Soooo, food poisoning/stomach bugs are no joke.
Tuesday night, something hit me like a Mike Tyson right hook and I was out, thus no Index for Wednesday.
But things are better, and like Little Mac, I am up before the 10 count.
This is the second Thursday in a row MLB has had more than 5 games on a main slate. Tonight we have 10.
And outside of Charlie Morton, there’s no way I even consider paying up for pitching tonight. More on who I like shortly.
So, check the weather and hope the Nats aren’t in some kind of dilemma on whether to play tonight.
But how about Max Scherzer? Broke his nose and pitched the next day, and wrecked shop. What a stud!
Now to the good stuff. Below is the daily worst xFIP pitcher table for handedness. Remember, current ERA is in parenthesis.
Pitcher xFIP vs. LH
1. Tanner Roark – Cincinnati Reds – 6.38 (4.91)
2. Glenn Sparkman – Kansas City Royals – 6.18 (5.19)
3. Jose Suarez – Los Angeles Angels – 6.05 (2.57)
4. Dylan Bundy – Baltimore Orioles – 5.37 (2.91)
5. Adam Wainwright – St. Louis Cardinals – 5.14 (7.16)
6. Clayton Richard – Toronto Blue Jays – 4.65 (3.38)
Pitcher xFIP vs. RH
1. Jimmy Nelson – Milwaukee Brewers – 7.31 (13.50)
2. Clayton Richard – Toronto Blue Jays – 5.97 (9.00)
3. Wade LeBlanc – Seattle Mariners – 5.69 (7.08)
4. Jose Suarez – Los Angeles Angels – 5.19 (6.00)
5. Tyler Chatwood – Chicago Cubs – 4.76 (2.86)
6. Jake Odorizzi – Minnesota Twins – 4.73 (2.40)
7. Glenn Sparkman – Kansas City Royals – 4.61 (3.20)
Here we go! Good luck!
HITTERS
Mike Trout – OF – Los Angeles Angels – $4,800
Analysis: So Trout and another guy I will get to in a bit are the top 2 hitters on today’s slate, and if I was mass entering lineups, they would both probably be around 90% ownership. Trout vs. a lefty is happening tonight and that lefty is Clayton Richard, who has allowed a .430 wOBA, 47% hard hit rate and a 1.80 HR/9. Trout vs. lefties: .415 wOBA, .289 ISO, 20.6 BB%. I mean, I don’t know why I even need to give any reasons for playing Trout!
Vlad Guerrero, Jr – 3B – Toronto Blue Jays – $2,800
Analysis: It’s only a matter of time before Vlad, Jr.’s numbers come around. Yes, he shows up here a lot, but he’s always cheap, hits in a premiere spot in this lineup and has all the upside in the world. We have all thought he would be the price where Yordan Alvarez is now. I think he still gets there by the end of the year. So tonight the Jays take on a young pitcher in lefty Jose Suarez. In a small sample size, Suarez owns a 5.19 xFIP against righties and a 2.00 HR/9. Vlad’s numbers against lefties are way down, but way BABIP’d: .263 wOBA, .188 BABIP, .171 ISO, 38% hard contact.
Giancarlo Stanton – OF – New York Yankees – $4,000
Analysis: Astros starting lefty Framber Valdez hasn’t been bad, but he also hasn’t faced a very strong righty-friendly power lineup like the Yankees. And much like Trout, Stanton is always in play against lefties, even if Stanton just came off the IL and is trying to get his feet under him still. Valdez has allowed 42% hard contact and a 3.60 xFIP (2.28 ERA). Since Stanton doesn’t really have much data for this year, his numbers against lefties since 2017 are as follows: .446 wOBA, .375 ISO, 49% hard contact. Yea, you play him.
