The Value Index is back at it, folks.
I missed Tuesday, so we will tackle this evening slate for DFS. We have 7 games on the main evening slate. We don’t have to worry about Coors either. You can get your fill with that setting in the early slate.
Tonight we have one stud pitcher to pay up for with a couple of mid-tier options that appear safe. The bottom of the barrel doesn’t look promising though and in fact will be where we will target bats against.
I am writing this a night before, so I will say this, if there is wind in Chicago, the Cubs are a smash value spot. They are priced like they are facing an elite Walker Buehler, and he’s been anything but elite. They might be a sneaky stack anyway regardless of wind blowing out or not. You can check out DFS weatherman Kevin Roth on Twitter for weather updates throughout the day tomorrow.
So now, let’s hit this 7-game slate! Remember, the pricing you see below comes from FanDuel.
PITCHERS
Eduardo Rodriguez – vs. Detroit Tigers – $8,400
Analysis: We didn’t get to use Chris Sale Monday night against the Tigers, and of course he gets the draw on the early game of the double-header Tuesday, and promptly strikes out 10 bats, slam dunk. We at least get another lefty against the Tigers who maybe doesn’t have the same ceiling but the same similar safety. The Tigers are bad and they continue to be bad against southpaws. They are 26th in wOBA with a .088 ISO and strike out 29% of the time. E-Rod is striking out left-handed batters at a 10.8 K/9 and righties at a 9.18 K/9. This price is still cheap considering our options today at the position.
Vincent Velasquez – at New York Mets – $7,500
Analysis: I will not go lower than Velasquez on FanDuel today and only for GPPs. He is facing a lefty-heavy Mets squad and Velasquez has struggled with lefties in his career and is striking them out this season less than a 7 K/9 clip. Should Nimmo, Conforto and Cano sit for some reason, I won’t be playing Velasquez outside of a few GPP lineups. If he gets into trouble, he could still limit damage, but get his pitch count up and be removed after 4 or 5 innings, limiting his safety for a QS and/or win. But if he’s on, he’s the value buster of the slate. The Mets are only 15th overall in team wOBA and strike out 22% of the time to right-handers, so the upside is there if Velasquez can stay out of trouble.
HITTERS
Justin Turner – 3B – Los Angeles Dodgers – $3,200
Analysis: Turner looks like he is starting to turn things around after a slow first few weeks of the season. He is starting to walk more and when that begins again, I take that as a sign of a player that is comfortable and not trying to force his swing. Turner has the BvP matchup of the day and it so happens to be against a lefty. Should the wind play a factor in the forecast for tomorrow at Wrigley, Turner will be a double-lock for me. Turner and the Dodgers draw Cole Hamels. Against Hamels in his career, Turner is 6-for-15 with a double, a home run, two walks and a steal. Turner is very good against lefties and Hamels is allowing a 49% hard contact rate with a 1.40 HR/9 rate this season to RH bats.
Mookie Betts – OF – Boston Red Sox – $4,000
Analysis: Betts is smoking and about to burst into flames I feel. He has 7 hits in his last 5 games, including 3 multi-hit efforts. He didn’t have a hit last night, but he drew 3 walks. He only has one home run and one double in that 5-game span, so while he’s hitting the ball, he’s not producing huge upside. I think today is the day he gets it done at a ridiculously low price for a 7-game slate. The Red Sox draw Tigers righty Tyson Ross, who is a reverse-splits pitcher. Betts can hit both sides of the plate very well, but Ross’ pitch types are all in Betts’ wheelhouse. Ross throws an 89-90 MPH fastball, a cutter and a slider. Since 2018, Betts owns a .501 wOBA and a .591 xwOBA against fastballs in 88-90 MPH range, he owns a .340 wOBA with a .447 xwOBA against cutters and a .339 wOBA with a .336 xwOBA against sliders. Betts’ ISOs in that order for those pitches are .500, .207 and .189 while his xISOs for those pitches in that same order are .606, .334 and .189. Ross owns a .362 wOBA and 2.25 HR/9 rate this season against RH pitching. The Red Sox are one of the best stacks on the board tonight.
Rhys Hoskins – 1B – Philadelphia Phillies – $4,300
Analysis: Hoskins against lefties this season: .430 wOBA, .278 ISO, 38% hard contact. Hoskins’ wOBA since 2018 against lefties with two-seamers, change-ups, knuckle curves and a slow-ass four-seam fastball: .444, .337, .230 and .776. Guess who throws those four pitches? Mets’ softy southpaw Jason Vargas. Guess who draws the start for the Mets against the Phillies tonight?
Robinson Cano – 2B – New York Mets – $3,500
Analysis: Cano has 13 hits in his last 10 games, including four multi-hit efforts in that span. His price has come up a bit for this slate, but I chalk that up to only having 7 games tonight. But he’s still not going to tip your salary cap limit at this price facing Vincent Velaquez, who has struggled with lefties bats all of his career. Cano is 0-for-2 with 2 walks in his career against Velasquez. That doesn’t mean a whole lot other than Cano will be adding to his sample size against the Phillies’ starter, who’s allowed a .366 wOBA and 1.53 HR/9 rate to left-handed hitters since 2018.
Gregory Polanco – OF – Pittsburgh Pirates – $3,400
Analysis: Polanco is back and ripping off those hits already. Doesn’t appear to have anything to work on with his timing. And it’s perfect timing, too, because he gets to rip into an inexperienced Arizona starting pitcher today. Facing off against starter Merrill Kelly, Polanco should draw a premium lineup spot once again today. Although the sample is small, lefties have been pummeling Kelly already this season as he has allowed a .413 wOBA, a 40% hard contact rate and a 1.13 HR/9 rate.
Gleyber Torres – SS – New York Yankees – $3,200
Analysis: Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts are two guys at the SS position who I really like today in their respective matchups. But then I saw this price for Torres, a cleanup hitter of a road team facing a dastardly awful starting pitcher in Felix Pena, and felt like this one this just too good to pass up. Pena has been really lucky against RH bats, dating back to last season. This year he has allowed just a .237 wOBA to righties, but also holds a 4.50 ERA and a 4.63 wOBA with a .182 BABIP while giving up 34% hard contact and a 1.12 HR/9 rate. Torres has been a little unlucky this season against righties, but still holds .222 ISO and 47% hard contact rate. Heart of the order, big power bat, awesome price.
Mike Ford – 1B – New York Yankees – $2,300
Analysis: Naturally, don’t have a write up Tuesday (which would’ve had Ford by the way), so I didn’t even think to consider him when building rosters hurriedly Tuesday evening, and he gets his first major league hits and one of them is a home run, against a righty who is porous against lefties. So we go back once against as Ford draws another great spot against a homerun prone righty in Felix Pena. Against lefties this season, Pena has allowed a .379 wOBA with a .217 BABIP, 46% hard contact rate and 2.89 HR/9 rate. He also owns a 6.70 xFIP, so yea, Pena is awful. Ford is going to open up your lineup and with the pop he showed Tuesday night, his minors numbers might be starting to translate to the majors.
