Thursday may just be a four-game slate but there are a lot of question marks regarding who will play and who will sit out as of this writing on Thursday morning. Injury news will play a big role tonight (as it does most nights it the NBA) and could definitely change my recommendations. That said, as of now my gut feeling is that Jimmy Butler, Kristaps Porzingis and Garry Harris will sit out which opens up options on the Wolves, Knicks and Nuggets. There is also one other team that I’m targeting tonight. Find out who in today’s FREE NBA Hot Sheet.
The grid below is a snapshot of today’s slate that shows the overall rating for each position for each team. The numbers highlighted in red are the positions that are in the top 25% of their position for the slate and indicate good plays. Meanwhile, the numbers highlighted in blue are the positions that are in the bottom 25% of their respective position for the slate and are positions to avoid.
Hot Sheet for January 25th
Droppin’ Dimes
Russell Westbrook (OKC) – The decision at PG comes down to Westbrook and Steph Curry and who you choose likely depends on what site you are playing on. I prefer Westbrook on DraftKings for just $1,000 more than Curry and with higher upside and likelihood for a double-double and triple-double bonus points. Westbrook faces a Wizards’ team that his middle-of-the-pack against opposing PGs this season. Give Curry stronger consideration on FanDuel with a $2,000 cheaper price tag.
Nikola Jokic (DEN) – I expect Hassan Whiteside to be more popular than Jokic but I feel Jokic is in a better spot with more upside. Jokic has produced three double-doubles in his last four games and should post big scoring numbers on Thursday against a Knicks interior defense that has allowed the 6th most points to opposing centers this season and the most points in their last five games. He scored 28 points against the Knicks in their previous meeting this season.
Paul George (OKC) – The #AllStarSnub narrative is strong with big games from Andre Drummond and Ben Simmons last night, tonight it will be George’s turn to outproduce his averages to “show them” he should be an All-Star. It also doesn’t hurt that he faces a Wizards’ team that has allowed the 2nd most points and 3rd most steals to opposing SFs over their last five games.
Jamal Murray (DEN) – Murray is red-hot with 30+ points in back-to-back games. He put up 20 points on the Knicks in their previous meeting this season in New York and will now face the Knicks at home where Murray has averaged three more points per game this season. Meanwhile, Murray could see an increase in his secondary stats as the Knicks have given up the 3rd most assists and steals to opposing PGs this season. Murray also gets a small usage bump if Gary Harris sits out.
Steven Adams (OKC) – Adams has been a rebounding machine recently with double-digit boards in five straight games. During that stretch, he has averaged 15.8 points and 11.6 rebounds per game. The rebounding streak should continue on Thursday against the Wizards who have allowed the 7th most rebounds to opposing centers this season. Another double-double is well within reach for Adams.
Tim Hardaway Jr. (NY) – Hardaway Jr’s fantasy production can be hit-or-miss but his minutes have finally spiked back up into the 30s and he will see a usage increase if Porzingis misses Thursday’s game. He also has a decent matchup against a Nuggets’ team that has allowed the 7th most points to opposing SGs over their last five games. Hardaway is reasonably priced with a decent floor and major upside that you want on a short slate.
Michael Beasley (NY) – Beasley is only a marginal play if Porzingis takes the court tonight but he turns into a must-start if Porzingis is out against the Nuggets. In seven games without Porzingis this season, Beasley has averaged almost 29 minutes with 20.3 points, 5.1 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game.
Will Barton (DEN) – Much like Beasley, Barton is a solid play if Gary Harris plays but turns into an excellent option if Harris is out. He gets a slight bump in minutes and usage and faces a Knicks defense that has allowed top 12 production to opposing SFs in points and rebounds this season.
Taj Gibson (MIN) – Gibson’s value doesn’t change much regardless of if Jimmy Butler suits up for Thursday’s matchup with the Warriors or not. You can expect his usual production of about 12 points and seven boards with a couple of assists and a block and steal. He should see big minutes competing against Draymond Green and is a solid option at a tough PF position to fill.
Nemanja Bjelica (MIN) – Bjelica’s inclusion on the list is solely based on if Butler plays or not. If Butler plays, cross Bjelica off your list of options. If Butler sits, Bjelica should play about 35 minutes as he has done each of the last two games with Butler out. In those games, Bjelica is averaging 13.5 points and 8.0 rebounds. His price is on the rise but with those minutes and production, he will still hit about 5x his salary.
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