I’m not sure why Julius Randle was so popular on Wednesday night instead of Larry Nance. Luckily if you read my Hot Sheet yesterday you avoided the Randle debacle and were on Kyle Kuzma and Nance instead.
Thursday night’s five-game NBA slate appears that it could be a tough one to navigate. Pretty much every game has either a low Vegas total or could be a blowout and seven of the 10 teams are playing in the second game of a back-to-back. In fact, I only have nine players on my “Droppin’ Dimes” list tonight instead of the usual 10 as I couldn’t find a 10th man that I feel comfortable recommending as of this writing. Some players that I considered included Richaun Holmes, Denzel Valentine, Andrew Harrison and the “OG” (Anunoby).
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The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.
NOTE: The NBA Hot Sheet will not be written next week (Dec 25-29) due to Christmas vacation. It will return after the New Year. Happy Holidays to everyone!
Hot Sheet for December 21st
Droppin’ Dimes
LeBron James (CLE) – It is going to be hard to get away from playing James in every lineup you construct on Thursday. He is by far the top point-getter, he is coming off a loss and he gets a great matchup against the Bulls who have allowed the 2nd most points, 9th most rebounds and 5th most assists to opposing SFs this season. I’d be surprised if he didn’t post his fifth triple-double in his last seven games.
Kyrie Irving (BOS) – I debated between Irving and Kyle Lowry for this spot. My usual response is to take Lowry with a narrative of returning to Philly in a good matchup. However, I feel that Irving is just a better player right now and has more upside in a great matchup of his own against the Knicks who have allowed the 7th most points and 6th most rebounds over the last five games and the most assists to opposing PGs this season. So, I’m bringing LeBron and Kyrie back together, at least in my DFS lineup on Thursday night.
Tyreke Evans (MEM) – On short slates, I want to identify the player in the best situation given their matchup and salary for each team. For the Grizzlies, that player is Evans. Evans continues to play big minutes primarily as the PG with Mike Conley out and get a plus matchup against the up-tempo Suns who have allowed the 4th most points, 7th most rebounds and 7th most assists to opposing PGs this season.
Kris Dunn (CHI) – Dunn continues to be reasonably priced despite his consistently good play over the last few weeks. He posted another solid line with 15 points, six rebounds, seven assists and three steals last night for the red-hot Bulls. Dunn and company will have a hard time making it eight wins in a row tonight against the Cavaliers but Dunn should still produce a strong fantasy game against a team that has allowed the 8th most rebounds and 5th most assists to opposing PGs this season.
Serge Ibaka (TOR) – It feels like I should have more exposure to the Raptors than I do on my list tonight with a good matchup against the up-tempo Sixers but Ibaka’s price draws me to him as the top point per dollar option on the team. Ibaka has been on a roll with at least 15 points in each of his last eight games while chipping in a handful of boards and a couple blocks per game. The Sixers struggle some down low when Joel Embiid is out as they have allowed the 4th most points and rebounds to opposing PFs over the last five games. Electrify your lineup with Serge!
Lauri Markkanen (CHI) – Nikola Mirotic has been the better play at PF for the Bulls since he returned from injury but Mirotic’s salary is starting to rise to the point where he isn’t much of a value given his diminishing minutes with Markkanen’s return from injury. Markkanen is only averaging 9.5 points and 5.5 board in his last two games but his salary is significantly lower than Mirotic and he still possesses a similar floor and upside in a solid matchup against the Cavs who have allowed the 5th most points to opposing PFs this season.
Jeff Green (CLE) – Green has reached double-digit scoring in five of his last six games as he continues to carve out a nice role off the Cavaliers’ bench. Green also serves as a nice insurance policy, if James gets his minutes get cut short due to a blowout, Green would be the likely recipient of those minutes giving your full lineup a nice high-floor. Green has also averaged 15 points and five rebounds in two games versus the Bulls this season.
Jerryd Bayless (PHI) – If JJ Redick misses Thursday’s game then I expect Bayless to be the biggest beneficiary. If Redick is out, Bayless should play a lot of SG alongside TJ McConnell and get the better matchup against DeMar DeRozan at SG rather than Kyle Lowry at PG. The Raptors have allowed the 2nd most points to opposing SGs this season. If Redick suits up then he himself is a solid option and I have less trust in Bayless to exceed value.
Amir Johnson (PHI) – With Joel Embiid likely out on Thursday the usual suspects should be in line for more minutes and usage. I expect most people to immediately run to Richaun Holmes over Amir Johnson but given the matchup against the Raptors’ Jonas Valanciunas, look for Johnson to get more minutes than he has in recent games. The last time the Sixers faced a quality big man when Embiid was out was against the Pelicans (Dec 10th) and in that game, Johnson played 24 minutes and put up 16 points, five rebounds and four assists. He could flirt with a double-double with 24 minutes on Thursday.
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