Thursday has the smallest slate of the week with just five games on the NBA schedule. Despite the small slate, there are quite a few players that I like including some interesting gut call pivots that I have a feeling will produce. Enjoy today’s free NBA Hot Sheet!
The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.
Hot Sheet for February 1st
Droppin’ Dimes
Russell Westbrook (OKC) –James Harden has a tough matchup against the Spurs so I would only consider him if Chris Paul and Eric Gordon are ruled out. Giannis Antetokounmpo has a “value” salary on DK which makes him worth consideration there but the Wolves have a few different players they can throw at him defensively which gives me pause. So, that leaves us with Westbrook who strung together four straight games with 30+ points prior to an off-shooting night on Tuesday. Look for him to rebound (and assist and score) against the Nuggets. Also, overall, I’m not thrilled with the PGs on the slate which is another reason to consider using Westbrook as your stud for the night.
Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) – The stars should align for a monster game from Towns on Thursday against the Bucks. Towns is playing at home where he averages more points, rebounds and assists per game then he does on the road. He is an automatic double-double every night and should push those number even higher in a plus matchup against a weak Bucks’ interior defense which has allowed the 3rd most points and 7th most assists to opposing big men this season.
Blake Griffin (DET) – You may have to choose between the next two players on my list but I wanted to include them both as plays. Griffin is expected to play his first game with the Pistons and I expect him to start off with a bang. That said, I might shy away from him in Cash games but he is a good pivot off Aldridge in GPPs.
LaMarcus Aldridge (SA) – While Griffin is a wild card, Aldridge is a rock. He will continue to see a ton of offense run through him and he gets an up-tempo matchup against the Rockets which should translate into more touches and fantasy production. Another ho-hum game with 20+ points and 8+ boards is on the way.
DeMar DeRozan (TOR) – I expect many experts and DFS players to plug Bradley Beal into this salary slot at SG. However, I have a hunch (and some numbers) that leads me to believe DeRozan is the better play. DeRozan is the type of player who plays by the mantra “Anything you can do, I can do better”, so when he sees Beal jacking up shots for the Wizards without John Wall, I expect DeRozan to do the same on the Raptors side of the court. DeRozan has also already had success against the Wizards this season averaging 29.5 points, 6.0 rebounds and 4.5 assists in two previous meetings.
Otto Porter (WAS) – I do still want to have a Wizards’ player on my rosters and Porter should fit in nicely at the SF position with a reasonable salary and increased usage (+4.2%) when Wall is out. Porter put up 25 points in the previous game without Wall and has averaged 15.8 points per game without Wall this season (up from 13.0 with Wall).
Will Barton (DEN) – I’m not sure what it is but my model really likes Barton tonight against the Thunder. If you want to go safer then also consider Gary Harris. Barton has much bigger upside, however, and the Thunder have allowed the 5th most points to opposing SFs over their last five games.
Malcolm Brogdon (MIL) – With Eric Bledsoe doubtful for Thursday’s game against the Wolves, Brogdon should see an increase in minutes and usage while handling the ball more often than usual. His salary is very reasonable and he has shown some upside with a 32-point effort against the Suns last week. He will also likely draw an easier individual matchup against Jeff Teague rather than Wiggins or Butler.
Trey Lyles (DEN) – This spot was a coin flip for me between Lyles and Serge Ibaka for a similar salary. I’ll give the slight edge Lyles as he has shown a little more upside then Ibaka recently. With Mason Plumlee out, Lyles should get at least 25 minutes and he has averaged a solid 15.3 points and 7.3 boards over his last four games.
Wayne Selden (MEM) – The Grizzlies are a mess. Mike Conley out for the season, Tyreke Evans benched until he gets traded and a flurry of other players questionable for tonight’s game. Someone has to take the shots and produce for them and Selden appears to be the guy averaging 20.5 points over the last two games while playing 31 minutes in each contest. The matchup against the Pistons isn’t ideal but they have allowed more points and rebounds to opposing SGs over their last five games compared to their season averages.
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