Just a small four-game slate for Thursday night. On small slates, I want to try to identify the top player on each team giving their salary and matchup. Then attempt to roster as many of those players as possible to spread out my risk while giving me a lot of upside. The only team on the four-game slate that I didn’t recommend “that guy” for is the Rockets but if I had to choose one it would be Chris Paul.
With such a small slate, today’s NBA Hot Sheet will be FREE. Enjoy!
The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.
Hot Sheet for December 7th
Droppin’ Dimes
Joel Embiid (PHI) – Embiid destroyed the Lakers in their earlier meeting this season putting up 46 points, 15 rebounds, seven assists and seven blocks. While a repeat of that performance seems unlikely he should still feast on a Lakers’ defense that over their last five games has allowed the 9th most points and 6th most rebounds to opposing centers. Plus, I don’t think he likes the Lakers very much.
Paul George (OKC) – Sure, I’d love to pay up to get Russell Westbrook but since his recent performance his salary has spiked to a point where there are other “stud” options that have similar upside and don’t care as big of a price tag. So, I will pivot to George in OKC as the one to own. I expect the Thunder to try to get George going again in a very favorable matchup against the up-tempo Nets who have allowed the 10th most points and 5th most rebounds to opposing SFs this season.
UPDATE: With George ruled out for Thursday’s game, I’m going to look to pivot to his teammate Carmelo Anthony. Of course, Westbrook also becomes a stronger play, but like I said above in my George write-up, I still expect the Thunder to try to get other players going (aka Melo) in a favorable matchup against an up-tempo Nets’ team.
Donovan Mitchell (UTH) – Mitchell continues to impress. He has topped 21 points in four straight games while averaging 29.3 points during that stretch. He will face the up-tempo Rockets who are playing at the 4th highest rate over the last five games and have allowed the 10th most points to opposing SGs this season.
TJ Warren (PHO) – The offensive burden will need to shift in Phoenix with Devin Booker out. Warren is the next man up in the scoring pecking order for the Suns and should see an increase in his usage without Booker. Warren’s salary is still at a reasonable level for a player that should be taking at least 20 shots a night while Booker is out.
Richard Hollis-Jefferson (BKN) – Hollis-Jefferson has played really well this season when healthy averaging 14.1 points and 5.6 rebounds per game. His minutes are ramping back up after missing some time with an injury as he played 29 minutes on Monday while posting a double-double (16 points, 10 boards) against the Hawks. His matchup isn’t quite as good on Thursday against the Thunder but look for him to still post numbers similar to his season average which should allow him to hit 5x his salary.
JJ Redick (PHI) – I want to get more exposure to the Sixers in their matchup against the Lakers and Redick fits in nicely. He is averaging 33 minutes a game over his last 10 while averaging 17.0 points and 2.4 three-pointers per game. He will face a Lakers’ defense that has allowed the most three-point attempts to opposing SGs this season and the most points to the position as well which fits right into Redick’s game.
Jordan Clarkson (LAL) – My Laker of the day goes to Clarkson. While he doesn’t start he still typically plays at least 25 very productive minutes per game. He dropped 20 points, six rebounds and five assists on the Sixers earlier this season and could see an uptick in minutes if Lonzo Ball is not 100%.
Alec Burks (UTH) – Burks finally didn’t smash value in his last game against the Thunder with only 11 points and five assists. He gets a more favorable matchup on Thursday against the up-tempo Rockets who have allowed the 10th most points to opposing SGs this season. As long as Rodney Hood remains out, I’m going to keep putting Burks in my lineup at his current salary.
Markieff Morris (WAS) – Morris returns to Phoenix where he spent the first five seasons of his career, so there could be a little extra juice there. The more relevant reason to roster Morris is his increasing minutes, playing 28+ in two of his last three games with the only game under 28 coming in a blowout loss. He also walks into a sensational matchup against a Suns’ team that has allowed the most points and rebounds to opposing PFs this season.
Tyler Ulis (PHO) – Ulis should be the other main beneficiary in the Suns’ offense with Booker out. He has seen some spikes in his minutes recently and has performed well including a game with 37 minutes against the Sixers where he posted a double-double with 12 points and 12 assists just two games ago. Look for Ulis’ minutes to stay up around 30 with Booker out which should allow him to easily pay off his cheap salary.
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