Can we get some late swap action on DraftKings?
My goodness was yesterday tilting. All 3 Cavs are supposed to sit, then they are active, but are we sure they are going to actually play? Oh, they start and play.. Well, alright then…
Short slate Tuesday, ungraded Value Index – Results: Awesome
Special Edition Thursday, graded Value Index – DISASTER.
It happens, right?
We can forget Thursday even happened and hope tonight’s 9-game slate yields positive results.
No Westbrook, No Harden, No LeBron.
Just Giannis, Boogie, Towns, Jokic and the Warriors’ tandem.
For the newbies: The Value Index is designed to provide 1 player at each of the 5 main positions that I feel is going to hit 5x or greater.
Point Guard
Eric Bledsoe – Phoenix Suns – vs. Chicago Bulls – $7,200
Analysis: Giannis is clearly the top play at PG tonight, or SF (because yes, he’s miraculously a SF for tonight, go figure), but lately we’ve seen Bledsoe’s price creep waaay down. I paid up for him a couple of times when his price was in the high $8K range, big mistake. Now after some down performances (one against Memphis), his price is now getting close to being sub-$6K. His minutes are weirdly below 30 the past two games, but one of those games was a blowout. I am hopeful that things tick back in the right direction at home against the Bulls, whose point guard situation is a mess. The Bulls allow 55.7 points per game to point guards this season. I like Derrick Rose a lot tonight, but it feels like chasing a big game with his price increasing quite a bit, though the matchup is stellar. I like Bledsoe as a solid rebound candidate and a late-night hammer.
Shooting Guard
Tim Hardaway, Jr. – Atlanta Hawks – vs. Sacramento Kings – $5,700
Analysis: Waiter, Butler and Wade are all questionable going into tonight, Booker has been struggling and could have a tough matchup should Jimmy Buckets play, and the rest of the available SGs do not make me comfortable. Tim Hardaway on the high end of the $5K range feels deadly…for my lineups. But he’s been heaving double-digit shot attempts in every game he’s played in the absence of Thabo Sefolosha, and thankfully, we get Hardaway against the Kings, who are one of the best teams to face for opposing SGs. Sacramento allows 43.9 fantasy points per game to shooting guards, Hardaway is third on the team in usage rate with Sefolosha off the court.
Small Forward
Brandon Ingram
Analysis: The Lakers have given the young rookie a hefty workload in the past three games and each time he has been a worthy value play. Now he gets his best matchup since receiving his expanded role when the Lakers take on the Jabari-less Bucks. Milwaukee has been providing gift after gift in the form of fantasy points to SFs, allowing 43.8 FPPG this season. Ingram is a superstar in the making and I really wish the Lakers would finally let off the leash the rest of the year and trade some of the older guys. We are almost at the All-Star break, it’s time to set Brandon Ingram free! For some reason, he’s been a comfortable play for me all year long and tonight is no different, especially if he continues to start and see the minutes above 30.
Power Forward
Julius Randle – Los Angeles Lakers – vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $5,400
Analysis: Coming off a terrible bout with pneumonia, Randle finally saw his first full allotment of minutes last time out. With a 30-minute game under his belt and an extra day or two of rest, I like the extremely depressed price we have for Julius tonight. At $5,400, Randle is a near-lock for me against a Bucks squad allowing 46.4 fantasy points per game to PFs, and that was with Jabari Parker playing most of the minutes. Now he’s gone and the likes of Teletovic and Beasley will have to fill the void. Randle has 40-point upside every game and he’s a steal at his price point tonight.
Center
Marcin Gortat – Washington Wizards – vs. Indiana Pacers – $6,100
Analysis: I feel like I have been getting kicked in the nuts by a few recent recommendations who have been models of consistency. I hope that doesn’t happen again with Gortat, who has paid off value in his last 7 games with at least 35.5 fantasy points in that span. Now he gets another date with Indiana, a team he has posterized for an average of 42 minutes and 40 fantasy points per game in two meetings. Bigs against Indy is a very real thing as the Pacers are allowing 49.9 points per game to opposing centers. There’s a good chance this game stays close and is one of my favorite games to target for stacks on this slate. Center is loaded tonight – Boogie, Jokic and Towns are all viable plays and Gortat could see a little lower ownership than he should.
