Cole Irvin, a lefty who has had one start in the big leagues so far this season. But it’s Bryant who is elite against southpaws. Since 2018, Bryant owns a .440 wOBA, .361 ISO and 37% hard hit rate. He is a lefty assassin.
Jorge Polanco – SS – Minnesota Twins – $4,200
Analysis: Hey Matt Harvey is pitching today! You know what that means, right? Target lefty bats against him, no matter what. There’s some big pop in the Twins’ lineup, but it’s Polanco who is the most deadly lefty in this lineup. The switch-hitter owns a .426 wOBA, a .290 ISO and a 40% hard hit rate against RH pitching this season. As for Two-Face Harvey, he’s been dreadful against lefties this season, allowing a .395 wOBA, 55.9% hard hit rate allowed and a 1.89 HR/9. Dreadful.